AAA Rotation

[mth123]

I think this trade solidifies, somewhat, the AAA rotation barring another acquisition at the major league level (Bedard, Colon, Leiber)


First the Reds rotation as I see it:

Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Volquez, Bailey.

Louisville:

Cueto, Maloney, LeCure, Gardner & Shearn

That's a nice top 3 with Gardner being my sleeper pick. The rule 5 pickup could be retained and start at AAA if a trade for his rights can be worked out.

There is some depth to the Reds rotation. The thought boggles my mind.

Actually, I'm still hoping for a number 3 to be acquired. I have some downtime over the holidays so I hope to get the organizational pitching depth chart for 2008 ready for the first pass. But right now, I'd like to see:

Majors:

Harang, Arroyo, Acquisition, Volquez, Belisle

AAA

Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, Shearn, Gardner

AA

Thompson, Fisher, Lecure, and a number of guys to choose from (Jukich, Ondrusek, Avery, Vasquez, maybe Pauley or Wood but I'd start them lower).

I think Bailey needs a year in AAA to rebuild his innings, work on his command and recapture his luster. Fisher and Lecure need to master AA before moving up. I'd say the Reds should have a crowd ready for the majors and working in AAA by mid-season and with the Volquez/Bailey/Cueto upside leading the way, I'm hoping the organization becomes known for its "young guns" and the others have their value enhanced from the rep. I think its a realistic possibility.

[Aronchis]

Actually, I'm still hoping for a number 3 to be acquired. I have some downtime over the holidays so I hope to get the organizational pitching depth chart for 2008 ready for the first pass. But right now, I'd like to see:

Majors:

Harang, Arroyo, Acquisition, Volquez, Belisle

AAA

Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, Shearn, Gardner

AA

Thompson, Fisher, Lecure, and a number of guys to choose from (Jukich, Ondrusek, Avery, Vasquez, maybe Pauley or Wood but I'd start them lower).

I think Bailey needs a year in AAA to rebuild his innings, work on his command and recapture his luster. Fisher and Lecure need to master AA before moving up. I'd say the Reds should have a crowd ready for the majors and working in AAA by mid-season and with the Volquez/Bailey/Cueto upside leading the way, I'm hoping the organization becomes known for its "young guns" and the others have their value enhanced from the rep. I think its a realistic possibility.

The Reds already aquired him, his name is Volquez. Bailey goes where he can succeed. If he can help the big league team, he goes on the big league team. "rebuilding" innings? Good grief.

[mth123]

The Reds already aquired him, his name is Volquez. Bailey goes where he can succeed. If he can help the big league team, he goes on the big league team. "rebuilding" innings? Good grief.

He pitched only 120+ last year, 138+ in 2006 and 103+ in 2005. Putting him into a major league rotation at age 22 with that background is a prescription for a torn labrum. Good grief.

[Aronchis]

He pitched only 120+ last year, 138+ in 2006 and 103+ in 2005. Putting him into a major league rotation at age 22 with that background is a prescription for a torn labrum. Good grief.

Not really. Bad mechanics cause torn labrums. To much to soon usually just wears down the arm quicker.

[mth123]

Not really. Bad mechanics cause torn labrums. To much to soon usually just wears down the arm quicker.

Agree that mechanics are the triggering event. Wearing down or working more than a pitcher is ready for is many times the root cause of bad mechanics. I am among the dwindling ranks on this board who still thinks that Bailey can be a long term number 1 starter. If its my team, I don't risk it.

[Highlifeman21]

Actually, I'm still hoping for a number 3 to be acquired. I have some downtime over the holidays so I hope to get the organizational pitching depth chart for 2008 ready for the first pass. But right now, I'd like to see:

Majors:

Harang, Arroyo, Acquisition, Volquez, Belisle

AAA

Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, Shearn, Gardner

AA

Thompson, Fisher, Lecure, and a number of guys to choose from (Jukich, Ondrusek, Avery, Vasquez, maybe Pauley or Wood but I'd start them lower).

I think Bailey needs a year in AAA to rebuild his innings, work on his command and recapture his luster. Fisher and Lecure need to master AA before moving up. I'd say the Reds should have a crowd ready for the majors and working in AAA by mid-season and with the Volquez/Bailey/Cueto upside leading the way, I'm hoping the organization becomes known for its "young guns" and the others have their value enhanced from the rep. I think its a realistic possibility.

I share the same hope. While adding Volquez helps the BOR for 2008, it doesn't fully take the pressure off Bailey. I'm hoping we can pick up one more SP that is somewhere talent wise either better than Belisle, or as good as Volquez, which would then push Bailey to AAA, where he belongs for the time being. I think Bailey as the #5 take some pressure off the young Texan, but for my money not enough. Let Cueto, Bailey and Maloney all have the opportunity to earn their way to the pick club, b/c at this point in time none of them have earned the right to be a MLB pitcher. Just b/c our MLB rotation isn't exactly deep with quality and or serviceable arms does that mean that the kids should pitch at the MLB level by default.

I still wonder about Bailey's value as deemed by other MLB teams, and what kind of MLB arm we could get for him right now, and I'm also wondering what other B prospects we could pair with him to get an arm to compliment Harang. A move like that helps us win now, and win in the future, which is something I would think all Reds fans would want. It'll be 8 seasons at the beginning of 2008. We're overdo.

