Baseball America Top 10 List

[Kc61]

I agree with the BA selection of Billy Hamilton second.

Given that BA is so tools/future oriented, surprised Yorman didn't get in there.

[redsfandan]

Yeah, if all you do is scroll down the OBP column, I can see that. But he did OPS .753 this year as a 21-year-old in High-A and AA. He's never batted below .272 over a season (since an abbreviated first year in '08). Not bad for a young shortstop. From what's been written on these boards over the recent years, it seems like he's always been considered a pretty good offensive player.

I'm not saying that he's a bad prospect. And I might be underrating him some. But, I just don't understand ranking him 8th and Yorman doesn't even make the cut.

[Benihana]

I wonder how many of these will make BA's Top 100 list. I would think:

Mesoraco Top 25
Hamilton 25-50
Alonso 25-50
Grandal 75-100
Cozart 75-100

I'd be surprised (pleasantly) if Corcino and Stephenson made the cut.

[mth123]

BA is still the best at this, but there is enough history to see that they have some consistent blind spots.

They always put the most recent number 1 pick in the top ten. The fact he's only number 7 speaks fairly highly of the system IMO.

Hamilton was not going to drop from last year coming off of a 100 SB season (though I have him at 10 personally).

I'm guessing Yorman moving to a corner dropped his stock more than anything.

A couple of years ago Frazier was number 1 based on the absurd notion that he could be an every day second baseman. I think he stayed in the top 10 just because of that.

Sappelt won't get love from a place like BA and I'm not surprised he's missing.

Surprised by Didi in the top 10, but its not really out of the question. Defensive specialists at SS make lists like this all the time. Guys who can legitimately play SS at the major league level have some value without much regard to how they hit. Toss in the youth and he'll get a lot of love.

I'm sure BA is biased against a little guy like Torreyes. I wonder how they would have ranked Joe Morgan?

[New Fever]

I wonder how many of these will make BA's Top 100 list. I would think:

Mesoraco Top 25
Hamilton 25-50
Alonso 25-50
Grandal 75-100
Cozart 75-100

I'd be surprised (pleasantly) if Corcino and Stephenson made the cut.

From the BA chat:
@Jaypers413 (IL): How many of the top 10 would you nominate for the top 100?
J.J. Cooper: I think the top four are pretty safe bets, and I'd be comfortable saying that Cozart will likely make it as well. Corcino has a chance too, so I'd say probably five make it, maybe six.

[New Fever]

BA is still the best at this, but there is enough history to see that they have some consistent blind spots.

They always put the most recent number 1 pick in the top ten. The fact he's only number 7 speaks fairly highly of the system IMO.

Hamilton was not going to drop from last year coming off of a 100 SB season (though I have him at 10 personally).

I'm guessing Yorman moving to a corner dropped his stock more than anything.

A couple of years ago Frazier was number 1 based on the absurd notion that he could be an every day second baseman. I think he stayed in the top 10 just because of that.

Sappelt won't get love from a place like BA and I'm not surprised he's missing.

Surprised by Didi in the top 10, but its not really out of the question. Defensive specialists at SS make lists like this all the time. Guys who can legitimately play SS at the major league level have some value without much regard to how they hit. Toss in the youth and he'll get a lot of love.

I'm sure BA is biased against a little guy like Torreyes. I wonder how they would have ranked Joe Morgan?

Also from the chat:


Kyle (Oxford): How close was Yorman Rodriguez to making the list? Have his tools dropped off at all, or is he falling because of makeup concerns? His production in the MWL didn't seem all that bad for his age.

J.J. Cooper: One follow-up question on Rodriguez. If you just look at his numbers, it doesn't look all that bad. But it's hard to find a decent report from someone who actually watched him play last year. He has the tools to be a center fielder, but he had to be moved to right field because he showed so little effort in center field (something that doesn't exactly make you popular with your pitchers). He can run well, but it's hard to find a scout who could make much of an evaluation on his speed because he rarely ran at full speed. If the light bulb comes on and he realizes how good he could be, he could really be something, but right now, he's shown no indication that he will do the things necessary to turn his raw tools into on-field production. The tools are still there, and he is still young, but he's further away now than he was a year ago. The most damning way to put it is that the Dayton Dragons became a much better team once Rodriguez was no longer playing. Contrast that to Ronald Torreyes who made the team significantly better when he arrived.

