Playoff rotation question

[Billy Hamilton's Legs]

In the case where either the Reds win the division or advance to the NLDS via the wildcard, who is the 4th starter (assuming Cueto is done for the season)?

A reminder, this question is who WILL be the starter, not who should. I would almost guarantee the first three spots would be occupied by some order of Bailey, Latos, and Arroyo. But who gets the fourth spot, Cingrani or Leake? I have trouble seeing Dusty giving the job to Cingrani considering Dusty is so partial to Leake. However, what if the lineup of the opposing team is heavily lefty? Underlying this is that Leake's peripherals suggest perhaps he's playing a bit over his head and Cingrani's suggest he's a really damn good pitcher in the making. What do you think happens? Is it all up to Dusty or do Walt and Price get a say?

[reds44]

Latos
Arroyo
Bailey
Leake

Cingrani to the pen. If the Reds didn't want to limit his innings it would be a tough choice, but that makes it an easy call.

[mattfeet]

Depending on home/away and opponent, my answer would be different between Bailey, Leake, and Cingrani.

[swaisuc]

I really don't think this is a question. Cingrani is going to the pen. How you order 2-4 is up for grabs though.

[REDREAD]

Latos
Arroyo
Bailey
Leake

Cingrani to the pen. If the Reds didn't want to limit his innings it would be a tough choice, but that makes it an easy call.

Yep, this is the way I would do it.
All four of those guys have earned a spot in the playoff rotation.
Plus, Cingrani in the pen is an incredible weapon. If a starter gets in trouble early, you bring in Simon or Lecure in the 3rd inning, then Cingrani could pitch innings 4-7 or something like that..

Also, Cingrani (along with Parra, I am assuming Marshal is done for the season) would be very valuable as a 2nd lefty out of the pen..

[Mitri]

Some of this will depend on whether or not they're in the WC playoff game or not. Also, if the playoff picture looks pretty well set with a week left they may have the chance to rest/skip guys and line up the preferred order for the postseason.

That said, if I were making the decision I'd give Latos and then Bailey the first two starts, maximizing their potential postseason innings.

[RedsManRick]

I would take Cingrani over Leake without thinking twice. Despite Leake's current ERA, he's still basically a 4.00 ERA, command & control, defense reliant guy who won't usually beat himself but who lacks the stuff to dominate. He's very similar to Arroyo in that way.

Against a patient, focused offense, I'd prefer the guy who can miss bats even when they know what's coming. And if Cingrani can't get it done, Leake will be there to pick up the ball and run with it.

[RadfordVA]

If Reds face Cardinals I like Cingrani over Leake. Cards have a losing record vs lefties. Everyone else in playoff hunt handles lefties ok so I will take Leake starting and Cingrani out of the bullpen for high leverage situations in those series.

[RedlegJake]

I like Cingrani to start with either a starter or a bullpen arm prepared and ready to come in knowing full well that Tony is good for 5-6 only. But the potential is better for a really, really good 5-6. Have Leake ready to take over.

[Billy Hamilton's Legs]

It seems people's answers have inevitably started answering the "who should" question, which is probably better for debate anyway. But I'm curious if people think the Reds would actually start Cingrani over Leake. Would they? And again, does anyone know if it's solely in Dusty's hands or are other opinions taken into account?

[REDREAD]

It seems people's answers have inevitably started answering the "who should" question, which is probably better for debate anyway. But I'm curious if people think the Reds would actually start Cingrani over Leake. Would they? And again, does anyone know if it's solely in Dusty's hands or are other opinions taken into account?

If I had to bet, Dusty is going to put Cingrani in the bullpen.

I can see the argument others have posted for putting Cingrani in the postseason rotation, but that's not Dusty's way.

I do concede though that Leake and Arroyo tend to struggle against the Cards though, while Cingrani seems to handle them better. That's a tough one.
I guess I'd give Leake and Arroyo a very short leash vs the Cards..
On the other hand, Arroyo has come up big in every playoff game he's started (if I can remember). I think Leake has earned a postseason rotation spot as well.

[swaisuc]

Ya, I don't think it has much to do with putting Cingrani in the playoff rotation. I think in different circumstances, Dusty would do that. Will Dusty put one of the other guys in the bullpen? No chance.

[PuffyPig]

I think it will depend on how the pitch to the end of the year.

And I absolutely think that Cingrani could be in the mix if he continues to pitch well.

[Billy Hamilton's Legs]

a little food for thought, here are the top 10 leaders in k/9 with a minimum of 70IP

"Name" Team K/9
Yu Darvish Rangers 11.96
Tony Cingrani Reds 10.63
A.J. Burnett Pirates 9.93
Shelby Miller Cardinals 9.84
Matt Harvey Mets 9.8
Anibal Sanchez Tigers 9.74
Jose Fernandez Marlins 9.7
Max Scherzer Tigers 9.66
Chris Sale White Sox 9.53

Whoa.

[Caveat Emperor]

Latos, Bailey, Arroyo.

That group deserved to win last the short series last year, and they deserve to pitch the short series again this year.

Cingrani to the pen as also an easy call. He can pitch there, and he's been incredibly effective when used there this year. He's a weapon in the post-season, especially when you consider that Latos and Arroyo both tend to get hit hard when they reach whatever "wall" they hit later in games.