Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

[redsmetz]

That is what he was going for. The alternative is to walk Votto, bring in a righty to face Phillips and then another lefty to face Bruce. Pitching to Votto was a risk, but perhaps a risk worth taking to save his bullpen.

According to this morning's LA Times story, the plan was to stick with Downs thru Bruce. The Angels had no one warming up, according to story - perhaps someone was ready, but I don't know - the story seemed to indicate no one was ready.

In this case, everything went perfectly for us. I mentioned to my wife, had Votto just singled thru the hold (a small one, for sure), Choo has to hold at third. If he grounds out, same thing, Choo advances to third. But Joey went down to get the pitch Downs wanted to throw (and to the place he wanted it) and hit it sharply enough to glance off of Pujols' glove. Probably 95% of the time, that ball gets fielded well enough to record the out. Last night, it didn't, and it squibbled out into right field - game won. Frankly, I think this is what makes baseball so fun. Wheels churned and we got the better of it.

[puca]

and I agree, but while Brandon is a really good player, Joey is one of the two or three best hitters on the planet.

Over the last three years, Joey has, roughly, a 100 point advantage in OPS points vs LHP over Phillips.

As a Reds fan, who do you want to hit in that situation?

I'm with you on that - Joey is the man.

[puca]

According to this morning's LA Times story, the plan was to stick with Downs thru Bruce. The Angels had no one warming up, according to story - perhaps someone was ready, but I don't know - the story seemed to indicate no one was ready.

In this case, everything went perfectly for us. I mentioned to my wife, had Votto just singled thru the hold (a small one, for sure), Choo has to hold at third. If he grounds out, same thing, Choo advances to third. But Joey went down to get the pitch Downs wanted to throw (and to the place he wanted it) and hit it sharply enough to glance off of Pujols' glove. Probably 95% of the time, that ball gets fielded well enough to record the out. Last night, it didn't, and it squibbled out into right field - game won. Frankly, I think this is what makes baseball so fun. Wheels churned and we got the better of it.

Actually that is a good point, and one more factor to take into consideration. The fact that the Angels had no one warming up when Heisey step up to the plate might have been a good indication that the would go after Votto (or at least not intentionally walk him) with the lefty.

[Hoosier Red]

Actually that is a good point, and one more factor to take into consideration. The fact that the Angels had no one warming up when Heisey step up to the plate might have been a good indication that the would go after Votto (or at least not intentionally walk him) with the lefty.

I think Downs was the 2nd lefty reliever used, so they probably didn't have another lefty to go to.

And I know they used their 3 best "non-closer" relievers so basically Scioscia's choice was to try to get an excellent lefty bat out before walking the lefty killing right handed bat, or walk the excellent lefty bat and try to get the lefty killing right handed bat out.

[Raisor]

I think Downs was the 2nd lefty reliever used, so they probably didn't have another lefty to go to.

And I know they used their 3 best "non-closer" relievers so basically Scioscia's choice was to try to get an excellent lefty bat out before walking the lefty killing right handed bat, or walk the excellent lefty bat and try to get the lefty killing right handed bat out.

Except I don't know if Brandon really is a lefty "killer". Tha'ts his reputation but while he hits LHP better than RHP (except for last year), his career OPS vs LHP is 834, and about .800 over the last three seasons.

Not sure that puts him in the killer range.

Votto is the Lefty killer out of the Votto/Phillips/Bruce threesome.

[RadfordVA]

Funny game. Liked the bunt Monday, didn't like it Wednesday. My team might be 0-2. I'm glad the Reds are 1-1. I'm also glad I just get to watch and enjoy the games, managing seems fun but man it has to wear on you.

[edabbs44]

Except I don't know if Brandon really is a lefty "killer". Tha'ts his reputation but while he hits LHP better than RHP (except for last year), his career OPS vs LHP is 834, and about .800 over the last three seasons.

Not sure that puts him in the killer range.

Votto is the Lefty killer out of the Votto/Phillips/Bruce threesome.

Hitter splits are only one side of the equation. Don't ignore Downs' performance.

[smixsell]

Nice second paragraph. In tonight's game Downs sticking one in the back of Choo (an unforced error) had way more effect on the result of the game than the 2 decisions made by both managers combined.

And don't you LOVE the way Choo didn't try too hard to get out of the way. Just turned his back and took it. You could see that letting an inside pitch hit him was in his mind when he went up there. It was on his list of "things which win for me" in his battle versus their reliver.

