Who is Redszone's #23 prospect?

[dougdirt]

Doug, he is worthy of being a top 15 guy on my list. Hope that's OK with you.

Sure, its fine with me. I am just trying to figure out your evaluation. If you don't want to talk it out with me any further, that is fine.

[lollipopcurve]

Sure, its fine with me. I am just trying to figure out your evaluation. If you don't want to talk it out with me any further, that is fine.

Why should I? You played teacher and marked a red X next to my thoughts.

[dougdirt]

Why should I? You played teacher and marked a red X next to my thoughts.

And when you thought you had the right answer didn't you go to the teacher and state your case? I know I did.

That is how discussions work. You state a position. I counter with my thoughts. You come back with yours based on my thoughts. I then come back with my thoughts based on your response and so on. It gets tons of information out there based on how each of us think about a player.

Again, you don't have to continue it if you don't want to. I am just trying to get inside the thought process because maybe I am wrong and missing something on him.

[lollipopcurve]

That is how discussions work. You state a position. I counter with my thoughts. You come back with yours based on my thoughts. I then come back with my thoughts based on your response and so on. It gets tons of information out there based on how each of us think about a player.

Doug, the way you shut down a conversation is by saying "you're wrong." That's what you did. A more skilled conversationalist would have said something like, "interesting... we value different things in a prospect, etc., etc."

I don't like it when someone draws me out and then takes the first opportunity to say, more or less, "I'm right and you're wrong."

[dougdirt]

The only time I used the word wrong in this thread was when I said "nothing wrong with that".

[lollipopcurve]

The only time I used the word wrong in this thread was when I said "nothing wrong with that".

This is tiresome.

Examine the sentence below.

But that isn't worthy of being a Top 15 guy.

In the context of our conversation at the time, this is equivalent to saying, "you're wrong."

Let it go, Doug. My advice to you is to stop acting like an authority in favor of being one of many voices/opinions.

[mace]

He was a 4th round pick just last season. He OPS'd under .800 in the California League as a 23 year old, so numbers aren't really good and he wasn't young for the level, actually old for the level.

The average age for hitters in the California League was 22.7; for pitchers 23.2. That makes the overall average age about 22.95. I don't really think that classifies Greene, at 23, as "actually old for the level."

[Edd Roush]

Glad to see some love for Garrett here. He is dripping with upside. Power left-handed arm with developing secondary pitches.

[dougdirt]

The average age for hitters in the California League was 22.7; for pitchers 23.2. That makes the overall average age about 22.95. I don't really think that classifies Greene, at 23, as "actually old for the level."

Actual Major League prospects shouldn't be "league average age" though. For a guy considered to be an actual Major League prospect, Greene at 23 in High A is old.

Go down the Reds roster. How many of those guys, especially non relief pitchers, were 23 for an entire season in High A? How about even half of a season?

Stubbs spent half a season at 23 in High A and he finished out in AAA. Paul Janish spent half/a little more than half a season at High A at 23. Chris Heisey spent nearly a full season there. Ryan Hanigan spent a full season at High A at 23. Fred Lewis did.

That is it. You know what those guys have in common aside from Hanigan? They aren't good hitters. While every player is different, generally the younger you are at a level while holding your own, the better you are going to be in the future. The older you are, the more you should be hitting.

The ideal prospect age for each level is:

Rookie Ball: 18-19
Low A: 19-21
High A: 20-22
Double A: 21-23
Triple A: 22-24

The younger the better.

[jmt5887]

I voted for Brodie Green. I love his versitility and I think he's probably one of the closer prospects to making an impact on the reds in the next couple years then others in the system.

[mace]

Actual Major League prospects shouldn't be "league average age" though. For a guy considered to be an actual Major League prospect, Greene at 23 in High A is old.

Go down the Reds roster. How many of those guys, especially non relief pitchers, were 23 for an entire season in High A? How about even half of a season?

Stubbs spent half a season at 23 in High A and he finished out in AAA. Paul Janish spent half/a little more than half a season at High A at 23. Chris Heisey spent nearly a full season there. Ryan Hanigan spent a full season at High A at 23. Fred Lewis did.

That is it. You know what those guys have in common aside from Hanigan? They aren't good hitters. While every player is different, generally the younger you are at a level while holding your own, the better you are going to be in the future. The older you are, the more you should be hitting.

The ideal prospect age for each level is:

Rookie Ball: 18-19
Low A: 19-21
High A: 20-22
Double A: 21-23
Triple A: 22-24

The younger the better.

I agree that the younger the better. We all do, pretty much. But you're slicing this one pretty thin.

Greene didn't start in pro ball until he was 22. After his junior year at A&M, he was drafted by the Phillies in the 37th round but elected to go back for his senior year. It paid off, as the Reds took him in the fourth round last year. Then they sent him straight to High-A Lynchburg--actually jumped him over Ryan LaMarre and Devin Lohman, who were drafted ahead of him. In that respect, he very much meets your criteria of being fast-tracked.

