ESPN futures rankings

[oregonred]

The next TV contract is critical. Hoping for a blockbuster deal and a sprinkling of magic fairy dust and unicorn soup.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

As was pointed out to me earlier, it isn't 21st out of 30. It's 21 out of a possible 30 points. That's actually their best grade if I understand correctly.

oops, My bad.

ESPN is still garbage though.

[RedEye]

oops, My bad.

ESPN is still garbage though.

No worries. ESPN generally is garbage, just not in the specific case you were citing.

[klw]

I believe the Reds "Fast Fading Franchise" status in the futures rankings is discussed here:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...r-rankings-mlb

But it is an insider piece and I can't read it past the introduction.

However, these rankings aren't etched in stone -- they change over time, and there are still plenty of opportunities for the franchises that have struggled the most in 2013 to rewrite the narrative for the next five years. Here's a look at the teams with the biggest drop-offs, according to the FPR scoring system, and a remedy for how they can get back on course.

[REDREAD]

I can kind of see how the Reds are getting dinged a little bit for the short term future.

Choo and Arroyo possibly departing as FAs is going to hurt. The young talent we do have is going to be expensive soon.

But 17th out of 30 in the next 5 years? That's kind of absurd.

[Old school 1983]

I generally don't put much faith in future rankings. Who knows what kind of deals will be made, what prospects will step up or crash and burn, what injuries will occur, and who will be drafted for the next five years. Anything could be the case.

[Ghosts of 1990]

This means absolutely nothing. A couple of drafts and a couple of trades for prospects and Walt will have the minors reloaded.

The concept that Walt J. makes moves and is a swindler is really misconceived.

[RedEye]

The concept that Walt J. makes moves and is a swindler is really misconceived.

A swindler?

[OGB]

Is this the same Cubs' team that thought it was a good idea to lock up Starlin Castro to a big contract? I'm just not seeing it.

Oh, no doubt Theo will have the organization improved; and the cupboard is a lot less bare than it was when he arrived. That said, I simply don't see the love for that organization. It's still got a ton of holes now and in the immediate future.

The thing about prospects is that they realistically have no value outside of trade chips until they get on the field and produce. Two years ago, many would have had you believe Rizzo/Castro were destined to be an elite middle of the lineup tandem for a decade. Look at them now. Sure Rizzo's only 24, and he has a fairly low Babip, but the .230 BA and slightly increased K rate indicate pitchers have adjusted some.

Either way, any team whose futures projection is based largely on what's not already on their roster seems shortsighted to me.

[*BaseClogger*]

The thing about prospects is that they realistically have no value outside of trade chips until they get on the field and produce. Two years ago, many would have had you believe Rizzo/Castro were destined to be an elite middle of the lineup tandem for a decade. Look at them now. Sure Rizzo's only 24, and he has a fairly low Babip, but the .230 BA and slightly increased K rate indicate pitchers have adjusted some.

Either way, any team whose futures projection is based largely on what's not already on their roster seems shortsighted to me.

I'd be a lot more concerned about Castro than Rizzo...

[bucksfan2]

I can kind of see how the Reds are getting dinged a little bit for the short term future.

Choo and Arroyo possibly departing as FAs is going to hurt. The young talent we do have is going to be expensive soon.

But 17th out of 30 in the next 5 years? That's kind of absurd.

I have never really put much credence to list like these. Add to it Jim Bowden is involved and it loses all credibility.

The first thing is we don't know where the payroll is going. What will the next TV contract do to payroll. If you told me 5 years ago that the Reds would have a $100M payroll I would have thought you were crazy. Right now it wouldn't shock me if the payroll was north of $120M in 5 years.

You bring up an interesting point with Choo and Arroyo. I think the Reds will be able to replace Arroyo pretty easily. You won't replace the innings but the combination of Cueto and Cingrani will allow the Reds to maintain its good pitching even if Arroyo walks. If Choo walks then the offense will take a hit but we don't know what kind of player Hamilton will become. But with those two players you are going to get two high draft picks in return. Combine that with a competitive balance pick and the Reds may have 5 picks in within the first 80 or so of the MLB draft next season. You can really rebuild an organization that way. To me these rankings are too much of a snapshot that will change drastically within 6 months.

[OGB]

I'd be a lot more concerned about Castro than Rizzo...

Sure, my point is just that there's a big difference in comparing the future value of a known commodity like Votto or Bruce vs. a young unproven player, let alone a minor leaguer who may never even make the show.
For example, between Hamilton, Ervin, Winker, YRod, Arias, and Waldrop, if you get one future AllStar, one future solid starter, and two future solid bench players, you're probably doing pretty well.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I have never really put much credence to list like these. Add to it Jim Bowden is involved and it loses all credibility.

Amen to that.

[kaldaniels]

Preface - Teams can turn it around quickly.

But I've said it for a year now...the Brewers are in as bad of shape as any team in baseball going forwards.

[kaldaniels]

I will say this. I can fathom 3 years from now the Reds not having Latos, Bailey, Leake, or Cueto.

That is a valid concern if you ask me.