Cueto Diagnosed w/ "Mild Oblique Strain"

[REDREAD]

IMO, if Cueto can't pitch tommorrow, you just bite the bullet and DL him and add Leake.

In hindsight, it's a real shame they chose Simon over Leake on the postseason roster. Simon hasn't appeared in a game yet, and with Arrondondo, he was kind of a duplicate mop up man anyhow.
I realize that it's easy for me to say this in hindsight.. it's just if Leake was already on the postseason roster, this would be much less stressful.

[paulrichjr]

IMO, if Cueto can't pitch tommorrow, you just bite the bullet and DL him and add Leake.

In hindsight, it's a real shame they chose Simon over Leake on the postseason roster. Simon hasn't appeared in a game yet, and with Arrondondo, he was kind of a duplicate mop up man anyhow.
I realize that it's easy for me to say this in hindsight.. it's just if Leake was already on the postseason roster, this would be much less stressful.

If Leake had made the roster I would bet a lot of money he would have pitched game 1 instead of Latos.

[REDREAD]

If Leake had made the roster I would bet a lot of money he would have pitched game 1 instead of Latos.

Could've been.. that would not have been a bad idea either.

[reds44]

You don't pitch Latos on 3 days rest, again. You just don't. I know everybody is crapping in their pants at the thought of going 5 games, but you can't treat game 4 like a must win, because it's not. If you throw Latos on 3 day rest and lose, you're looking at Arroyo on 3 days in game 5. That's absurd.

Yes, Latos "only" threw 57 pitches on Saturday, but that was 4 days after he "only" threw 80 pitches in St. Louis. He's not going to be at full strength, he's just not.

Pitch Leake. Hope you can get 5 out of him, then worst case have fully rested Latos there for Game 5.

[fearofpopvol1]

That's a bit of hyperbole. Leake is better than probably 95% of the fifth starters teams would have the luxury of throwing out there in an emergency.

His home ERA is not much worse than Homer Bailey's home ERA. It didn't stop Homer from pitching well tonight. Further, Leake is a groundball pitcher (almost 2-1 groundball to flyball this season). Unfortunately for him, he was snake bit by a very unsustainable HR/FB rate. I don't think that should at all be a consideration. If the Reds feel Cueto can't go and they aren't ready to pitch Latos, then Leake should get the call.

That said, there are other ways to do this without putting Cueto out, so I would go one of those routes not because of Leake but because of not wanting to eliminate Cueto from the LCS.

Leake has also not had Sept/Oct numbers like Bailey's at any point in his career. They're not really comparable pitchers at this juncture.

[Caveat Emperor]

I really don't think Leake is given enough credit here. He may not have dominant stuff, but the kid is a pitcher and a battler.

Leake has been a mediocre pitcher with middling stuff his entire career. He's not a good post-season option at all.

[Tom Servo]

I like Mike, but I am firmly in the camp that does not want him making a post season start.

[Brutus]

Leake has also not had Sept/Oct numbers like Bailey's at any point in his career. They're not really comparable pitchers at this juncture.

2012:

Player (K%, BB%, GB%, FB%, LD%, HR/FB, FIP, xFIP, SIERA)

Leake (15.3%, 5.4%, 48.9%, 26.6%, 24.5%, 16.7%, 4.42, 3.82, 4.01)
Bailey (19.2%, 6.0%, 44.9%, 34.4%, 19.7%, 11.5%, 3.97, 3.94, 3.84)

I really think people are letting a couple of excellent starts the last two weeks otherwise taint how similar these two pitchers were for much of the year. Other than an unsustainable rate of homers to flyballs allowed, Leake and Bailey weren't very different pitchers this season.

I love what Homer has done the last few starts as much as anyone. He's been stellar. But I think cherry-picking a few starts and acting like suddenly he and Leake were otherwise wholly different pitchers is completely ignoring over 5 months of data. And that aside, this isn't even about whether or not he and Bailey are similar. It is more about Leake not getting enough credit regardless of what anyone thinks of Homer.

