More talent: Reds or Cardinals?

[MikeThierry]

Ok, that's cool. But if you want to position that as a rational statement, I'd simply ask you what you think the odds are of Miller staying in the rotation all year and posting an ERA under 1.50 are. You won't hear another peep from me on the matter unless you directly ask.

Agree with you here. I'm excited about Miller but if he stays around a 1.50 ERA, give him the Cy Young now. I think reasonable expectations for him is somewhere close to a 3.00 ERA, which is still very good for a rookie.

[Salukifan2]

yeah, there are so many variable involved that i am not even going to try to predict anything. I just hope he finishes sub-3.50 ERA. That would be great I think.

[bucksfan2]

Let's break it down.

Catcher: Yadier all day. Best in the league not named Buster.
First Base: Big advantage Reds.
Second Base: I take the Reds, but it's closer than you might think. Matt Carpenter is showing his potential at the plate.
Third Base: Advantage Cards, but a big year from Frazier could make this at least a tie.
Shortstop: Who knows? It's probably a wash, but I'll give a slight edge to Cozart because of glove and experience.
Left field: Holliday, Holliday, Holliday. Even when Ludwick is healthy.
Center field: Give me Choo seven days a week and twice Sundays. I know the defensive range is horrendous, but that dude flat rakes.
Right field: Beltran. It pains me to say that, but Bruce just isn't there yet. Now that Beltran has been relatively healthy the last couple years, you've got to take him.

#1 Starter: Wainwright is trying to make me choose him, but I'll take Cueto by a braid. Open to criticism here.
#2 Starter: Latos over Garcia, and it's not particularly close.
#3 Starter: I'm giving a tie to Westbrook and Arroyo. We know who Bronson is--I'm not sure we've seen the real Jake Westbrook recently. Smoke and mirrors.
#4 Starter: Probably Lynn, although some of his K/BB success is probably due to coming from the pen. It's close. Homer could prove me wrong.
#5 Starter: I feel confident just saying Shelby Miller by a mile. Any objections? I didn't think so.

Bullpen: We don't even need to break this one down. Reds pen makes the Cards pen look like the Bad News Bears.

After a completely arbitrary tally system, I'll give a slight edge to the Reds, but there's a reason these two have been battling for the better part of four seasons. A worthy rival, that's for sure. Feel free to rip my rankings--I did this in like 6 minutes.

Nice post.

I will address it a little further.

C: Yadi is the best in baseball. But I do think the Reds platoon is in the top tier of catchers. One thing to note is while the Reds will do a good job of divvying up the C duty Yadi will catch more games than any other catcher in baseball. It looks good now but what happens in August?

1b: Votto is one of the best hitters in baseball. As much as I hate to admit it Craig is pretty good himself. Its Votto without a doubt but I wouldn't say by a mile.

2b: I think its Phillips and its not even close.

SS: Give me Cozart over Kozma any day of the week. Cozart has more pop and is a pretty good defender. Kozma is an AAA SS forced to play in the bigs because the Cards relied on Furcal.

3b: Push. If you go by history its Freese but he isn't playing well now. I think both are similar in that they can be streaky but can get red hot.

LF: Holliday and its not even close.

CF: Jay is the better defender but Choo is the better all around player. Advantage Choo.

RF: Over 162 its Bruce. Beltran has been better this season but if your going to project going forward for the rest of the season I go Bruce.

Bullpen: Reds and is it any question?

Starting Rotation: Here is where it gets interesting. If I had to rank the pitchers Wainwright would be #1 followed by Latos and Cueto. If you put the top 2 together I say its a push. I would take the Reds 3 over Westbrook right now because Arroyo is going to take the ball 32 times a season and Westbrook is now on the DL. The rest IMO is a crapshoot. I think Bailey can be the best of the bunch, probably as good as any of the top 4. However he hasn't shown consistency so far this year.

I think if you asked me where the Reds biggest advantage is, its a 162 game season. The Cards are placing a lot of faith in young arms (Lynn and Miller) who I doubt will be able to pitch at a high level for an entire season. I also question whether Molina and Beltran will stay healthy over the entire season. Its one thing to ride a 25 year old OF hard, its another to ride a 35 year old injury prone OF hard. Same can be said about Yadi, if he is a 1b then I have no problem with the Cards playing him every day, as a C it takes its toll.

