Baseball America's take on the Jocketty hiring

[Falls City Beer]

and I disagree with yours. Bad pitching still? Sure? But monstrous? Nada. Be very very wary of the early season. It lies. Alot. Sorta like spring training.

The Reds have a prime Harang, blooming Volquez and another big rightie developing down in the minors. That core alone speaks to good things going foward. The bullpen has some talent finally(along with some holes yet assured) and I will say it has probably overachieved abit. But as the weather warms up some of those struggling bullpen arms in AAA/AA will get hot and bloom. It is simple math. Jocketty simply needs to take the pieces that will work and move the talent he can for filling the remaining holes. It isn't that difficult. You try to make it sound horrible. It isn't.

The Reds have two MLB starters. Huzzah.

[Aronchis]

The Reds have two MLB starters. Huzzah.

or maybe more. You don't know that. That is the point.

[Falls City Beer]

You don't know that.

Agnosticism. I like Baconian certainty.

[Ltlabner]

...but it seems some here now are changing their view that the whole franchise was a mess when Wayne arrived. That's not really true.

Repeat this sentence, out loud, five thousand times.

It will still never be true.

And using fan optimisim as a vaild measuring stick is a fools errand. Hell, I'm optimisitic that the Reds will be in the hunt every spring. But my enternal optimisim has no bearing on the objective facts on the playing field, no matter how many times I forget the lesson. So to say the orginization was in good shape just because some fans were buzzed about Ryan Wagner is massive leap in pseudo-logic.

[Aronchis]

But let's look back at the 2005 club in hindsight, going under the optimistic assumptions many had:

Pitching:

Clausen, coming off 166 IP, and a 4.21 ERA seemed to be a workable rotation guy. The "ace" predictions had soured, but he seemed useful.

Belisle: Many people high on this guy as well. Seemed like another promising young guy

Harang: this guy was actually underrated at the time by most. Hadn't broken through yet.

Weathers: old but solid, much like some of our current bullpen guys.

Other guys generally viewed favorably: Coffey, Wanger, Lizard, Valentine, Shackleford.

On the farm: Homer, Ceuto (although he was under the radar and shouldn't count in the optimism score),

So, one would say that there's some holes in that staff obviously, but not
that bad of a base to start with.

Lineup:
I don't know how many people were predicting LaRue's self destruction in the 2006 season.I can't recall any. Prior to Ross being picked up, most people were generally optimistic about LaRue for the short term at least.

Casey was falling out of favor, but Votto was already on the farm, and causing excitement.

People were high on EdE, Freel, Lopez,

In the OF: this was considered a strength, with Dunn, Jr, Kearns, and Pena.
Folks were really high on Deno as well. There was a lot of hope some of the excessive OF help could be moved for pitching..

So, as far as lineup goes, it was generally viewed that we were pretty solid everywhere except 1b, but Votto was coming.. Just as people are excited this year about Bruce coming.

So, my point in listing all this is that there was a pretty high level of optimism when Wayne arrived, as far as most of the pieces being in place, and a good base to work from.

Not directed at you M2, but it seems some here now are changing their view that the whole franchise was a mess when Wayne arrived. That's not really true. I'd say people were just as optimistic now as they were back then.

I'm not going to go back and see what prospects were really hot back then. But I remember people having hope for guys like Olmedo, Bergolllia, etc.

So I guess the point is that in 2005 (when Wayne arrived), the Reds were generally viewed as being in pretty good shape too, and that the right GM could find another pitcher or two and get this team back to contending.
Optimism certainly went through the roof in the early part of the 2006 season, when the roster was largely DanO's guys plus Hat, Arroyo + Phillips.

In 2005:
1.Claussens shoulder was shot. That is why his velocity fell(not elbow). I saw him pitch Augest 03 and he looked great(90-93mph fastball, about a tick below his pre-TJ level) with nasty slider. That following spring, his stuff looked like it fell apart. I commented the Reds should be looking into trading Claussen for this very reason and got bashed. The guy had issues.
2.Harang broke out legitly
3.Belisle. Nobody was that high on Matt. He was in the BP at that time. Basically we hoped he could become somebody some day(maybe he still will)
4.Weathers. Please, he was old. His 2006-7 was a mirage. Not the kind of stuff teams build on
5.Bailey,Cueto. Again, please. Both of those guys were years away in 2005 and even in 2006 from becoming a BIG force.
6.The other guys? What guys? Outside of Coffey, none were overly highly respected. Wagner fell apart in 05 and most suspected a injury. We were right. By the end of 05, he was already a afterthought for many(at least in my mind he was).

So we didn't have near as much as you hoped after 05. Harang and um, um, um maybe Coffey ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!! Not much.

As for the lineup, please. Votto was coming off a sad 2005 season and Griffey hit his last big year. Dunn was topping out and Kearns was flopping. EE was to young and was years away from making a big impact. No doubt the Reds had some talent there, but not as much as you hope.

I would say the big loss was the dream of turning Kearns into a stud pitcher. Well, no wonder we didn't. The truth hurts there.

