Winter Ball '09-'10.

[mth123]

I suppose your right in that Dusty will see to it that Stubbs is in that lineup but in my hypothetical he wouldn't be. Dickerson would be in CF and a better bat would be in LF and I certainly understand why you would want a power LH bat out there but I'd still prefer better defense than what Juan is likely to bring out there. Keep the game close with pitching and defense and use Nix against particularly tough RHP and Heisey vs. the rest. JF and the like are better off used late in games as a PH, although I wouldn't mind seeing Dorn but I'm sure we'll never get to.

Again, this presumes JF can slug .500 as Doug suggested. If so, his power and the effect it has on the rest of the line-up will far out-produce the loss of defense. This team needs a power bat to protect Bruce IMO. We saw what happens last year when Bruce is trying to win games by himself with no one behind him. If JF can slug .500 it may fill the bill. I'm not sold that he really can, but that is the assumption here and I do believe he is more likely to do it than any in house candidate.

IMO, when a team has as many plus defenders playing next to each other as a Janish, Rolen, Dickerson, Stubbs group would have, those individual plus numbers that UZR or WAR indicate cannibalize each other. Many of those bloopers that Dickerson may get may have been necessary with EdE and Keppinger out there, but Rolen and Janish will catch many of them anyway making the reduced range in LF a lesser loss than the numbers may show. Similarly, Stubbs is going to get balls in the gap that previous CF like Griffey, Hairston, Freel, Hamilton and Bruce couldn't reach. Even Taveras speed is offset by his poor reads and is less capable of covering the gaps than Stubbs. A Neutral defender is really all that is needed IMO and the real loss in terms of outs is probably a lot less that the UZR scores of Dickerson versus another player may indicate. Somebody else is going to make many of those "plus" plays anyway.

As for Dickerson vs. Stubbs against RHP, I agree 100% that CD would be the starter in CF, but it won't happen IMO. This team needs a player who feast on RH Pitching. Phillips, Rolen, the catchers, Janish, Heisey and even Rosales hit lefties significantly better. Stubbs hasn't had big platoon splits, but Dickerson does and it would be enough for me to give him the nod ahead of Stubbs against RHP.

[dougdirt]

This team needs a player who feast on RH Pitching.

Joey Votto and Jay Bruce both beat up on RHP pretty well. Bruce had an .825 OPS against righties last year despite a .201 BABIP against them. If he gets normalized and has a .300 BABIP and his only hit pickups are singles, that puts him at a .965 OPS, and again that is if he only picked up singles to up his BABIP to .300 from where it was last year. If his 2B and Hr rate stayed the same per hit, we are talking about a 1.082 OPS.

[Mario-Rijo]

Joey Votto and Jay Bruce both beat up on RHP pretty well. Bruce had an .825 OPS against righties last year despite a .201 BABIP against them. If he gets normalized and has a .300 BABIP and his only hit pickups are singles, that puts him at a .965 OPS, and again that is if he only picked up singles to up his BABIP to .300 from where it was last year. If his 2B and Hr rate stayed the same per hit, we are talking about a 1.082 OPS.

I believe he means in addition to those guys or more specifically as an insurance bat to continue to allow Bruce to get pitched to assuming he does what some of us expect him to do.

[mth123]

Joey Votto and Jay Bruce both beat up on RHP pretty well. Bruce had an .825 OPS against righties last year despite a .201 BABIP against them. If he gets normalized and has a .300 BABIP and his only hit pickups are singles, that puts him at a .965 OPS, and again that is if he only picked up singles to up his BABIP to .300 from where it was last year. If his 2B and Hr rate stayed the same per hit, we are talking about a 1.082 OPS.

Agree, but its two guys and seven who flounder. Even Ruth and Gehrig had Earle Combs, Bob Meusel and Tony Lazzeri. Against RHP, this team is a lot of mediocrity. Phillips and Rolen just aren't enough in the middle of the order against RHP. Frankly, I'm not convinced that Bruce will stay out of his funk with no one behind him. Last year he spent a lot of the year chasing pitches he can't handle, trying to hit them out of the park and the resulting lazy fly balls were a big reason for that BABIP. The team needs some one to take the pressure off (I'm not convinced its Francisco). Rolen has the pedigree, but post shoulder rebuild, he just doesn't have the skill anymore. Phillips is a mediocrity against RHP and no one else even comes close.