[MikeThierry]

I'm not seeing the Yadi argument considering that he's done it pretty much every year since he has taken over as catcher. Yadi batted .403 last August with a .999 OPS, which was far and away the best month he had last year. It's a moot point about him breaking down.

As for Cozart vs. Kozma, Cozart might have slightly more pop (slightly is the key word) but Kozma is the better hitter at this point. You're right that he is a AAA SS to replace Furcal but A. he's probably putting up the type of numbers Furcal would have put up if he was healthy and B. he's a better hitter right now than Cozart is. I think both are not long term solutions for their club and both clubs will have to address the SS position somewhere in the near future.

EDIT: I looked at the numbers. According to baseball reference, Kozma is putting up a .1 WAR this season and Cozart is putting up a -.3 WAR thus far. Not exactly great production from either. If we're talking about the best of the worst though, Kozma to me at least has the edge.

[757690]

I'm not seeing the Yadi argument considering that he's done it pretty much every year since he has taken over as catcher. Yadi batted .403 last August with a .999 OPS, which was far and away the best month he had last year. It's a moot point about him breaking down.

As for Cozart vs. Kozma, Cozart might have slightly more pop (slightly is the key word) but Kozma is the better hitter at this point. You're right that he is a AAA SS to replace Furcal but A. he's probably putting up the type of numbers Furcal would have put up if he was healthy and B. he's a better hitter right now than Cozart is. I think both are not long term solutions for their club and both clubs will have to address the SS position somewhere in the near future.

EDIT: I looked at the numbers. According to baseball reference, Kozma is putting up a .1 WAR this season and Cozart is putting up a -.3 WAR thus far. Not exactly great production from either. If we're talking about the best of the worst though, Kozma to me at least has the edge.

Agree in Molina. As long as those shipments keep coming in, he'll be fine in Sept.

As for Cozart vs. Kozma, the question isn't whose doing better right now. That's a boring question that can be answered by simply looking at their baseball-reference pages. The question is who has has more talent. Which roster is likely to help produce more wins for their team over a 162 game schedule.

Comparing the talent levels of Cozart vs. Kozma, this is the most revealing stat to me:

Kozma's best minor league numbers aren't as good as what Cozart already produced in the majors last year.

[MikeThierry]

Agree in Molina. As long as those shipments keep coming in, he'll be fine in Sept.

As for Cozart vs. Kozma, the question isn't whose doing better right now. That's a boring question that can be answered by simply looking at their baseball-reference pages. The question is who has has more talent. Which roster is likely to help produce more wins for their team over a 162 game schedule.

Comparing the talent levels of Cozart vs. Kozma, this is the most revealing stat to me:

Kozma's best minor league numbers aren't as good as what Cozart already produced in the majors last year.

Considering that Cozart produced an OPS+ of 80 last season, I think the bar is pretty low for Kozma to match that on the major league level this year. To me, this argument is a push considering that we don't know what kind of production we will see from Kozma in a full year and we are still waiting for that talent level of Cozart to show. Right now, we are making arguments pro this guy or con this guy based off of incomplete pictures. That's why I think ultimately it's a push right now.

[Patrick Bateman]

Kozma is a pathetic hitter.

Calling him better than just about anyone is a bit of a stretch. Not saying Cozart is much, but hard to argue that Kozma isn't one of the worst starters in the bigs at this point considering he isn't much of a rangy guy.

[WildcatFan]

I think if you asked me where the Reds biggest advantage is, its a 162 game season. The Cards are placing a lot of faith in young arms (Lynn and Miller) who I doubt will be able to pitch at a high level for an entire season. I also question whether Molina and Beltran will stay healthy over the entire season. Its one thing to ride a 25 year old OF hard, its another to ride a 35 year old injury prone OF hard. Same can be said about Yadi, if he is a 1b then I have no problem with the Cards playing him every day, as a C it takes its toll.

This is a good summary, although I don't have any qualms throwing Yadier out there at catcher every day. Everything else I'll agree with. Beltran, while he hasn't been immune, has played at least 140 games the last two seasons, though. Not sure we can count him as broken just yet. Still quite a bit of life in those bones.

[OGB]

I've been on record here saying that the bullpen will cost them the division. That's before the recent moves they have made though. Adding Mujica as the closer and bringing up two studs including Carlos Martinez has really solidified the pen. Rosenthal has been pitching great as of late. The Cardinals didn't wait until July to fix their pen like they did the previous two years. If they were going to stick with the group they had, I would agree with you but the paradigm shifted when they brought in more talented pitchers.

