Taveras-City folks just don't get it

[NeilHamburger]

I really think some of you are missing it on Taveras. He is not Patterson #2. So far in his career he's had one really bad year and that was last year, a year in which he was very unhappy in his situation, didn't get along with the manager and asked to be traded. Before that he played 3 full seasons in the majors, is only 27 in December and should rebound from last season to at least his average season.

This board would love it if the Reds signed Furcal, well, here is some food for thought:

Furcal:

Season 07: Average .270 OBP .333 SB 25
Season 06: Average .300 OBP .369 SB 37
Season 05: Average .284 OBP .348 SB 46

Average OBP for the three: around .350 (I did it in my head so it's not exact)

Taveras:

Season 07: Average .320 OBP .367 SB 33
Season 06: Average .278 OBP .333 SB 33
Season 05: Average .291 OBP .325 SB 34

Average OBP for the three: around .341 (again not exact)


Patterson:

Season 07: Average .269 OBP .304
Season 06: Average .276 OBP .314
Season 05: Average .215 OBP .254

Average OBP for the three: around .283(again not exact)



My point is this, Taveras is not just another Patterson. Sure, he had one bad year, but in my opinion he is a low cost risk worth taking. In my opinion, in a new situation there is no reason for me to think that he won't at least rebound to his career norm, hell, at his age he should get a little better. There is a decent chance he'll give you close to Furcals production at a fraction of the cost.


Let me ask you guys this, if he gives you this line (which I believe he will) would you take it:

Average .280 OBP .345 SB 40

[schmidty622]

Yeah I'd take that from my leadoff hitter, as I could care less about his SLG%. I think Dickerson is the guy to go with for next year though.

[Emin3mShady07]

The biggest difference between Taveras and Furcal IMO is defense. Furcal is very much a defensive upgrade at SS and would probably gain the reds 25-35 runs depending on the type of season he has next year fielding. Taveras is an average defensive outfielder and adds no other benefit than his steals, which I believe that Furcal could come close to matching. I doubt Taveas steals 68 bases and only gets caught 7 times again, but he could. However, Taveras has consistently been around 75% when he steals and this year he was much more successful. Why? I am not sure. It could have been luck, it could have been situations with different pitchers or whatever. At any rate, I'm not going to bank on the fact that Taveras does something like that again. Also, Furcal is a much better hitter. His OPS is around .750+ minus his one bad year in '07. Taveras has never topped .750 in the OPS category and the one year he did, he was very lucky. His one good year, '07, was driven up by an extremely high BABIP. Taveras had a .370 BABIP with only a 16.9% LD percentage. His BABIP should have been roughly .290 which would have put his numbers in line with what he produced this year and '06. Now the one thing that BABIP doesn't plan for is speed so obviously Taveras could have beaten out some grounders in the hole or whatever, but I still see no way in which that could account for the huge discrepancy between the LD percentage and the BABIP.

To your posed question: the most important thing is how many times he is caught stealing. If he is caught 15 times than his steals don't even make an impact, not to mention I think that Chris dickerson could put up those numbers and we would not have to deal for Taveras. Plus I feel your stats are pretty optimistic for Tavers

[757690]

If you throw away the stats and watch Taveras and Furcal play, you will notice a big difference. Furcal can smoke the ball, Taveras is a slap hitter who gets most of his hits by pounding the ball into the ground and using his speed. That is probably one reason why his numbers dropped last year, teams were better prepared defensively for him. His offense is very one dimensional.

I agree that Taveras is not as bad as most people make him out to be, but really is just a faster Norris Hopper. He wouldn't be a horrible acquisition, but not worth giving up any talent from the Reds.

[NeilHamburger]

The biggest difference between Taveras and Furcal IMO is defense. Furcal is very much a defensive upgrade at SS and would probably gain the reds 25-35 runs depending on the type of season he has next year fielding. Taveras is an average defensive outfielder and adds no other benefit than his steals, which I believe that Furcal could come close to matching. I doubt Taveas steals 68 bases and only gets caught 7 times again, but he could. However, Taveras has consistently been around 75% when he steals and this year he was much more successful. Why? I am not sure. It could have been luck, it could have been situations with different pitchers or whatever. At any rate, I'm not going to bank on the fact that Taveras does something like that again. Also, Furcal is a much better hitter. His OPS is around .750+ minus his one bad year in '07. Taveras has never topped .750 in the OPS category and the one year he did, he was very lucky. His one good year, '07, was driven up by an extremely high BABIP. Taveras had a .370 BABIP with only a 16.9% LD percentage. His BABIP should have been roughly .290 which would have put his numbers in line with what he produced this year and '06. Now the one thing that BABIP doesn't plan for is speed so obviously Taveras could have beaten out some grounders in the hole or whatever, but I still see no way in which that could account for the huge discrepancy between the LD percentage and the BABIP.

