For the reasons I have mentioned in this post already.Originally Posted by bucksfan2
And TRF, For Votto's true skillset to be a 1.050 OPS guy he would need to be on the same level as Albert Pujols. He just isn't no matter how badly we want him to be.
Why can't he be? I know everything says he won't be that great of a player. He may be a very good player, just not great. But every great player had a starting point. If half way through Pujols first season someone said he would be a perennial 1.000+ OPS player you would have laughed. We all would have said his skill level just isn't that high.
I realize what I am saying is pretty illogical but in reality all the great players have defied logic. Every great player has a starting point and every great player has bunch of people saying he will regress or he just isn't that good. The problem with that sentiment, is that the great players are that good.
I guess my point is you don't really know what the ceiling of Votto's true skill set is.
Sure, I don't really know, but all of the data of his entire career suggests its not likely. We can look at him play and see that its not likely. We can look at the numbers and see that it isn't likely.
Really, what about his offensive play can you point to right now as a weakness? What are you seeing with the eyes that say he can't sustain that high an OPS?
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
Its not a weakness that he has. Its just that the guy isn't GREAT at multiple things. He doesn't have a great walk rate. He doesn't have great power. He doesn't have great plate discipline. He is good at all of those things. He isn't great at any of them and everyone on the list is great at the very least of 1 thing listed in there and mostly two of them.
There have been 76 players since 1960 with 400 PA and an OPS of 1.050 in the Majors. If we toss Votto in with that group he has the 3rd worst K/BB at 1.63. More than half of the players on the list are better than 1.00. Votto has the 10th worst HR/PA. Votto has the 10th worst K rate. Votto has the 6th worst walk rate.
The average of the 76 players have a 17.2% walk rate, nearly 6% higher than Votto's. The average K rate is 14%, 4.6% lower than Votto's. The average HR rate was every 15.3 PA, 4.4 better than Votto's.
Votto currently just doesn't have the skillset right now and honestly, isn't likely to get it. The guys on this list are the best of the best or played in Colorado and were still very good players (Walker and Helton).
Last edited by dougdirt; 07-18-2009 at 02:04 AM.
His career isn't stagnant. From what I have seen in Votto he is constantly improving. His power may not be "great" but he has the look of a 30HR hitter. Power really isn't the issue because we have seen him hit some blasts. I can see him topping out around 40 HRs in a season but most of the time staying around 30. Not a great power hitter, but pretty darn good when you consider his overall game.
I was looking at Votto's career numbers as well as his 162 game career average. In almost every category he is trending upwards. He is constantly improving. He has become a much better all around hitter this year from last years season.There have been 76 players since 1960 with 400 PA and an OPS of 1.050 in the Majors. If we toss Votto in with that group he has the 3rd worst K/BB at 1.63. More than half of the players on the list are better than 1.00. Votto has the 10th worst HR/PA. Votto has the 10th worst K rate. Votto has the 6th worst walk rate.
The average of the 76 players have a 17.2% walk rate, nearly 6% higher than Votto's. The average K rate is 14%, 4.6% lower than Votto's. The average HR rate was every 15.3 PA, 4.4 better than Votto's.
Votto currently just doesn't have the skillset right now and honestly, isn't likely to get it. The guys on this list are the best of the best or played in Colorado and were still very good players (Walker and Helton).
I just don't understand where you say he doesn't have the skill set. He isn't a finished product. He has several things going for him that most good to great hitters have. He has good splits against both righties and lefties. He has the ability to hit the ball well to all fields. He is a patient hitter at the plate and a very good 2 strike hitter. He has the power, its just a question of where it will top out. If he increases his walk rate a little bit while decreasing his K's, which I defiantly can see happening, he can become a great hitter. I just think it is a little premature to say Votto doesn't have the skill set to be as good as he has been this year.
I really don't think its premature to suggest it. Votto has NEVER shown the great abilities at any step of the way. He has shown good, above average abilities, but never great.
Bonds, McGwire, Howard, Mantle, Arod, Thome, Belle, Pujols, Walker, Helton, Aaron, Palmeiro, Chipper, McCovey, Vlad, Manny, Sheffield, Thomas, Giambi, Griffey, Bagwell, Giles, Edgar Martinez....
All of those guys had a GREAT skill along with very good other ones if not other GREAT skills. Joey Votto just doesn't seem to have those. He isn't a guy who is going to walk 100+ times a year. He isn't a guy who is going to hit 40+ HR's a year.
If we limit it to 500 at bats since 1960, only 11 players have not hit 40 HR's and have OPS'd over 1.050. Only Fred Lynn and Lance Berkman didn't walk 100+ times while not hitting 40 HR. Berkman hit 55 doubles, 5 triples and 34 HR's while walking 92 times. Lynn had 42 doubles, 1 triple and 39 HR while walking 82 times and striking out just 79 times.
Joey just hasn't shown a skillset like that. Anywhere. Not in the minors. Not in the majors. The only thing he has shown that allows him to OPS over 1.000 is a .400+ BABIP.
And of course Votto's numbers look like they are trending upwards.... he has a .405 BABIP this year. Votto has increased his power slightly this year, but he is also striking out more than last season. Thats going in the wrong direction.
Last edited by dougdirt; 07-18-2009 at 11:55 AM.
What skill does Brian Giles have that Votto doesn't? I just don't agree completely with you Doug. I agree he isn't likely to improve his power much in his prime years I can't see him topping say 35. I see him in the 25-30 group for the most part. However his plate discipline is outstanding, and just because he prefers to hit his way on base shouldn't subtract from them. His skill as I see it is bat control which is an important skill to have. I think his strength lies in his plate discipline and his ability to square a ball and hit it hard. I think he's a .300 hitter or a little above who will walk 60-80 times a year with 25ish HR's and 40ish doubles. So whatever that comes up to OPS wise I guess is what I see for him.
That may not be Pujols good but I submit that I don't realistically see Alonso being much better if at all. He could be but he doesn't run as well as Votto and who knows if he will ever actually tap into all of his power potential, as of right now he is still primarily an opposite field hitter and if he remains that way I don't see any more power numbers from him than Votto. If he starts using the whole field great but until then he's not potentially any better IMO. I do believe however that Votto despite the OPS will remain as productive if not moreso than Alonso because Votto like all great hitters puts the ball in play with good success, and I don't think that it's luck.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
Your numbers for Votto (and, I guess, Alonso) are significantly below the 1.000+ OPS. I think, in his prime years, Votto might actually hit 35 homers (assuming health), with a BA over 320 and 75-90 BBs (if only because he's the only real bat in the Cincinnati lineup). That's scratching the floor of a 1.000 OPS.
And I agree with your Alonso analysis, BTW. Not enough power and really weak so far against southpaws. If he improves those numbers significanty, I might see the idea of him improving.
This isn't the forum for Joey Votto discussion. Please get this thread back on topic.
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