[dougdirt]

Agree, but its two guys and seven who flounder. Even Ruth and Gehrig had Earle Combs, Bob Meusel and Tony Lazzeri. Against RHP, this team is a lot of mediocrity. Phillips and Rolen just aren't enough in the middle of the order against RHP. Frankly, I'm not convinced that Bruce will stay out of his funk with no one behind him. Last year he spent a lot of the year chasing pitches he can't handle, trying to hit them out of the park and the resulting lazy fly balls were a big reason for that BABIP. The team needs some one to take the pressure off (I'm not convinced its Francisco). Rolen has the pedigree, but post shoulder rebuild, he just doesn't have the skill anymore. Phillips is a mediocrity against RHP and no one else even comes close.

Jays xBABIP was still at .280 despite those fly balls.

[mth123]

Jays xBABIP was still at .280 despite those fly balls.

I hope Jay does as you say and that he and Votto make life miserable for the NL Right Handers. I just think the rest of the order is devoid of any help against RH. Dickerson would be ok in the lead-off spot (I'm less confident of Stubbs) and Rolen can contribute by getting on base a little, the rest aren't so hot.

[Mario-Rijo]

I hope Jay does as you say and that he and Votto make life miserable for the NL Right Handers. I just think the rest of the order is devoid of any help against RH. Dickerson would be ok in the lead-off spot (I'm less confident of Bruce) and Rolen can contribute by getting on base a little, the rest aren't so hot.

I think Heisey will contribute nicely vs. LH or RH's and of course I have more confidence in the catchers to hold their own than most. As I see it BP is the one guy who needs to really be continuing to evolve and improve in that area but I admit BP is a fair issue in that regard. Of course Stubbs as well but I am expecting the kid to fall out of the lineup by June anyway and then we will get Willy back, here's to him finding lots of luck this season.

[HokieRed]

Agree with mth that we need us another good left handed bat. I'm looking, however, for that to be Alonso. I think this problem will seem a thing of the past by July. Hoping anyway.

[mth123]

I think Heisey will contribute nicely vs. LH or RH's and of course I have more confidence in the catchers to hold their own than most. As I see it BP is the one guy who needs to really be continuing to evolve and improve in that area but I admit BP is a fair issue in that regard. Of course Stubbs as well but I am expecting the kid to fall out of the lineup by June anyway and then we will get Willy back, here's to him finding lots of luck this season.

Heisey minor league career splits:

VS LH .344/.419/.510/.929
VS RH .286/.356/.445/.801

Not sure he'll be the threat this team needs vs. RH

in 2009:

vs LH .362/.454/.567/1.021
vs RH .305/.364/.510/.874

unless he's the elite guy that 2009 suggests.

I guess I'm skeptical.

[flash]

My own feeling is that Dickerson is much better in center than Stubbs. Somesay he is injury prone, but don't forget. He separated his sholder making a awesome catch. Dickerson does not get good reads on the ball in left, plus he is a left-handed fielder which makes left feld awkward for him. Stubbs would be better in left simply because of the throwing mechanics. Batting Stubbs and Dickerson 1 and 2 should sent up some hit and run scenarios also. Agree on Taveras. asde from speed he is the worst outfielder the Reds have.

[Will M]

to me the 2010 LF situation is this:

Walt has some players with major league experience that can be useful bench players. these include Nix, Balentien & Dickerson. a platoon of two of these guys is the fallback option if Francisco, Heisey & Frazier all need more time in AAA. however the opportunity will be there for one of these guys to win the job this spring.

i actually like this strategy. no reason to spend big bucks on LF when we have so many guys near ready. nor do i want there to be no fallback option if they all need more seasoning. if it turns out that Francisco/Heisey/Frazier need time in AAA then a platoon of the 'scrubs' could at least give us an OPS+ of 100-110 until one of the kids is ready.

[corkedbat]

I'm guesing there's a chance you see an OF of

LF Heisey
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce

Dickerson as the 4th OF getting starts in both left and center against some RHers
Balentein as the 5th OF giving Bruce and occaisional rest

Franciso might have a world of power potential, but I think Heisey may end up being more consistant and making up for less power with more doubles, triples, walks and a higher OBP (as well as superior defense). I'd rather see Franciisco start the season in AAA and prove himself in LF.

I'd expect Frazier to start the year at Louisville, but it wouldn't shock me to see him as a super utility guy off the bench. I'd have Nix at Louisville as injury depth, but I'd rather see the roster spots and ABs go to the young kids. If Dorn were to start out hot, I might even give hi the nod for a callup over Nix.