To your posed question: the most important thing is how many times he is caught stealing. If he is caught 15 times than his steals don't even make an impact, not to mention I think that Chris dickerson could put up those numbers and we would not have to deal for Taveras. Plus I feel your stats are pretty optimistic for Tavers

I don't think the average or SB's are optomistic, as they are pretty much what he always gets. Maybe the OBP, but I really don't think it's by much, hell, even if you factor in his horrible 08 he still has a career OBP of .331. I don't think it's far fetched to think that he'll have an OBP of .340, especially in a good hitters park when he really should just be entering his prime. I'm not saying it's not a risk, but the reds aren't going to pay 13 million for Furcal, and basically what I'm saying is that he isn't Patterson 2.

I just know if they trade for him though everyone is going to say "OMG, we just got another Patterson!", when it really isn't true. If he just goes to his career norms he isn't that bad, he's not great, but it wouldn't be horrible.

[UK Reds Fan]

You think a guy with a declining OBP heading south of .333 is a good idea at leadoff?

I just don't get why just staying put with Dickerson/Free combo in CF is such a bad idea if Taveras is your best alternative. Those 2 are already in house, cost you no players to obtain, Dickerson is a very good glove and Dickerson has more power. I must be missing some reason why Taveras would upgrade our current roster.

[NeilHamburger]

You think a guy with a declining OBP heading south of .333 is a good idea at leadoff?

I just don't get why just staying put with Dickerson/Free combo in CF is such a bad idea if Taveras is your best alternative. Those 2 are already in house, cost you no players to obtain, Dickerson is a very good glove and Dickerson has more power. I must be missing some reason why Taveras would upgrade our current roster.

Actually, Taveras' OBP increased from 05 to 06 to 07, before he had a bad year last year. Dickerson had two good months, has had no history of hitting success in the minors, much less the majors, and Sept. is a deceiving month. Freel has shown no ability to stay healthy, and with his hamstring may not even be able to use speed anymore. Taveras is better then both.

[Emin3mShady07]

Actually, Taveras' OBP increased from 05 to 06 to 07, before he had a bad year last year. Dickerson had two good months, has had no history of hitting success in the minors, much less the majors, and Sept. is a deceiving month. Freel has shown no ability to stay healthy, and with his hamstring may not even be able to use speed anymore. Taveras is better then both.

Well, from 05 to 06 his OBP went up from .325 to .333, which is still really bad. His OBP increased in 07 to .367, but that was more due to Taveras's high/lucky BABIP than an actual increase in skill, not to mention he had 150 less PA in 07 than his average season, making the luck have more of an effect on his numbers, in this case a positive effect. Taveras set a career high in LD% in 08 and was actually unlucky this year in regards to BABIP, but even readjusting the numbers, his OBP would still be in the mid .320s, which is god awful.

And I don't understand the comment about hitting success in the minors.
Dickerson has a career minor league line of .260/.363/.415 .778 OPS
Taveras has a career minor league line of .288/.370/.361 .731 OPS
Not to mention that Dickerson also posted an .863 OPS his last season at AAA and taveras has never had stats even close to that.

When Freel is healthy, he is easily capable of matching Taveras's production, but you are right, it seems that he is never healthy. But anyways, I would rather take my chances with Freel and Dickerson because I think they are both better options than Taveras plus the reds do not have to give up anything to get Dickerson or Freel.

[redsfandan]

dickerson probably won't be quite as productive as he was last year (especially the power) but i wouldn't expect him to fall off a cliff either and he'll still have some power. any power is more than what taveras provides. dickerson is DEFINITELY the better defender of the two and would cost less as far as both money and a prospect that colorado would want. taveras isn't a bad leadoff hitter but we should be ok in center and more importantly we need an outfielder that would give MORE power to the lineup, not less.

[OUReds]

As Emin pointed out, Taveraz's 2007 OBP was based on a BABIP of over .370, not something that is likely to ever happen again. Heck, even his 2006 and 2005 were BABIP-lucky. (source)

Last year's production wasn't a bad year, it is what you can expect from Taveraz with average luck. Since he has no plate discipline or power, BABIP is unfortunately the sum total of his offensive value. One of these years he is going to have a BABIP-unlucky year. I do not want to be the team wasting ABs on him when that happens.

[kpresidente]

As Emin pointed out, Taveraz's 2007 OBP was based on a BABIP of over .370, not something that is likely to ever happen again. Heck, even his 2006 and 2005 were BABIP-lucky. (source)

Based on that, Hopper is a perfect comparison to Tavares. Hopper had the same deal in 2007, with a .367 BABiP and a .371 OBP. Even then, Hopper's a better fit for us in a platoon because he had a .406 OBP against LH, whereas Taveras has virtually no split. That's not an endorsement of Hopper, it's a knock on Taveras. Freel is better than both with a career .354 OBP and a normal BABiP, although he's probably somewhat of a defensive liability in CF.

With Hairston not looking like he's coming back, Walt is right to be on the lookout for a RH CF, but why get one who's no better than what you have?