Based upon peripherals....
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
This ought to be fun.
Lee has a better K/BB rate, mostly due to his amazing walk rate, which is one fifth of his career rate. He also has given up only one homer, while Jimenez has given up 2. Considering one pitches mostly at Safeco and one at Coors, that's to be expected.
But really what this does is point out the major flaw in peripherals in general and FIP in particular.
Jimenez has been unhittable, as evidence by his absurdly low .229 BAPIP. Lee has a very normal .308 BABIP
Anyone who has watched Jimenez pitch can attest that it is not luck that is causing his low BABIP. No one is getting good swings off this guy, and he realized that he doesn't have to strike everyone out, he can just let them get themselves out with their weak swings off of his unhittable stuff.
I would not be surprised to see Jimenez maintain something close to this low BABIP all season, just like Pedro did when he was dominating hitters.
Lee is having a great year, but he has not been nearly as dominant as Jimenez. Yeah, if you ignore how hittable they each have been, then one could make a case for Lee being better so far. But I think that would not be fair or accurate.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Then let's bet.
I have seen both pitch this season (on TV) and looked over both of their stats. I know who I want to put my money on.
And while .229 might be an unsustainable BABIP, there have been many pitchers who have had dominant seasons who have had exceptionally low BABIP for that season, very close to .229. And speaking of unsustainable, Lee is going to have to sustain a walk rate that is one fifth of his careee rate.
Now we are going to have to define "better", especially considering that one pitches in one of the most, if not the most pitcher fiendly parks, and one pitches in one of, if not the most hitter friendly parks. Any suggestions?
And I'm fine with just being able to say in a post that I was right or wrong as being the end result of the bet.
What do you say? This could be fun.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
My argument doesn't require either player to sustain anything out of character but rather it is anticipating regression to their true talent (and yes there are assumptions here that I'm assuming most understand are being made and frankly might be wrong)...
For instance Zips regresses both back to it's estimate of their true talent and suggests that going forward Lee would post an ERA of 3.16 and a FIP of 3.10 during the remainder of the season while Jimenez would post an ERA of 3.79 and a FIP of 3.55.
That's not to suggest that Zips is destiny or those numbers are so absolute that they need chiseled into stone. The point is the projections get at differences in true talent however. Those Zips numbers also jive with the last three seasons for each player.
So really the question is how much of Jimenez is real and the result of increased development as a pitcher (i.e. a shift in his true talent) and how much might he regress? Maybe Jimenez will see his BABIP regress (this is almost a certainty) but his walk rate is actually a real improvement (which isn't captured in the projection meaning the projection would underestimate his true talent). That kind of remains to be seen.
At this point however, i'm arguing that its more likely Lee's performance is closer to a sustainable level than Jimenez's.
BTW, I don't bet but for what its worth, the argument is pretty clearly and strongly stated for posterity's sake. Even if it's wrong, I'm comfortable with the process. And really, the difference between the two isn't like a "do I take Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf" moment...
Last edited by jojo; 06-10-2010 at 01:49 PM.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
That sucks, I agree with everything you wrote. Great analysis. Dead on. I was hoping to have a fun debate. Oh well.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
I agree that Lee's stats are more sustainable. But that doesn't answer the question of who is/will be better.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Lee pitches in the woeful AL West, while Jimenez pitches in the far more competitive (and offense-heavy) NL West.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Jimenez doesn't get to pitch in Safeco
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
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