[TRF]

The most successful pitcher the Reds had at AAA, albeit in limited action was Matt Maloney. He's the darkhorse. Gardner won't get a look this spring, but if he's back to full strength, his ceiling is pretty damn high. He was dominant in '07 at AA. He scuffled at AAA, but that could be partially due to endurance coupled with a jump in level. He could see time in the Reds bullpen by mid June if things go bad.

One guy I want to see pressure added to is Belisle. He is at a point where he HAS to step it up. He needs his K/9 over 7. If he does that he's on his way to being a really successful SP.

[redsmetz]

Well this morning I realized that Sam LeCure is from my wife's hometown and graduated from the same high school. We're heading out to Missouri tomorrow, so I'll see what I can dig up about him. My brother-in-law is an athletic trainer there and he might have some info (he worked with Justin Smith when he was in high school too, and Joe Crede).

[flash]

Also left out Alexander Smit. It will be interesting to see where he ends up. It would be hard to believe the Reds will continue to keep a AA pitcher anywhere less than AA if that far down on the 40 man roster.

[mth123]

Also left out Alexander Smit. It will be interesting to see where he ends up. It would be hard to believe the Reds will continue to keep a AA pitcher anywhere less than AA if that far down on the 40 man roster.

I see your point, but Smit only threw 17 innings at Sarasota. I can't believe they would jump him ahead of so many other guys.

[VI_RedsFan]

I still see the Reds signing a veteran like Lieber or Livan to put in the rotation. This means that it is likely that Bailey will start in AAA. Let's say the Reds sign Jon Lieber. The Rotation in the bigs now looks like this:

Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Lieber, Volquez

And our AAA rotation will then look damn good:

Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, Shearn, Gardner

[bucksfan2]

Bailey wouldn't have been brought back up to the bigs at the end of last season if the reds didn't want him in the starting rotation at the beginning of this season. I think he is penciled in as a starter in spring and will begin with the big club unless he really struggles. I think the rotation looks like this
Majors
Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Bailey, Cueto/Belisle/Maloney/Colon?/Leiber? etc.


IMO Belisle must prove something this spring. He could be an average #4-5 starter but I don't see much more than that. I think he can succeed in the pen. I would much rather see Bailey in the rotaion, Belisle in the pen, and Coffey elsewhere over Bailey in AAA, Belisle in the rotaion and Coffey in the pen.

[mth123]

Bailey wouldn't have been brought back up to the bigs at the end of last season if the reds didn't want him in the starting rotation at the beginning of this season.

I'm not sure I agree with this. Some other possible reasons for bringing him up:

1. He needed innings and the Major League team was the only place left playing.

2. They wanted him back to end the season on a high note. They didn't want him thinking all winter about his demotion, injury and poor rehab outings.

3. They were working with him in Florida and wated to see if the work paid off in game situations.

None of those reasons are guarantees for 2008 IMO.

[dougdirt]

Bailey wouldn't have been brought back up to the bigs at the end of last season if the reds didn't want him in the starting rotation at the beginning of this season. I think he is penciled in as a starter in spring and will begin with the big club unless he really struggles. I think the rotation looks like this
Majors
Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Bailey, Cueto/Belisle/Maloney/Colon?/Leiber? etc.


IMO Belisle must prove something this spring. He could be an average #4-5 starter but I don't see much more than that. I think he can succeed in the pen. I would much rather see Bailey in the rotaion, Belisle in the pen, and Coffey elsewhere over Bailey in AAA, Belisle in the rotaion and Coffey in the pen.

Belisle will be in the rotation. Belisle also showed that he was a #3 pitcher LAST year. His ERA looked very bad, but all of his peripherals suggests that he was actually right in line with a #3 starting pitcher in the NL last season.

[Mario-Rijo]

I see your point, but Smit only threw 17 innings at Sarasota. I can't believe they would jump him ahead of so many other guys.

He also pitched in A+ in '06 although he didn't look very good. However I have to think the kid was injured if you read some of what I have. He pitched very well both before and after High A, Ft Myers is the Twins High A club.

Smit, 21, went 1-4 with 1 save and a 5.86 ERA in 18 appearances (8 starts) this season with Class A Fort Myers, including a 3.86 ERA in 10 games as a reliever (8er, 18.2ip). Last season with Class A Beloit, Smit went 7-2 with a 2.99 ERA in 34 appearances (13 starts). He was named Midwest League Pitcher of the Week for August 7-13.

A bit scouting report from BP:

8/11/06 - Kevin Goldstein


Also getting some late-season attention in the Midwest League is Twins lefthander Alexander Smit, who may be in his fourth pro season at only in Low A, but is still just 20 years old and has blossomed in a late-season move to the rotation, going 4-0 with a 2.52 ERA in nine starts while allowing just 30 hits in 50 innings and striking out 66. "He's completely changed my mind about him," said an American League scout, who saw Smit last year as well, when he had a 5.84 ERA. "Last year he was like 83-85 mph and now he's suddenly 89-92 and pitching very well." While Smit fired seven one-hit innings last night with 11 strikeouts, the scout still thinks he'll need to make some adjustments as he moves up. "He really pitches off that fastball and has plenty of deception, but as he advances, he's going to have to tighten up his secondary stuff."