I would take the Reds now. If this current May 1st edition was what we had at the end of 2005, I bet many GM's would have taken up Cast's offer for the job. Young exciting infield, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey,Johnny Cueto, Ed Volquez. Alot to play with. After 2005? Nothing.

[nate]

but it seems some here now are changing their view that the whole franchise was a mess when Wayne arrived. That's not really true. I'd say people were just as optimistic now as they were back then.

I thought the offense was good, defense was poor and would need to give FCB a thesaurus and about 5 minutes to adequately describe the pitching.

So I guess the point is that in 2005 (when Wayne arrived)...

Wayne arrived in 2006, broham.

...the Reds were generally viewed as being in pretty good shape too,

No, sir. Not by me!

Optimism certainly went through the roof in the early part of the 2006 season, when the roster was largely DanO's guys plus Hat, Arroyo + Phillips.

That was excitement relative to having Jacob Cruz, Milton/Wilson and D'Angelo Jimenez inked in to the lineup.

[M2]

I guess the point is that in 2005 (when Wayne arrived), the Reds were generally viewed as being in pretty good shape too, and that the right GM could find another pitcher or two and get this team back to contending.

Sure, if you had your head in the sand in 2005 you very well might have thought that. I didn't. You didn't. Both of us knew better.

And it's got nothing to do with the current situation where the Reds have Phillips in his prime, Encarnacion on the improve, Votto breaking in, Bruce pounding at the door, more attractive starting pitching options than at any point in recent memory and a quality closer.

The point I was making is that the Reds are somewhere in between dire and winning, which I vastly prefer to dire.

[M2]

Agnosticism. I like Baconian certainty.

You mean, like the 13th century sucks and we need a Renaissance?

I'm down with that and I'd suggest Bacon wouldn't have throw rocks at Galileo the first time the Italian didn't produce a working telescope.

[Caveat Emperor]

Not directed at you M2, but it seems some here now are changing their view that the whole franchise was a mess when Wayne arrived. That's not really true. I'd say people were just as optimistic now as they were back then.

Are you kidding?

Pre-Wayne, the Reds were going into the season penciling in the likes of Dave Williams, Brandon Claussen and Eric Milton into the rotation. The bullpen included Chris Hammond, Mike Burns and Rick White.

That 2006 team was destined to lose, and lose hard -- and I think most people were fairly certain of that. If Dan'O hadn't been fired, they'd have been a real threat to lose an even 100.

[fearofpopvol1]

"We're just not going to lose anymore." -Bob Castellini, 4/23/08

[top6]

"We're just not going to lose anymore." -Bob Castellini, 4/23/08

HA HA HA. So great.

He really is the worst professional sports owner in Cincinnati. Has this team EVER committed to contending or rebuilding? No is the answer, in my opinion.

Mike Brown is awful, but consistent. Castellini is just strange. Spends millions on Dusty Baker when someone just as good could be had for probably $300,000 a year or less. Changes GMs three times in a few years.

I'll take Mike Brown's quixotic quest to win HIS way, no matter what, over the meaningless bluster and constant search for quick fixes that we've seen at Great American Ballpark lately.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

HA HA HA. So great.

He really is the worst professional sports owner in Cincinnati. Has this team EVER committed to contending or rebuilding? No is the answer, in my opinion.

Mike Brown is awful, but consistent. Castellini is just strange. Spends millions on Dusty Baker when someone just as good could be had for probably $300,000 a year or less. Changes GMs three times in a few years.

I'll take Mike Brown's quixotic quest to win HIS way, no matter what, over the meaningless bluster and constant search for quick fixes that we've seen at Great American Ballpark lately.

What he said.

[TheNext44]

HA HA HA. So great.

He really is the worst professional sports owner in Cincinnati. Has this team EVER committed to contending or rebuilding? No is the answer, in my opinion.

Mike Brown is awful, but consistent. Castellini is just strange. Spends millions on Dusty Baker when someone just as good could be had for probably $300,000 a year or less. Changes GMs three times in a few years.

I'll take Mike Brown's quixotic quest to win HIS way, no matter what, over the meaningless bluster and constant search for quick fixes that we've seen at Great American Ballpark lately.

Never let facts get in the way of a good rant.

1) He has changed GM's twice since he has owned the team. And both times, it was an improvement.

2) I think even Narron and Miley got close to $500K a year, and I know that even A.J. Hinch is around that. But you are right a cheaper manager could had, just not for anywhere near $300K.

3) The Reds are contending now, thanks to Cast commiting too much money to Harang, Arroyo, Phillips, Taveras, Lincoln, Hairston and Cordero. Commitment to winning is not his problem.

4) Mike Brown has no quest to win, his way or any other. He has a quest to make money. If he wins while doing that... gravy.

Cast wants to win. However, he is just starting to figure out how, with Jocketty's guidance. The health of the Reds organization is miles better than the health of the Bengals. Not even close.

[OnBaseMachine]

1) He has changed GM's twice since he has owned the team. And both times, it was an improvement.

That's your opinion. Me? I would take Wayne Krivsky over Jocketty any day of the week.

[Homer Bailey]

That's your opinion. Me? I would take Wayne Krivsky over Jocketty any day of the week.

2nd that opinion. Krivsky actually brought real talent into this organization.