Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

[RedEye]

When a second baseman on pace for 25 HR, 130 RBI and a GG, isn't an MVP candidate, something is wrong. When the best defensive RF in the NL is on pace for 40 HR, 50 doubles and 115 RBI, but isn't an MVP candidate, something is wrong. If these same two players were putting up the same stats in a Yankees uniform, ESPN would be having a lovefest over them every day.

I dunno. I suppose it depends on how much voters are into counting stats and how much their interest has shifted to OPS and the like. If it is the latter, neither Bruce nor Phillips has much of a shot barring a huge improvement. That's not taking anything away from either -- they are both having really good seasons, just not MVP caliber probably.

(FWIW, I did post both of their names in my other thread since I do think they at least merit being "in the conversation" at this point).

[New York Red]

I dunno. I suppose it depends on how much voters are into counting stats and how much their interest has shifted to OPS and the like. If it is the latter, neither Bruce nor Phillips has much of a shot barring a huge improvement. That's not taking anything away from either -- they are both having really good seasons, just not MVP caliber probably.

(FWIW, I did post both of their names in my other thread since I do think they at least merit being "in the conversation" at this point).

It shouldn't be, but media coverage is a factor in MVP voting. If Phillips and Bruce were playing for the Yankees and putting up the same numbers, they'd get way more love than they get playing in small market Cincy.

[RedEye]

It shouldn't be, but media coverage is a factor in MVP voting. If Phillips and Bruce were playing for the Yankees and putting up the same numbers, they'd get way more love than they get playing in small market Cincy.

Agreed. But has there been a NY or Boston-based player who has actually won the thing with stats like these two are putting up? I suppose there's Pedroia, but he put up an .869 OPS as a 2B on a top team. Coverage only gets you so far when the vote actually comes down.

[Ironman92]

It shouldn't be, but media coverage is a factor in MVP voting. If Phillips and Bruce were playing for the Yankees and putting up the same numbers, they'd get way more love than they get playing in small market Cincy.

Posey, Braun and Votto aren't huge markets and they won the last 3.

[Brutus]

Posey, Braun and Votto aren't huge markets and they won the last 3.

I agree with what you're saying, but point of order: the Bay Area is absolutely a big market. It's the fourth-biggest market in the country, in fact.

[New York Red]

I'm not talking about winning the award. I'm referring to the media attention/hype players get in certain markets. Unless you're a clear cut favorite, media is definitely a factor.

[Jamz]

I think that we're overrating our players' accomplishments a little bit -- or ignoring what is going on with other teams.

Looking at the Phillips mention...he's only putting up a wRC+ of 100 and WAR of 1.7 right now. Put someone like Carpenter, Scutaro or Gyorko in his position right now and they'd have just as good if not better counting stats. Everyone knows that BP is one of the best, if not the best, 2B defenders in the league and for that he'll always be very valuable, but his offence doesn't measure up to some of the best hitters at the position just in the NL let alone the whole league (Pedroia, Kinsler, Cano, etc.). He's a great player, and pretty much irreplaceable for us...not close to an MVP candidate though.

Jay Bruce has really started opening eyes this season. I remember early in the season people were upset that he didn't seem to be hitting for power. It was easy to defend him because anyone watching him could tell that he was maturing at the plate and that the power would always be forthcoming. With that said, aside from one season he's never been much more than average defensively in RF. When comparing Bruce to the whole league his offensive contributions aren't quite up to the elite standards that an MVP has. The MVP usually is at the top, or near the top, in WAR in the league that they play in. The top 3 in WAR in the NL right now are Carlos Gomez (4.2), Troy Tulowitzki (3.9) and Carlos Gonzalez (3.8)...Jay Bruce has a WAR of 1.9. He's not really close.

There's no reason we can't appreciate what BP and Bruce are doing right now. The league doesn't have to recognize these players for us to know they're tearing it up and are a big part of why the Reds are one of the best teams in baseball. I know I'm going to be extremely happy at the end of the season if Bruce continues to hit the way he has and puts up 40+ HRs whether he gets an MVP nod or not.

With that said...if we take out the 28 games of March/April and look at his May/June performance of 48 games things change a bit. Bruce overall has a wRC+ of 133, but that is being dragged down by a wRC+ of 76 from March/April. Take that out and his overall wRC+ over the last 48 games is roughly 168...which would be good for 4th in all of baseball, and 5 points behind Tulo for the NL. Bruce has accumulated almost all of his WAR starting in May, and if he can continue to play the way he has over that spread he could definitely put his name into MVP contention.

[Vottomatic]

I think that we're overrating our players' accomplishments a little bit -- or ignoring what is going on with other teams.

Looking at the Phillips mention...he's only putting up a wRC+ of 100 and WAR of 1.7 right now. Put someone like Carpenter, Scutaro or Gyorko in his position right now and they'd have just as good if not better counting stats. Everyone knows that BP is one of the best, if not the best, 2B defenders in the league and for that he'll always be very valuable, but his offence doesn't measure up to some of the best hitters at the position just in the NL let alone the whole league (Pedroia, Kinsler, Cano, etc.). He's a great player, and pretty much irreplaceable for us...not close to an MVP candidate though.