[Raisor]

Hitter splits are only one side of the equation. Don't ignore Downs' performance.

From the gamethread:

Let's look at the three year splits as we did the hitters:

Scott Downs
Career vs LHB .604

2010 vs LHB .488
2011 vs LHB .483
2012 vs LHB .488
3 year Average (roughly) .486

Career vs RHB .762
2010 vs RHB .637
2011 vs RHB .581
2012 vs RHB .813
3 year average (roughly) .677


If you take Votto's rough three year average vs LHP .912 and Down's three year average vs LHB .486 and average THOSE together you get .699

If you take Phillips rough three year average vs LHP .800(assuming you walk Votto, keep Downs in to pitch to Phillips so he can pitch to Bruce) and Down's rough three year average vs RHP .677 and average them together you get .738.

Roughly 40 OPS points advantage for Phillips over Votto in that situation.

THEN you can get into the non-stat part of the game. Votto was 0 for the season, and you could say he was due. Phillips already had a big hit in the game, and might not have been due AND he is a threat for a DP.

Advantage Votto, IMO.

[smixsell]

Downs is death on lefties. Get Votto out, walk BP and face another lefty.

Doesn't matter how sick Downs is against lefties. Joey Votto is not not your average lefty.

Pitching to Joey Votto with the game on the line is a bad idea (unless Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle are in the on deck circle).

Putting Votto on and setting up to get a DP from Phillips is the right move. Putting the DP in order with the chance of getting out of the jam with one DP ball tilts the equation strongly in favor of walking Votto IMO.

PS Both lefties Downs faced last night reached base safely.

[LeDoux]

If I have learned anything from all this, it is that the key to scoring Choo is to trick the other teams into pitching to Votto. I suggest from here on out that Votto stagger around in the on-deck circle, faint once or twice, maybe take a few swings at invisible hornets and demand that they return to their venomous hell. If nothing else, it will add interest to the game.

[UCBrownsfan]

Hitter splits are only one side of the equation. Don't ignore Downs' performance.

The most important thing is Joey Votto is the best Left Handed batter against Left Handed pitching in the game. Joey Votto is so good against lefties that most Red's fans don't realize how good Jay Bruce is against lefties. Brandon Phillips has the lowest OPS against lefties of the 3, yet he was the guy they want to walk.

Votto: .917, Bruce: .817, Phillips: .799 (3 year totals)

2012: Only 4 LHH had over 50 AB against lefties with a +800 OPS, Joey Votto was 2nd with a .887, Jay Bruce had a .754
2011: Only 6 LHH had over 50 AB against lefties with a +800 OPS, Joey Votto was 1st with a .987, Jay Bruce was 6th with a .804
2010: 15 LHH had over 50 AB against lefties with a +800 OPS, Joey Votto was 9th at .863, Jay Bruce was 6th with a .899

There is one player to make that list 3 out of the last 3 years:
Joey Votto

There are 2 others to make that list 2 out of the last 3 years:
Adrian Gonzalez
Jay Bruce

[UCBrownsfan]

If you take Votto's rough three year average vs LHP .912 and Down's three year average vs LHB .486 and average THOSE together you get .699



Why would you ever average those together? Do you not think most pitchers Votto goes against have a distinct advantage agaisnt left handed batters? Votto is the top 1%, Downs maybe is the top 15%

Maybe a weighted mean? Votto's 600 appearance, compared to Down's 250 appearance in those situation I could buy. But comparing these splits, you have to compare them to a baseline,

Chapman has a 3 year OPS against of .358 agaisnt lefties, and I'd still have him pitch to Phillips over Votto.

[smixsell]

If you take Votto's rough three year average vs LHP .912 and Down's three year average vs LHB .486 and average THOSE together you get .699



Why would you ever average those together? Do you not think most pitchers Votto goes against have a distinct advantage agaisnt left handed batters? Votto is the top 1%, Downs maybe is the top 15%

Maybe a weighted mean? Votto's 600 appearance, compared to Down's 250 appearance in those situation I could buy. But comparing these splits, you have to compare them to a baseline,

Chapman has a 3 year OPS against of .358 agaisnt lefties, and I'd still have him pitch to Phillips over Votto.

Spot on.

[Raisor]

If you take Votto's rough three year average vs LHP .912 and Down's three year average vs LHB .486 and average THOSE together you get .699



Why would you ever average those together? .

Why not?

I did it for the science.