sure, I can see a Jordan Smith going right around a Josh Roenicke. I'm not saying who, but it'll happen. Since the team has more quantity than quality, it should try not to fall in love with particular players. There are too many major league holes to fill.
I think there are tiers in our system where the grouping of players really are just all falling in line with eachother. The top 4, then 5-10 are roughly in the same range, then 11-20, then 21-30, then 31-50 all seem to be in line with eachother.
Its not like that in all systems, but in the better systems in baseball, which the Reds likely have the #2/3 system in baseball behind just the Devil Rays and maybe the Red Sox (yeah, how does that one make you feel about competing for a WS over the next 10 years) there is definately a different set of talent. I am not saying don't trade certain guys, but there is certainly a large difference in trade value of a guy like Drew Stubbs/Todd Frazier have a much stronger value (although Frazier can't be traded yet) than someone much lower on the list and its not close to being able to substitute the players for guys in the 15+ range.
The big 4 + Maloney and Frazier leaves you with one of those guys rated in the same ballpark as the #25 guy.... while I have Maloney higher now (thanks to a more up to date scouting report than I have when I put out my Top 40) at around 13-15, I don't see him being anywhere near Frazier in terms of talent or value. I get that he had success in the upper minors, but I don't see it projecting all that well to the majors (4/5 type guy with a 1.40 WHIP and a 4.75 or so ERA). While that is valuable, I don't have that in the same type of grouping as a Todd Frazier or the Big 4 (or several others for that matter).
Well I didn't include Votto in my rankings because his career as a minor leaguer is assuredly over. So if you look at my rankings, the 6-25 tier excludes those guys + Maloney and Frazier.
That said, I do like Maloney a lot better than anyone else in the system right now, with the exception of those guys listed above.
The only reason I stopped at 25 is because I only listed 25 players. I agree, the third tier could probably be expanded much beyond that.
Last edited by Benihana; 12-27-2007 at 02:44 PM.
Go BLUE!!!
I have it as the Big 4, then Lotzkar and Frazier, then Maloney
Domo Arigato, Here Comes Joey Votto
---TRF
"I do what I want to do and say what I want to say."
--Bronson Arroyo
that's very reasonable, but Lotzkar/Frazier/Maloney is based on VERY little data: Maloney's post-Phils run, Frazier's draft status and handful of Dayton atbats, and Lotzkar's draft status and handful of innings at Billings. Nice indicators, but very flawed.
things always change a lot. But in this organization, with our depth but lack of high end players in the 6-10 range, they'll change even more.
good time to trade
Hmm, I like the idea here.
#'s 1,4,5,12-14,16,19-22,24-25 I agree with.
#2 Bailey - I agree mostly assuming he has any command or approach issues lingering in ST. If he still insists on throwing his FB almost exclusively then he goes to AAA and stays until he works it out. If those things look reasonable in ST then he stays with the big club into and beyond OD.
#3 Cueto - I think he goes to AAA to start the season and perhaps comes up as the 5th starter when we go to a 5 man rotation. I assume we may start with a 4 man but I don't know how Dusty will handle those type of things.
#6 Roenicke - I think it's quite possible he starts out in AA and skips to AAA after a short time getting re-adjusted. Probably to AAA in June. I doubt he get's his cup of coffee this yr until Sept. unless the pen struggles again. I am hoping we don't need him until then.
#7 Stubbs - I may be all alone on this idea but I think given his age and struggles in the past I skip a tougher to hit in FSL and send him to start out in Chattanooga. If he can hit there (I think he can) there's no reason to have him ever play in Sarasota. If he is able to continue where he left off in Dayton then he may end the season in AAA, priming him for a shot at a Griffey-less '09 OF.
#8 Wood - I think he may very well go to AA to start, but I am fine with him starting at A+ assuming that he is in line for a quick promotion if all goes well. I am assuming/hoping he will be in AA rather quickly.
#'s 9,10 & 19 (Lotzkar, Mesoraco and Soto) I start off in Dayton and if they do well I keep them there. If they don't then I send them to Billings upon their start of the season. I may do that regardless with Soto and Mesoraco so they can get more PT.
#11 Dorn - I am with you on this but I could see him possibly starting in AAA. I would like to see him improve some vs. LHP 1st but I think he could pull it off in AAA right off.
#15 Francisco - I agree with A+ but only because we have so many guys behind him that need the PT in Dayton. Otherwise I don't think he has learned enough discipline to play in Sarasota. Hopefully he proves me wrong but I don't see it happening.
#17 Waring - I keep him at dayton unless he goes crazy at the plate for an extended period of time. I imagine he and Francisco could be switching 3rd base bags by July 1st, but it's more likely that they will both end the year in Dayton in some capacity. Juan in LF??
#23 Herrera - I start him at AA for a brief stint for the same reasons as Roenicke, however I would be fine with him starting at AAA as well. His makeup gives him a chance to fall on his face perhaps at AAA and still battle back if demoted.
Some other guys who I am also watching for are Cumberland, Castro, Henry, Manuel (could jump quickly), Jukich, Dickerson.
On the Dayton IF to start the season I see this. At least until Frazier proves he cannot play SS and then I make the necc. changes. Moving Cozart back and Frazier platooning 3rd and COF along with Waring. And perhaps a guy like Angel Cabrera could play some 2B in that scenario.
McKennon 1B
Cozart 2B
Frazier SS
Waring 3B
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
pitchers deserve patience, but Mesoraco and Stubbs jump to mind as guys that could wash out completely next year
So far as I can tell, Bbusst has played only six good weeks during the last three years, while Mesoraco has played only six good weeks during his entire life (which fortunately/unfortunately came right before last year's draft)
I give Dorn more props than #11. He has shown the ability/discipline that a GM has to be impressed with. Stubbs needs to show me continued improvement. (He may have been stunted by leading off, having done better a few spots down in the order). That's the organizations' fault if so. Some of the good hitting IF could well end up better suited to OF spots as well. And oh yeah, watch Bartles. He surprised at GCL/Pioneer. It's a wonderful thing to have so many high ceiling young players!
On the Dayton IF to start the season I see this. At least until Frazier proves he cannot play SS and then I make the necc. changes. Moving Cozart back and Frazier platooning 3rd and COF along with Waring. And perhaps a guy like Angel Cabrera could play some 2B in that scenario.
McKennon 1B
Cozart 2B
Frazier SS
Waring 3B[/QUOTE]
Where does Soto play in this scenario? Im thinking someone has to skip to A+, maybe Soto?
Domo Arigato, Here Comes Joey Votto
---TRF
"I do what I want to do and say what I want to say."
--Bronson Arroyo
I disagree with your assessment of Frazier and Wood as having high ceilings. Frazier is projected as a solid hitter (.280+ with 20/25 HRs) - which is ML average for 3B (I do not think he shows the ability to become a ML shortstop). I don't know what Wood is projected as because he doesn't command a consistent quality breaking pitch. If he doesn't develop a breaking pitch - he's bullpen bound. If his velocity does not return to the 2005 93-94 mph, his ceiling will be that of a middle reliever. His whole future rides on developing a good breaking pitch for 2008.
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