I didn't include my thoughts about Taveras, because I try not to.

[mth123]

I'm guesing there's a chance you see an OF of

LF Heisey
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce

Dickerson as the 4th OF getting starts in both left and center against some RHers
Balentein as the 5th OF giving Bruce and occaisional rest

Franciso might have a world of power potential, but I think Heisey may end up being more consistant and making up for less power with more doubles, triples, walks and a higher OBP (as well as superior defense). I'd rather see Franciisco start the season in AAA and prove himself in LF.

I'd expect Frazier to start the year at Louisville, but it wouldn't shock me to see him as a super utility guy off the bench. I'd have Nix at Louisville as injury depth, but I'd rather see the roster spots and ABs go to the young kids. If Dorn were to start out hot, I might even give hi the nod for a callup over Nix.

I didn't include my thoughts about Taveras, because I try not to.

Still nobody to hit 5th against RHP in that scenario. The splits that Rolen and Phillips have really make it imperitive that the team can add another power bat against RHP and none of the in house candidates except for Francisco or Alonso have the potential. As I said the team is out of balance and the guys who can do it don't fit positionally, aren't yet ready and at least one has long odds against him successfully making the leap.

I like all the players you mention, but none will provide this team as currently constructed what it needs to win. Its the result of the team dealing off Dunn and Griffey and spending those resources on Taveras and Rolen instead of addressing the lost sock in the middle of the order.

[corkedbat]

Still nobody to hit 5th against RHP in that scenario. The splits that Rolen and Phillips have really make it imperitive that the team can add another power bat against RHP and none of the in house candidates except for Francisco or Alonso have the potential. As I said the team is out of balance and the guys who can do it don't fit positionally, aren't yet ready and at least one has long odds against him successfully making the leap.

I like all the players you mention, but none will provide this team as currently constructed what it needs to win. Its the result of the team dealing off Dunn and Griffey and spending those resources on Taveras and Rolen instead of addressing the lost sock in the middle of the order.

Any discussion of line up contruction that must factor in the pretzel that is Dusty's baseball brain.

1) That means that you have to think an OF (probably either Heisey or Stubbs) in the leadoff spot

2) MI here (if only SS in the two-hole were a Redszone myth/exaggeration). I'd bat Heisey here after Stubbs (given my projected lineup) or maybe better yet Phillips after Heisey. Since Dusty's brain is in the equation, Janish is most likely the man (Brandon Hits cleanup). Walt acquiring a young SS who can get on base would make things much tidier here.

3) Votto.

4) Phiilips

5 & 6) Dusty does like a L/R/L/R or R/L/R/L staggering his middle order batters depending on whether a LH or RH pitcher is starting. That would mean Rolen in the fifth hole and Bruce sixth vs. LHers and reversed vs. RHers. Rolen's "Veteranocity" may lend Dusty to bat him 5th and Bruce 6th full time.

7 & 8) Depends on whether an OF or SS is batting 2nd and who's catching. If an OF happens to hit 2nd, Catcher his 7th & SS hits 8th. If Janish hits 2nd, OF hits 7th & C hits 8th.

I really don't see Francisco, Alonso or Votto for that matter as options to start the year. I do think Jocketty has shown a "defense counts" determination and beleives that holds in LF (might also somewhat explain the Marlon Byrd flirtation).

I think Francisco will have to prove himself defensively in LF at Lousiville for a month or two before they send him out there full time for the Reds (could well be wrong). Offensively, I'm not a huge Heisey fanboy, but I think his OBP, consistency and defense make him a better fit to start in LF (at least initially). I went into my thoughts on JF in depth on an ORG thread.

Walt could stir the pot with an acquisition in LF or SS, but as it now stands, this would be my guess.

[Kc61]

I'm guesing there's a chance you see an OF of

LF Heisey
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce

Dickerson as the 4th OF getting starts in both left and center against some RHers
Balentein as the 5th OF giving Bruce and occaisional rest

.

Heisey did great at AA but his AAA OPS was below .800 last season. Why would the Reds think him ready to be the starting left fielder in the NL?

I think Heisey needs some AAA success before he plays with the Reds, but at best now he is a reserve outfielder out of spring training. Why would the Reds think differently?

Once he has some success at AAA and as a major league reserve, then I could see him as the LF. But now, hard for me to see it.