What's the outlook on Motte's health? Do you see Mujica as a long term solution there, or is it worth auditioning one of the live arm youngsters?

[REDREAD]

As far as position by position, here's my take on the debatable ones.

Catcher: Clear advantage to the Cards here. The Reds have a nice solution, but Hannigan worries me. Mez is an unproven youngster with potential. Yadi is a perennial Allstar. I like our guys, but this one is the Cardinals, not even close

3b: Freese > Frazier. Honestly, I like Frazier, but let's say hypothetically for one year only, we could trade Frazier for Freese, no financial issues involved.. Who would not make that trade? That's a no brainer. Freese is off to a slow start, but he's got a 4 year track record. He will bounce back, unless there's an injury I don't know about.

SS: probably by the end of the year, Cozart is slightly better. Not a huge edge though.

RF: This is a tough one to call. I'm going to give the Cards a slight edge here though. Beltran is simply a more steady, more mature hitter than Bruce. I love Bruce though.

Starting rotation: Man, this is way too tough to call. Both have great staffs.
Carpenter is apparently throwing again, he might come back this year.
I really like Lynn. I am going to wimp out and call this a push at this stage of the season.

[50YrRedsFan]

The Cardinals are playing great to start off...but their bullpen is shaky.

Overall the Reds are more talented...but I don't think the team is putting it all together exactly like I expected this season. This was the year I thought Bruce would find some consistency and become an RBI machine, but now I'm left wondering if that will ever happen. The bullpen has been exactly what I expected. But even if the Cardinals are less talented, they always seem to play all the way up to their potential...something the Reds can't seem to do, at least when it counts against good teams.

Agreed. Talent wise, it may be a push. Maybe it's mental. When the Reds start beating the good teams, then I will say they are the better. The recent play against Wash, Atlanta and PIT shows we are not there yet. At the same time, STL went to Wash and swept them in their home park, and have taken 4 of 6 from us. They have also taken 2 of 3 from the Giants.The last week of this month should be telling as we play 4 against CLE and 3 against PIT.

[The DARK]

It's definitely pretty close overall.

C: Molina, handily. Hanigan is probably his equal on defense, and Mesoraco could eventually be on offense, but Yadier's consistency is unparalleled.
1B: Votto, though you'd be a fool to ignore how good Craig can be.
2B: Phillips, though Carpenter has been flashing quite the bat.
SS: Cozart over Descalso, but Furcal gets the edge when he's healthy.
3B: Push. Freese is usually a little better, but he's also more injury prone and has had a bad season.
LF: Holliday, no matter who's playing.
CF: Choo without question.
RF: Beltran over Bruce. Bruce isn't that far behind, but he can't help but be maddeningly inconsistent.
SP: Slight Cardinals edge. It's safe to assume they'll come back to earth, and we get Cueto back soon, but the best ERA in the majors is hard to argue with.
RP: The biggest gap on the list. Reds have arguably the best relief crew in the majors, while the Cardinals have arguably the worst.

I'll chime in with the last four pages and say they're about even right now, with a slight edge to the Reds over the course of the season. I expect it to be back and forth up until the end, and the 2nd place team will probably make the wild card.

[PuffyPig]

Cozart had a 2.3 WAR last year, had 52 extra base hits, and a.687 OPS.

Kozma had trouble maintaining a .600 OPS at AAA over the last 2 years. He's barely above .600 this year. And he's not even close to Cozart's league as a defender. Cozart was a gold glove finalist last year.

Even with Cozart's BABIP of .198 this year, he's close to Kozma's OPS lever this year.

Cozart may have his problems, but defence and being better than Kozma aren't on that list.

[PuffyPig]

SS: Cozart over Descalso, but Furcal gets the edge when he's healthy..

It's not 2012. Kozma is the SS and Furcal is out for the year.

[Tony Cloninger]

Agreed. Talent wise, it may be a push. Maybe it's mental. When the Reds start beating the good teams, then I will say they are the better. The recent play against Wash, Atlanta and PIT shows we are not there yet. At the same time, STL went to Wash and swept them in their home park, and have taken 4 of 6 from us. They have also taken 2 of 3 from the Giants.The last week of this month should be telling as we play 4 against CLE and 3 against PIT.

They beat good teams last year. Plenty of them. It's not like they have a mental block about it this year.