Cale32 (Roanoke, VA): JJ - Thanks for the chat. Where do you think Hamilton winds up defensively? His speed is game changing, but from the peoople you spoke to do you think he will have enough bat to be more than a utility type? Would Luis Castillo be a good comp.?

J.J. Cooper: I know there are a lot of people who follow prospects intently who are ready to write off Hamilton as a hitter, but the scouts I talk to aren't nearly as ready to do that. For one thing, we have to remember that this isn't 2002, so the power numbers aren't what they used to be. The averages for a big league shortstop last year were .261/.314/.374. Hamilton could do better than that if he continues to develop. Also, he's showing significant improvements at the plate in both his swing mechanics and his approach month by month. If you compared Hamilton in April to Hamilton in August, he was a completely different hitter, one who went from being helpless from the left side to being a useful hitter from that side. I've had scouts outside of the Reds organization project him as a future 60 hitter. He's never going to hit for power, and again, if this was a decade ago, that would be a big problem. It's not nearly as much of a problem these days.

[New Fever]

Harry (NJ): Does the "little red machine", aka Ron Torreyes, get consideration in your top 30?

J.J. Cooper: You can't help but love Torreyes. His size will always be a question, but man he can hit, and he's solid defensively. If everything breaks right, he's an everyday second baseman. If it doesn't there are plenty of scouts who think he could handle SS and 3B well enough to be a useful utilityman.

Greg (ohio): Hoe did you decide on Billy Hamilton at #2 when there are major league ready prospects below him on the list?

J.J. Cooper: Our rankings are based on a combination of factors, one of which is looking at how they are valued by teams around baseball. Yes, Todd Frazier is much readier for the big leagues than Billy Hamilton, but I feel safe in saying that the vast majority of teams would rather have Hamilton than Frazier in a trade. Frazier is a potential solid big leaguer. But scouts for other teams think that Hamilton can be an impact player, especially now that the game is getting away from its POWER-POWER-POWER era and entering a lower-scoring environment. Teams covet up-the-middle guys, which makes Hamilton, Mesoraco and Grandal very valuable. As one scout described it to me, if you have a tie between a catcher and a first baseman, you'll never go wrong to pick the catcher. Yes, you can point out now that I put Alonso just ahead of Grandal.

Greg (ohio): Dave Sappelt get any consideration for the top 10, considering Drew Stubbs terrible offensive season

J.J. Cooper: He was considered, but it wasn't that close. Sappelt already is a big leaguer, and I think he'll have a big league career, but he can't play center field well enough to play it as a regular, and I don't think he'll hit enough to be a regular as a left fielder. With the Reds his problem is that Chris Heisey is simply better. Heisey can play center every day, Sappelt can't. Heisey runs better, has a better arm and has more power. Sappelt may have a better hit tool than Heisey, but even that is pretty close. He could end up being a fourth outfielder for either Cincinnati or someone else.

[dougdirt]

Greg (ohio): Dave Sappelt get any consideration for the top 10, considering Drew Stubbs terrible offensive season

J.J. Cooper: He was considered, but it wasn't that close. Sappelt already is a big leaguer, and I think he'll have a big league career, but he can't play center field well enough to play it as a regular, and I don't think he'll hit enough to be a regular as a left fielder. With the Reds his problem is that Chris Heisey is simply better. Heisey can play center every day, Sappelt can't. Heisey runs better, has a better arm and has more power. Sappelt may have a better hit tool than Heisey, but even that is pretty close. He could end up being a fourth outfielder for either Cincinnati or someone else.

I strongly disagree with this. On defense, the only thing Heisey is better at than Sappelt is throwing strongly. Sappelt has more range and their gloves are both just fine. At the plate, I don't believe for a second that Heisey has "a close" hit tool to Sappelt. Heisey has better power, but Sappelt is the better offensive player and I don't think its that close. Heisey struggles to make contact and doesn't walk much. That means he is going to have a lower average and lower OBP.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I'm sure BA is biased against a little guy like Torreyes. I wonder how they would have ranked Joe Morgan?

I'm going to hope that you're only comparing them due to their height. Because I'm a big Torreyes fan...but pulling the Morgan card might be a tad overboard.

[mth123]

I'm going to hope that you're only comparing them due to their height. Because I'm a big Torreyes fan...but pulling the Morgan card might be a tad overboard.