[Brutus]

Leake has been a mediocre pitcher with middling stuff his entire career. He's not a good post-season option at all.

If a career 3.87 xFIP and 4.02 SIERA is your version of a mediocre pitcher... I'd love to see what kind of staff is acceptable to you. It must be a darn good one.

[Edskin]

You don't pitch Latos on 3 days rest, again. You just don't. I know everybody is crapping in their pants at the thought of going 5 games, but you can't treat game 4 like a must win, because it's not. If you throw Latos on 3 day rest and lose, you're looking at Arroyo on 3 days in game 5. That's absurd.

Yes, Latos "only" threw 57 pitches on Saturday, but that was 4 days after he "only" threw 80 pitches in St. Louis. He's not going to be at full strength, he's just not.

Pitch Leake. Hope you can get 5 out of him, then worst case have fully rested Latos there for Game 5.

This. If you pitch Latos tomorrow it is a little bit of a panic move and then if there is a game 5 you have the Giants with Cain, and all the momentum, facing Leake or Arroyo on short rest.

Just pitch Leake and hope he can match Zito... That isn't absurdly far fetched. We need the bats to do their job.

And I'll be honest... I talked to a buddy of mine who pitched the in minors and he said it.... If Cueto misses a playoff start with a midly strained oblique? I try really hard not to judge players' injuries/toughness because we just don't know, but I'd be lying if I said I'm not a little disappointed in him if he can't go

[fearofpopvol1]

2012:

Player (K%, BB%, GB%, FB%, LD%, HR/FB, FIP, xFIP, SIERA)

Leake (15.3%, 5.4%, 48.9%, 26.6%, 24.5%, 16.7%, 4.42, 3.82, 4.01)
Bailey (19.2%, 6.0%, 44.9%, 34.4%, 19.7%, 11.5%, 3.97, 3.94, 3.84)

I really think people are letting a couple of excellent starts the last two weeks otherwise taint how similar these two pitchers were for much of the year. Other than an unsustainable rate of homers to flyballs allowed, Leake and Bailey weren't very different pitchers this season.

I love what Homer has done the last few starts as much as anyone. He's been stellar. But I think cherry-picking a few starts and acting like suddenly he and Leake were otherwise wholly different pitchers is completely ignoring over 5 months of data. And that aside, this isn't even about whether or not he and Bailey are similar. It is more about Leake not getting enough credit regardless of what anyone thinks of Homer.

You're right, they're not the same pitchers this season. Take Leake's bat out of the equation, and Bailey has been worth about a full win more than Leake. Bailey has also been pitching in a way Leake has never pitched before for September/October. Bailey > Leake

I like Leake. I think for a #5 guy, he's good. I think he can continue to improve in the future. But Leake at GAB during the 2012 playoffs scare the living daylights out of me and apparently most of RZ.

[Slyder]

This is all IMO. If there's ANY chance of Cueto being good for game 5 you go for the knockout punch and run Latos out there in Game 4. Short rest or not, I think after his game 1 appearance he's in the Giants heads. To be able to come in and perform like he did with no notice... imagine a full day of preparation! Have Cueto go game 5 and see if he can wake the echos of Curt Schilling or Willis Reed with the kitchen sink ready to go in the pen (read EVERYBODY) if Cueto can only go a couple.

[Reds Fanatic]

I don't see any way Cueto would be close to ready. There is no way he can pitch with an oblique no matter how mild especially with his motion.

I just hate the idea of using Leake in this situation. He had not pitched in 12 days (September 29th was his last start) and I am not sure how much he had been working being off the roster for this series.

If they do have to end up using Leake then I would have LeCure ready because he may have to save the day again.

[redsfaninbsg]

My biggest concern is the Giants blow it open early. There offense has been terrible for three games, not only are they due for a little luck/progression to the norm but, they shell Leake. The objective tomorrow has to be to keep it even through five.

[Reds Fanatic]

Another thing that might factor in is there are some reports that Latos is having some flu like symptoms today.