After a partial season at Lynchburg, he returned to that level at Bakersfield--in large part, I suspect, because the Reds had Henry Rodriguez, Cody Puckett and Miguel Rojas already at Carolina. (When Rojas was hurt, they moved up Gregorius, a pure shortstop and higher-ranked prospect.) Even after a second year at High-A (the first year was just a partial, of course), he remains on the same track as LaMarre, who is our #18 prospect.

Yes, he's a year older than LaMarre--a function, obviously, of that extra year in college. But he's still only two years out of college. Stubbs didn't play in High-A until his third year removed from college. The same for Heisey. So Greene is solidly on pace with those guys, maybe even ahead. In retrospect, do you think Stubbs was worthy of being ranked #23 in our poll? Was Heisey?

Your objections to Greene don't really hold up.

I've linked a 2010 article from the Lynchburg paper in which Greene is discussed as a guy who made an unexpectedly rapid rise to High-A:

http://www2.newsadvance.com/sports/2...voi-ar-320695/

[dougdirt]

After a partial season at Lynchburg, he returned to that level at Bakersfield--in large part, I suspect, because the Reds had Henry Rodriguez, Cody Puckett and Miguel Rojas already at Carolina. (When Rojas was hurt, they moved up Gregorius, a pure shortstop and higher-ranked prospect.) Even after a second year at High-A (the first year was just a partial, of course), he remains on the same track as LaMarre, who is our #18 prospect.

I imagine he was sent to Bakersfield because he didn't hit at all last season. Sure, Carolina had guys in place, but Greene didn't hit last year and he certainly didn't light it up despite playing in incredibly friendly environments this season either.

Yes, he's a year older than LaMarre--a function, obviously, of that extra year in college. But he's still only two years out of college. Stubbs didn't play in High-A until his third year removed from college. The same for Heisey. So Greene is solidly on pace with those guys, maybe even ahead. In retrospect, do you think Stubbs was worthy of being ranked #23 in our poll? Was Heisey?

I am not worried about his years out of college. I care about his age. Stubbs upside is incredibly higher than Greene's, so that comparison doesn't work too well. Heisey, probably has a similar upside to that of Greene at the same point in their careers. Of course Chris Heisey hit better at 23 in High A while playing in the Florida State League than Greene did while in the California League, so at least statistically, Heisey was MUCH better. After that season, I ranked Heisey 23rd.

[mace]

I imagine he was sent to Bakersfield because he didn't hit at all last season. Sure, Carolina had guys in place, but Greene didn't hit last year and he certainly didn't light it up despite playing in incredibly friendly environments this season either.


I am not worried about his years out of college. I care about his age. Stubbs upside is incredibly higher than Greene's, so that comparison doesn't work too well. Heisey, probably has a similar upside to that of Greene at the same point in their careers. Of course Chris Heisey hit better at 23 in High A while playing in the Florida State League than Greene did while in the California League, so at least statistically, Heisey was MUCH better. After that season, I ranked Heisey 23rd.

So, I guess you underrated Heisey.

(Technically, by the way, Heisey walked better than Greene in High-A. Their BA and slugging were nearly identical. Greene hit more home runs and stole more bases. And yes, Greene played in a much friendlier place.)

Look, nobody's saying that Greene tore it up last year. If he'd torn it up, while playing the middle infield, stealing a lot of bases and earning perfect tens for makeup, we'd be stumping for him to go a lot higher than #23--which would have been #28 a couple of weeks ago. But he played well and impressed some people in his second year of professional ball. He legitimately acquitted himself as a prospect in the eyes of at least a few of us, and that impression isn't tempered by your questionable arguments about his age. Not for me, anyway.

[dougdirt]

So, I guess you underrated Heisey.

(Technically, by the way, Heisey walked better than Greene in High-A. Their BA and slugging were nearly identical. Greene hit more home runs and stole more bases. And yes, Greene played in a much friendlier place.)

Look, nobody's saying that Greene tore it up last year. If he'd torn it up, while playing the middle infield, stealing a lot of bases and earning perfect tens for makeup, we'd be stumping for him to go a lot higher than #23--which would have been #28 a couple of weeks ago. But he played well and impressed some people in his second year of professional ball. He legitimately acquitted himself as a prospect in the eyes of at least a few of us, and that impression isn't tempered by your questionable arguments about his age. Not for me, anyway.

Well the fact that Heisey played int he FSL and Greene in the CAL, but had similar numbers means that Heisey hit a bunch better. I don't have much of an issue with Greene here. It is within the range of where I have him. I just can't see him being inside the Top 15 with his scouting reports and the numbers he has put up so far in his career.

[camisadelgolf]

Brodie Greene is my #2 prospect behind Kevin Coddington.