I was actually looking forward to seeing Yanish every day at SS.I guess 10 years of losing can do that to ya.
I would agree that this is an upgrade and should help some.
I was actually looking forward to seeing Yanish every day at SS.I guess 10 years of losing can do that to ya.
I would agree that this is an upgrade and should help some.
With Cabrera's glove and bat both on the decline, I'm not terribly excited. But it's certainly better than Alex Gonzalez or JHJ.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
So....
Stubbs CF
Cabrera SS
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Gomes LF (Hopefully)
Hernandez/Hanigan C
Pitcher
It could be worse.
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It has been fairly undisputed that the Reds were weak at SS.I give them some credit for signing one the better if not best SS free agents this year.
If his defense is more career than 2009, I am ok with this. If his defense is very poor once again, then this is a terrible signing.
And the one who loses the 40th spot is????????? Sutton? Taveras?
Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.
I'm not going to throw a party because we signed Orlando Cabrera but I will admit I'm very happy with this signing. At the end of the year if you asked RedZone how they would feel if Paul Janish was the starting SS for 2010 the overwhelming majority would be totally against that. As the offseason went on it appeared the lovefest for Janish's defense got increasingly bigger and most posters would of been ok with him starting at SS for this year. I'm not one of those people, I like Janish but I feel there was a pretty decent chance he was going to start the season hitting .188 going into May and then we have a huge black hole in the lineup and were rotationg Sutton and Rosales in and out along with Janish getting terrible offensive production out of SS. Will it be a hit defensively? Yeah, Cabrera's getting older and with age comes decline, but with the offensive woes the Reds had in 2009, I'll take the potential extra offense and I'll live with the defensive hit the Reds might take. And please, if a ball happens to sneak through short on the second series of the year, please don't have 8 posts in the game thread say the same thing: Janish gets to that ball.
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Both the '08 and the '09 version of Cabrera put up a .705 OPS? Did his defense get worse or something?Let's hope he can play more like the 2008 Orlando Cabrera instead of the 2009 version.
FWIW, here's what PECOTA sees for Cabrera:
And Paul Janish:Code:Percentile AVG OBP SLG 90o 0.295 0.355 0.430 75o 0.283 0.341 0.404 60o 0.274 0.331 0.385 50o 0.265 0.322 0.366 40o 0.259 0.314 0.351 25o 0.247 0.300 0.326 10o 0.220 0.269 0.269 Weighted Mean 0.268 0.325 0.372
I think Jansih is clearly the superior defender, but Cabrera is still likely an upgrade -- and the price is right. I'd have liked to see Janish get the opportunity personally, given that his BABIP have been ridiculously though, but I'm hardly going to complain about adding legitimate talent.Code:Percentile AVG OBP SLG 90o 0.260 0.334 0.406 75o 0.240 0.313 0.370 60o 0.230 0.303 0.352 50o 0.224 0.297 0.343 40o 0.220 0.292 0.334 25o 0.202 0.273 0.303 10o 0.190 0.259 0.280 Weighted Mean 0.223 0.296 0.341
For me, the most interesting thing is who they take off the 40 man. I'd have to think it's Sutton. And if Gomes gets signed, then it will be an OF. We can only hope it's Taveras.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 01-31-2010 at 12:13 AM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Taking the numbers put up by position last season for Cincinnati:
CF, SS, RF, and 3B should be light years better than last season.
2B and 1B may regress.
C and LF should be a bit better, but are much more difficult to discern.
Much improved from this time last season.
So, can we now quit with the whole Jocketty asleep at the wheel ridiculousness?
I think we might be looking at these below as some possibilities. I don't know who will get moved, but, I don't think it will be WT.
Code:So.... Stubbs CF vs. Right .261 .320 .420 .740 vs. Left .286 .333 .500 .833 Cabrera SS vs. Right .289 .311 .400 .711 vs. Left .271 .327 .362 .689 Votto 1B vs. Right .319 .419 .583 1.002 vs. Left .329 .400 .531 .931 Phillips 2B vs. Right .267 .324 .416 .740 vs. Left .301 .342 .541 .883 Rolen 3B vs. Right .283 .338 .411 .749 vs. Left .374 .459 .591 1.050 Bruce RF vs. Right .229 .299 .527 .826 vs. Left .210 .313 .330 .643 Gomes LF vs. Right .244 .320 .539 .859 vs. Left .307 .369 .545 .914 Hernandez vs. Right .246 .332 .348 .680 vs. Left .288 .348 .400 .748 Pitcher Tevaras CF vs. Right .247 .285 .294 .579 vs. Left .219 .245 .257 .502 Cabrera SS vs. Right .289 .311 .400 .711 vs. Left .271 .327 .362 .689 Votto 1B vs. Right .319 .419 .583 1.002 vs. Left .329 .400 .531 .931 Phillips 2B vs. Right .267 .324 .416 .740 vs. Left .301 .342 .541 .883 Rolen 3B vs. Right .283 .338 .411 .749 vs. Left .374 .459 .591 1.050 Bruce RF vs. Right .229 .299 .527 .826 vs. Left .210 .313 .330 .643 Nix LF vs. Right .249 .300 .502 .802 vs. Left .156 .206 .250 .456 Hernandez vs. Right .246 .332 .348 .680 vs. Left .288 .348 .400 .748
Last edited by Spring~Fields; 01-31-2010 at 12:19 AM.
In 2008, Cabrera posted a .705 OPS but made up for it with a +14.0 UZR in the field, making him worth +3.5 wins. As you pointed out, Cabrera posted the same exact OPS in 2009 as he did in 2008, however, his defense took a major step backwards as he posted a -15.3 UZR, giving him just a +0.6 WAR. FWIW, Janish was worth 1.1 wins in 2009 thanks to his +11.7 UZR in 592.1 innings at shortstop.
If Cabrera can rebound defensively in 2010 while maintaining an OPS around .700, he'll be a solid signing. If he repeats his 2009 season then he'll be a downgrade. Expecting him to rebound to being a +12 to +15 defender again is unrealistic, but if he can get back in the +5 range he would be a nice addition.
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