Of course. I wouldn't compare any prospect to a HOF player. The point is I think BA has a bias against guys who aren't physical studs (and that isn't out of the question). I'd bet if BA was around in 1965, Joe Morgan wouldn't have been on any top 10 lists coming off of an OPS of .953 in 601 AA PAs.

[fearofpopvol1]

I agree with the BA selection of Billy Hamilton second.

I disagree. I think he was overrated here some. If Hamilton sticks at SS, and it is a big IF, then maybe. But that has to be settled.

[mth123]

IMO, putting too much emphasis on the maturity issues of an 18 year old kid doesn't make sense. Kids sometimes do things when they are kids because kids are generally immature. IMO, the much bigger issue with Y-Rod's value is the fact that the Reds no longer seem to view him as a CF. As a CF a .750 OPS would make him pretty darn valuable. As a corner guy, it makes him a 4th OF. There is a lot more pressure on his bat if he's relegated to a corner. Until he shows some .850+ OPS seasons in a full season league, its hard for me to put him in the top 10 as a corner. I know he has tools, but there are lots of guys with great tools who never do anything. His youth and the fact that he's playing in a full season league at all gives him a lot of extra credit and puts him on the list, but the Reds have a lot of pretty good prospects and I can't put him that high on youth and tools alone considering the competition.

[redsfandan]

Surprised by Didi in the top 10, but its not really out of the question. Defensive specialists at SS make lists like this all the time. Guys who can legitimately play SS at the major league level have some value without much regard to how they hit. Toss in the youth and he'll get a lot of love.

Fair enough. I just can't value a guy that looks like a possible mlb backup that highly considering the Reds minor league depth.

Greg (ohio): Hoe did you decide on Billy Hamilton at #2 when there are major league ready prospects below him on the list?

J.J. Cooper: Our rankings are based on a combination of factors, one of which is looking at how they are valued by teams around baseball. Yes, Todd Frazier is much readier for the big leagues than Billy Hamilton, but I feel safe in saying that the vast majority of teams would rather have Hamilton than Frazier in a trade. Frazier is a potential solid big leaguer. But scouts for other teams think that Hamilton can be an impact player, especially now that the game is getting away from its POWER-POWER-POWER era and entering a lower-scoring environment. Teams covet up-the-middle guys, which makes Hamilton, Mesoraco and Grandal very valuable. As one scout described it to me, if you have a tie between a catcher and a first baseman, you'll never go wrong to pick the catcher. Yes, you can point out now that I put Alonso just ahead of Grandal.

I would love it if Hamilton can help the Reds get a #1 or #2 starting pitcher.

I disagree. I think he was overrated here some. If Hamilton sticks at SS, and it is a big IF, then maybe. But that has to be settled.

If Hamilton can't stay in the middle infield then it's possible that the Reds may decide to take advantage of his speed and use him in the outfield. Maybe it shouldn't matter but a move to center hurts his value, in my eyes, a little.

[mth123]

Where BA ranked these guys the last three years

Name	11	10	'09
Mes' 	1	3	30
Hamtn	2	2	11
Alonso	3	4	2
Grandal	4	6	N/A
Cozart	5	8	10
Corcino	6	15	N/A
Stephsn	7	N/A	N/A
Didi	8	19	15
Frazier	9	9	1
Box'ger	10	18	9

[redsof72]

Also from the chat:


Kyle (Oxford): How close was Yorman Rodriguez to making the list? Have his tools dropped off at all, or is he falling because of makeup concerns? His production in the MWL didn't seem all that bad for his age.

J.J. Cooper: One follow-up question on Rodriguez. If you just look at his numbers, it doesn't look all that bad. But it's hard to find a decent report from someone who actually watched him play last year. He has the tools to be a center fielder, but he had to be moved to right field because he showed so little effort in center field (something that doesn't exactly make you popular with your pitchers). He can run well, but it's hard to find a scout who could make much of an evaluation on his speed because he rarely ran at full speed. If the light bulb comes on and he realizes how good he could be, he could really be something, but right now, he's shown no indication that he will do the things necessary to turn his raw tools into on-field production. The tools are still there, and he is still young, but he's further away now than he was a year ago. The most damning way to put it is that the Dayton Dragons became a much better team once Rodriguez was no longer playing. Contrast that to Ronald Torreyes who made the team significantly better when he arrived.

That might be the most spot-on report on a prospect that I have ever seen from Baseball America.