.He'll be really entertaining walking from the batter's box to between firstbase and back to the dugout almost 500 times in 09
In a way, he will be. To each his own.
As soon as I get a free 10-month stretch, i'll do that. Seriously though, I have read a LOT of threads on that. What's your point? Are you seriously going to say that a walk-based OBP will remain high when a hitter slumps? Walks do not remain consistant throughout a season. They fluctuate just as hits do.
Even if OB is more math than you can personally digest, Taveras is a leadoff hitter who's never scored more than 83 runs in a season. He averages 88 runs per 162 games. In the simplest of terms, he's no good at his job.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
In any given situation a hit is better than a walk. Walks are more consistent and more slump proof. And I'd rather have a walk than a "productive out." A team only has 27 outs to use up in a game and with few exceptions avoiding using one of those is better. There are situations where a sac fly or bunt are useful and preferred over a walk, but they are so few and far between that using that to justify making a lot of outs is non-sense IMO. Get me a better player that gets on base and I'll take my chances. The situations where the "productive out" is useful are always dependent on guys being on base, so getting guys that can do that should be priority number one and the "productive outs" should be a secondary concern. If the situation calls for a bunt, there are always guys on the bench (i.e. the pitching staff) that can do that.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
everything about this post is flat wrong. walks never slump. buys with a consistent OBP of say around .380 despite fluctuating BA's still help their team by being on base.
Taveras has no real repeatable ability to get to 1B, BECAUSE he does not walk. In his non career year of 2007, his career OPS is BELOW .650. I'd like to point out that in his career year, he only played in 97 games. His exposure was limited and he certainly surprised with a .100 point increase in his OPS vs his career norm.
Taveras couldn't take advantage of a park made for hitters of all kinds. His doubles output was not affected by the deadening of the ball, but the question is why not? With his speed and the expanse of that park, he should have been a 40+ doubles guy. Speed never slumps right? His best weapon is the SB, but his percentage as been decidedly average accept for last year. Did he suddenly get faster? Or did, in what was an arbitration year, he realize he needed a counting stat to boost his argument? I dunno, but that is a possibility. He never had that many SB attempts before.
Taveras is best used as a pinch runner/25th man on the roster. Instead he'll be a black hole of suck for 1200 PA's over two freaking years.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
You might want to put away the rolleyes emoticon. Over the last three seasons, by month, the correlation between Adam Dunn's monthly BA and IsoD (OBP minus BA) was -0.49 with an IsoD Standard Deviation of only .037. Dunn's two lowest IsoD months occurred when he hit .287 and .310. Dunn's three highest IsoD months happened when he hit .157, .217 and .161.
That's basically the "slump proofing" effect Ron's talking about and only once during any month did Dunn's OBP slip below .328. Only four times out of 18 months did Dunn produce an OBP lower than .352. BA-driven OBP players like Taveras don't have the ability to do that because they're doing nothing but making Outs when they slump. Ron's not wrong about this.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
If Dickerson gets buried on the bench and Taveras is hitting like all these geniuses think he will then the Reds will be buried in last place and Dusty will get his head chopped off by Bob Cast and Redszone will be like Emerald City and the stat guys around here will be running thru the poppys with Dorothy.
I need to know what the contract looks like before I know how I really feel about this. If we got him on the cheap, I can live with it. Especially if Baldelli and Dye are on the way. I know getting one of them is probably the maximum for the Reds, but I can dream. I would love some outfield depth where Baldelli could actually be the backup to all three OF spots (and possibly take over for Taveras in CF). That would give us an outfield of Dye in LF, Baldelli in CF and Bruce in RF with a bench of Taveras and Dickerson.
Walks don't advance Runners? Hmn...
In 2008, 202 Runs were scored during the MLB season when the hitter at the place walked with the bases loaded. Those walks advanced 606 Baserunners. Now, do you think that maybe a lot more Runners than that were advanced by bases on balls with Runners on 1st and/or 1st and 2nd?
How many Baserunners do you think were advanced by bunt Singles?
And exactly how does adding a Baserunner, either in addition to advancing one or by himself, not put "pressure" on a defense even if that base was acquired via Walk? Answer? Any on-base event pressures the opposition. That's why they're all so important.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
--Are the Reds still interested in Jerry Hairston Jr.? "Yes. He could end up being the left fielder if we can't get that RBI man, which might be hard to do at this point. We may have a different type of team, where we rely on speed and defense and try to manufacture runs. We've still got some guys who can hit the ball out of the ballpark -- (Joey) Votto, (Jay) Bruce and (Edwin) Encarnacion. But we're going to a little bit different kind of team."
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“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
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