Hoping to change my username to 75769024
RadfordVA (03-22-2013),Scrap Irony (03-22-2013)
Parra was a surprise signing. I know he is a lefty but "does" he make the bullpen better?
If Leake had made his debut in 2001, he would've been worshiped as a future Maddux/potential ace. I agree, we've gotten a bit spoiled the last few years.
Leake is a great 5th starter, and that should factor into the decision making with Chapman.
Honestly, I'm not convinced Chapman starting would outperform Leake this year. IMO, Chapman starting is a long term project.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Liked and quoted for truth. Never cared for Leake, and i really think when talking mental makeup about Chapman, keep in mind this is the guy that was/is a soon to be millionaire that shoplifted t-shirts. He isn't the poster boy for mental makeup.
So beyond tired of the mental makeup theory. Try this. Have Mat Latos (who has been known to be a bit of a flake/immature) be uprooted to say, South Korea. Have him leave his wife behind, and make it so he cannot contact anyone he knows from the U.S. Let him get comfortable with a new culture, oh and throw in a ton of money, so, beforehand he'd have to have been making almost nothing. Make him a superstar in Korea too, where he's interviewed constantly through interpreters.
Anyone have any thoughts on if he might have a few flaky moments?
Chapman as a starter for April and May, limit is IP as much as possible. If it lookslike his secondary pitches aren't strong enough to keep him in the rotation, then ease him back into the backend, no harm. Because, IMO, he is a better pitcher in EVERY ASPECT than Mike Leake, I think he can succeed. At worst he's a wash to the best Leake can deliver.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
dougdirt (03-22-2013)
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Leake is a good #5 and probably an average to slightly below average #4. We have gotten spoiled enough not to want to accept that, which is not a bad thing.
The problem with Leake is that I don't think he has enough upside to ever be more than that. Certainly he has some value, but I like my back-of-the-rotation guys to be up-and-comers with the eventual upside to become a front or at least middle of the rotation guy (kind of like what Homer Bailey has been the past couple years). That is why I would prefer an Aroldis Chapman or a Rick Porcello as our #5 starter to a Mike Leake.
I think Leake could be very attractive to San Diego, where he actually could look more like a #3 starter (and play in front of his hometown crowd).
Go BLUE!!!
Peripherals are by definition not discussing who someone was, or else they wouldn't be called peripherals.
All I care about in discussing who someone was is their actual production that lead to actual runs and actual wins and loses. Anything else is peripheral to the discussion and doesn't tell me who he was in terms of actually helping his team win games.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Mike Leake could be a very reliable, steady pitcher. He has good control, throws hard enough, mixes his pitches, gets grounders.
But he cannot continue to give up 26 homers per season. Period.
He gives up a lot of contact. Men are on base. He must refrain from allowing the long ball.
It's really that simple. If he can't cope with GABP then I agree, he'd be better off elsewhere. If he can learn to cut out the long balls, he'd be fine.
Last edited by Kc61; 03-22-2013 at 12:03 PM.
Peripherals are by sabermetric definition the actual things a player could control-i.e. who the player actual was.
You're actually arguing that youre more interested in what the team was when player X was part of the mix. Viewing things through that filter actually clouds estimates of the player's contribution to team wins.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
thatcoolguy_22 (03-22-2013)
The challenge with the FIP peripherals is that they do ignore the reality that pitchers have some control over BABIP and that some have demonstrated a skill at limiting damage (e.g. Tom Glavine walking more guys but giving up fewer hits and homers with men on base).
I'm with you in that the peripherals give you a more accurate picture than the blunt team results captured by ERA and WHIP. But anybody looking at peripherals to see who a guy was should at least consider the peripherals beyond Ks, BBs and HRs.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
I have often argued for looking at ALL pitcher peripherals including things like BABIP, LOB%, batted ball tendencies etc when evaluating who a pitcher actually was....
That said, someone arguing FIP is painting a skewed picture of an individual pitcher because of that pitcher's BABIP needs to show their work. I know you haven't argued such is the case for Leake but i'll state it for the record, such is not the case for Leake.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
If Chapman is moved to Closer then the Reds should really think about Kyle Lohse. Running Mike Leake out there ever 5 days is a very bad idea. I kept hearing how Chapman and Leake were neck and neck for the 5th starter job this spring then I looked at the stats.
Leake has a .421 BBA with a 1.92 WHIP, and yes you will here the chorus of people that claim spring training numbers mean nothing, but if that is true how can you ever have 2 players fight a for a single job during ST. Plus Leake's numbers have been never been good and are declining.
BTW Chapman's ST numbers .185 BBA with a 1.13 WHIP
back to Leake
2010 .666 Wpct
2011 .571 Wpct
2012 .471 Wpct
In 2012 he had a .287 BBA with a .805 OPS against
that .287 was the absolute worse in the NL for qualified pitchers last season (46th out of 46th)
his OPS against was ranked 45th out of 46th last season.
his WHIP was ranked 37th
I would rather see Sam LeCure every 5 days than Mike Leake, at least he can keep the ball in the park
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