Jay Bruce has really started opening eyes this season. I remember early in the season people were upset that he didn't seem to be hitting for power. It was easy to defend him because anyone watching him could tell that he was maturing at the plate and that the power would always be forthcoming. With that said, aside from one season he's never been much more than average defensively in RF. When comparing Bruce to the whole league his offensive contributions aren't quite up to the elite standards that an MVP has. The MVP usually is at the top, or near the top, in WAR in the league that they play in. The top 3 in WAR in the NL right now are Carlos Gomez (4.2), Troy Tulowitzki (3.9) and Carlos Gonzalez (3.8)...Jay Bruce has a WAR of 1.9. He's not really close.

There's no reason we can't appreciate what BP and Bruce are doing right now. The league doesn't have to recognize these players for us to know they're tearing it up and are a big part of why the Reds are one of the best teams in baseball. I know I'm going to be extremely happy at the end of the season if Bruce continues to hit the way he has and puts up 40+ HRs whether he gets an MVP nod or not.

With that said...if we take out the 28 games of March/April and look at his May/June performance of 48 games things change a bit. Bruce overall has a wRC+ of 133, but that is being dragged down by a wRC+ of 76 from March/April. Take that out and his overall wRC+ over the last 48 games is roughly 168...which would be good for 4th in all of baseball, and 5 points behind Tulo for the NL. Bruce has accumulated almost all of his WAR starting in May, and if he can continue to play the way he has over that spread he could definitely put his name into MVP contention.

I used to be in favor of WAR, but I'm moving over to the camp that says it's overrated.

I've been down on Bruce in the past, probably from all the hype and his continual streakiness. But I see a different Jay Bruce this season.........mostly mental. He doesn't get down on himself like in the past. He's definitely maturing. He's only 26 and has improved his numbers each year. I was the same on Bailey, but changed my mind as he seemed to turn the corner last July/August. It's a good lesson in patience and allowing these guys to come into their own. But you also need to look for little signs of improvement and mental maturity, along with putting in the extra work to be good/great. Some guys simply don't have that ability.........for example Drew Stubbs.

I disagree about BP. I think he is one of the best 2B in MLB. And he has matured as a hitter this season tremendously.

[Ironman92]

I agree with what you're saying, but point of order: the Bay Area is absolutely a big market. It's the fourth-biggest market in the country, in fact.

Yes.....and across the country from the East coast bias. I've not seen much of Buster Posey outside of the playoffs or playing against the Reds

[Jamz]

I used to be in favor of WAR, but I'm moving over to the camp that says it's overrated.

I've been down on Bruce in the past, probably from all the hype and his continual streakiness. But I see a different Jay Bruce this season.........mostly mental. He doesn't get down on himself like in the past. He's definitely maturing. He's only 26 and has improved his numbers each year. I was the same on Bailey, but changed my mind as he seemed to turn the corner last July/August. It's a good lesson in patience and allowing these guys to come into their own. But you also need to look for little signs of improvement and mental maturity, along with putting in the extra work to be good/great. Some guys simply don't have that ability.........for example Drew Stubbs.

I don't disagree. I really like Bruce and have always been a big fan and I also have always thought he would have the ability to reach his potential at some point.

I disagree about BP. I think he is one of the best 2B in MLB. And he has matured as a hitter this season tremendously.

He is one of the best 2B in the league, that said he's not near an MVP candidate, and he's not really close to the 'big 3' (Cano, Kinsler, Pedroia) and now guys like Carpenter and Kipnis are stepping up too. How has his hitting matured this season tremendously? He's walking at his average rate, his strikeout rate has actually gone to its highest since 2008, and his lowest slugging since 2005.

[RedEye]

I'm not talking about winning the award. I'm referring to the media attention/hype players get in certain markets. Unless you're a clear cut favorite, media is definitely a factor.

I thought the reason you were bringing up the markets was because of how they affect the awards... If not, what's the point you were making?

[reds44]

Elephant in the room:
91 Ks/22 BBs.

That is awful.

His SO/BB is 4.14, and it had never been above 2.5 since his rookie year. His BB% is at a career low and his K% is at a career high (including his rookie year).

His BABIP is .341 (career is .296).

I have always defended Bruce, so don't take that the wrong way, but that cannot continue.

I think what we (at least I have learned) is Bruce is still a developing player, particularly with the bat. I think he is trying to do something different with his approach, and thus you've seen some different numbers. Higher BA, less walks (although because the BA is higher his OBP is the same), more strikeouts.

People always look at him being as lack of a finished product as a negative. However, he's been a pretty good player despite the fact he's not finished. Imagine if puts together a .285+ BA with his normal career 70 point BA/OB split? Then you're looking at a .290/.360/.520 (or even higher SLG) player which I think would match even the highest expectations for Bruce.

At the end of the day, he's getting better, and I think he has been his entire career.

[Jamz]

His BABIP is .341 (career is .296).

For what it's worth this has a lot to do with his changed approach at the plate and his willingness to go opposite field more.

[reds44]

For what it's worth this has a lot to do with his changed approach at the plate and his willingness to go opposite field more.

Maybe it should be a little higher because of that, but it shouldn't be .341 high unless he's turned into Miguel Cabrera (he hasn't).

[UC_Ken]

Maybe it should be a little higher because of that, but it shouldn't be .341 high unless he's turned into Miguel Cabrera (he hasn't).

I agree that it's probably unsustainable at .341 but he is definitely hitting the ball farther which is evident by his increased rate of HR and to a lesser extent 2B. Hitting it harder definitely will increase BABIP.