Wild Card One Game Play-In

[BungleBengals]

After the last 2 starts by Wainwright, I wonder what would happen if we meet the Cardinals in a one game play-in.

I would think that if there is no chance to take the division then the Reds would rework the rotation to get Latos the start, but if we faced the Cardinals, do you think they would put Wainwright out there?

He is obviously their ace, but we have knocked him around in his last 2 starts. Who else would they put out there?

[Cedric]

Latos is scheduled to pitch last on the 24th barring any changes. He would be th clear starter for the Reds. I don't think the cardinals have any options that are better than Wainright even with his recent struggles. Their rotation is pretty weak and I bet they gamble their ace would come up big after two clunkers.

[MillerTime58]

They would use Wainwright or Shelby Miller. IIRC, last year they used Kyle Lohse in the 1 game playoffs vs the Braves when they had plenty of time to line up their rotation for Waino to pitch it. Unless Lohse was their clear #1 last year (I know he had good stats but don't remember if he was their best starter), there is precedence for them not lining up their ace.

[Chip R]

Here's a question: Say the Cards have the division locked up by Sunday and the Bucs and Reds are tied. Both teams make the postseason but it's just a matter of the winner getting home field advantage. If Cedric is correct and Latos is scheduled to pitch last on the 24th, would you start him on that Sunday to get home field advantage for the playoff game?

[redsfaninbsg]

Here's a question: Say the Cards have the division locked up by Sunday and the Bucs and Reds are tied. Both teams make the postseason but it's just a matter of the winner getting home field advantage. If Cedric is correct and Latos is scheduled to pitch last on the 24th, would you start him on that Sunday to get home field advantage for the playoff game?

No.

[scott91575]

They would use Wainwright or Shelby Miller. IIRC, last year they used Kyle Lohse in the 1 game playoffs vs the Braves when they had plenty of time to line up their rotation for Waino to pitch it. Unless Lohse was their clear #1 last year (I know he had good stats but don't remember if he was their best starter), there is precedence for them not lining up their ace.

Lohse was their best starter and Wainwright had a very poor year for him. Wainwright turned it around in July/August but then had a somewhat poor September.

BTW...not sure people realize this or not, but the Reds have hit Wainwright pretty well throughout his career. Wainwright's career ERA vs. the Reds is 5.11 in 93 innings (so not a small sample size). Even before these last two games his ERA vs. the Reds was around 4. Oh, and he also struggles vs. the Pirates (5.11 ERA also, and that is in 111 innings).

[scott91575]

No.

I agree with this, but I would add "oh dear God" in front of the no.

[Billy Hamilton's Legs]

Latos is scheduled to pitch last on the 24th barring any changes. He would be th clear starter for the Reds. I don't think the cardinals have any options that are better than Wainright even with his recent struggles. Their rotation is pretty weak and I bet they gamble their ace would come up big after two clunkers.

They would most ilkely put Wainwright up there, but their rotation is far from weak. Shelby Miller has been incredible, Lynn has been better than his ERA would let you think, and Wacha has been solid. I think I take the Reds rotation over theirs, but it's not as clear of an advantage as you might think.

[Billy Hamilton's Legs]

Here's a question: Say the Cards have the division locked up by Sunday and the Bucs and Reds are tied. Both teams make the postseason but it's just a matter of the winner getting home field advantage. If Cedric is correct and Latos is scheduled to pitch last on the 24th, would you start him on that Sunday to get home field advantage for the playoff game?

Good question, I'd be tempted to say yes if Bailey would be ready for the play-in game.

[NCCardfan]

Lohse was their best starter and Wainwright had a very poor year for him. Wainwright turned it around in July/August but then had a somewhat poor September.

BTW...not sure people realize this or not, but the Reds have hit Wainwright pretty well throughout his career. Wainwright's career ERA vs. the Reds is 5.11 in 93 innings (so not a small sample size). Even before these last two games his ERA vs. the Reds was around 4. Oh, and he also struggles vs. the Pirates (5.11 ERA also, and that is in 111 innings).

Lohse really was the Cards best starter last year overall. He was the obvious WC game starter because of consistency, if he had an off night STL would've probably only been down by 3-4 runs instead of by 6-8.

This year really is a weird one, today I wouldn't mind seeing Joe Kelly starting the WC game if need be, he has been more consistant in the last month than AW, SM, LL has.

Bailey or Latos would work for CIN in the WC game, IMO it would be a coin flip with no real downside.

[BluegrassRedleg]

The home field question is a difficult one for me. The Reds seem to fare better, offensively, in the Great American Bandbox, but I get really nervous whenever a good hitting team like the Cards roll in there. Part of me thinks our better chance would be in a bigger ballpark with our ace on the hill.

[PuffyPig]

Here's a question: Say the Cards have the division locked up by Sunday and the Bucs and Reds are tied. Both teams make the postseason but it's just a matter of the winner getting home field advantage. If Cedric is correct and Latos is scheduled to pitch last on the 24th, would you start him on that Sunday to get home field advantage for the playoff game?

You'd be starting him on short rest, so of course no.

[PuffyPig]

The home field question is a difficult one for me. The Reds seem to fare better, offensively, in the Great American Bandbox, but I get really nervous whenever a good hitting team like the Cards roll in there. Part of me thinks our better chance would be in a bigger ballpark with our ace on the hill.

The Reds record, home and away, suggests otherwise.

[Chip R]

You'd be starting him on short rest, so of course no.

4 days rest is short rest?