Power Rankings-Reds at #16

[cincrazy]

So I was at sportsline.com and I clicked on the baseball power rankings link, and immediately scrolled to the bottom to see how low the writer had the Reds. To my surprise, he had them right near the middle of the pack at 16. It seems to me that the national media tends to think much more highly of the Reds chances this year than the fanbase.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/11386278

Reds
Chris Dickerson ain't great, but he's a far better player in most ways that matter than Willy Tavarez, the guy he'll back up. ... When was the last time the Reds had a front four as strong as Harang/Volquez/Arroyo/Cueto? 1976? ... Utility wisp Jerry Hairston projects as the prime-time guy in left. Insert could've-used-Abreu-or-Dunn blurb here. ... I own Edinson Volquez in like 31 Fantasy leagues. The idea that his baseball adolescence will be managed by a certified arm-shredder like Dusty Baker makes my teeth hurt.

[BRM]

They have them pegged as the 4th best team in the NL Central. That's right about where RedsZone seems to have them.

[LincolnparkRed]

Weird that most of baseball knows that Willy and CPat are terrible but maybe next year Walt will get us Juan Pierre.

[redsmetz]

So besides Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, who else's arms has Dusty notoriously shred?

[cincrazy]

So besides Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, who else's arms has Dusty notoriously shred?

Seriously. Not to mention that Wood had major arm issues before Dusty ever showed up, and Mark Prior was a ticking time bomb. Sure, Dusty helped detonate it a little quicker. But it was coming nonetheless.

[WMR]

He did a good job 'shredding' Harang's arm last season.

Left Volquez in too long a few times in pursuit of the magical win number twenty.

[jesusfan]

Call me crazy... But I think Willy will surprise a lot of people this season. IF he were to raise his OBP to what it was 2 years ago it would increase our scoring output tremendously, adding the fact that a walk or a single is a double with WIlly...

[WMR]

Call me crazy... But I think Willy will surprise a lot of people this season. IF he were to raise his OBP to what it was 2 years ago it would increase our scoring output tremendously, adding the fact that a walk or a single is a double with WIlly...

You're crazy.

[redsmetz]

He did a good job 'shredding' Harang's arm last season.

Left Volquez in too long a few times in pursuit of the magical win number twenty.

I don't think either seem to have had their arm shredded. I agree that some of Harang's problem last year probably was that ill-advised relief appearance (and its length), but I think the commentator is tossing about the usual Dusty urban legend. Dusty has his warts, but when you scratch down a bit, the rap against him doesn't seem to have much basis in fact (shredding arms, vet love, etc.)

And then you've got Nolan Ryan saying his pitchers needed to go more innings.

[Always Red]

I don't think either seem to have had their arm shredded. I agree that some of Harang's problem last year probably was that ill-advised relief appearance (and its length), but I think the commentator is tossing about the usual Dusty urban legend. Dusty has his warts, but when you scratch down a bit, the rap against him doesn't seem to have much basis in fact (shredding arms, vet love, etc.)

And then you've got Nolan Ryan saying his pitchers needed to go more innings.

I love Nolan Ryan; build up those arms and that endurance!

Seriously, what we need is to find some scientific comparison between the injuries suffered by a 4 man staff and those suffered by a 5 man staff, and compare. Are there more pitching injuries now? Or just more sensitive diagnosis? Or were there more injuries then? I don't think anyone really knows!

[*BaseClogger*]

I love Nolan Ryan; build up those arms and that endurance!

Seriously, what we need is to find some scientific comparison between the injuries suffered by a 4 man staff and those suffered by a 5 man staff, and compare. Are there more pitching injuries now? Or just more sensitive diagnosis? Or were there more injuries then? I don't think anyone really knows!

Chapter 2-3 on page 74 in Baseball Between the Numbers had some interesting stuff to offer. Basically, they concluded that pitchers get hurt when they pitch while they are tired, but that it only requires three off days to regain stamina. They suggested the return of the four man rotation but a more careful discretion of when to take pitchers out. This would be at least as safe for the starting pitchers while improving the productivity of the roster...

[Emin3mShady07]

Chapter 2-3 on page 74 in Baseball Between the Numbers had some interesting stuff to offer. Basically, they concluded that pitchers get hurt when they pitch while they are tired, but that it only requires three off days to regain stamina. They suggested the return of the four man rotation but a more careful discretion of when to take pitchers out. This would be at least as safe for the starting pitchers while improving the productivity of the roster...

Eh, there are still conflicting reports on stuff like that, I think The book concluded that pitchers pitched best with 5 days of rest (6 man rotation) so I personnally think it depends on the individual pitchers and the team more than anything else. Assuming you have a playoff caliber team, If you have 4 guys like Mark Buehlre, then a 4 man rotation might be a really good idea, he is not injury prone nor does he have any strange motion that puts extra stress on his arm, but if you had 4 flamethrowers like Josh Beckett, I think it would be a better idea to stick with the five man rotation. And if the team is not very good at all, what is the point of throwing pitchers more innings if you can avoid that? I mean if you were San Francisco last year, why would you want to run out Lincecum every 4 days instead of 5? I mean, either way that team was bad and had no shot at the playoffs.

[Always Red]

Eh, there are still conflicting reports on stuff like that, I think The book concluded that pitchers pitched best with 5 days of rest (6 man rotation) so I personnally think it depends on the individual pitchers and the team more than anything else. Assuming you have a playoff caliber team, If you have 4 guys like Mark Buehlre, then a 4 man rotation might be a really good idea, he is not injury prone nor does he have any strange motion that puts extra stress on his arm, but if you had 4 flamethrowers like Josh Beckett, I think it would be a better idea to stick with the five man rotation. And if the team is not very good at all, what is the point of throwing pitchers more innings if you can avoid that? I mean if you were San Francisco last year, why would you want to run out Lincecum every 4 days instead of 5? I mean, either way that team was bad and had no shot at the playoffs.

The Japanese use mostly a once a week format for their SP's and the entire league is off on Mondays, I believe. So they get 6 days of rest between starts. It would be interesting to compare injury rates between these 3 different philosophies (4, 5 and 6 man rotations); someone smarter and with more time on their hands than me is probably doing it already. The point is to have your best pitchers pitching the most innings, without causing injury or wearing them out. Pitchers are so different from each other, as you point out; this is where scouting your own team becomes very valuable.

[Heath]

You're crazy.

He's a Reds fan.

To quote Seal, You're never gonna survive. Unless you get a little crazy.

[bucksfan2]

Chapter 2-3 on page 74 in Baseball Between the Numbers had some interesting stuff to offer. Basically, they concluded that pitchers get hurt when they pitch while they are tired, but that it only requires three off days to regain stamina. They suggested the return of the four man rotation but a more careful discretion of when to take pitchers out. This would be at least as safe for the starting pitchers while improving the productivity of the roster...

What is tired? The only person who will be able to tell you when a pitcher is tired is the pitcher himself. We have seen all kinds of attempts to determine why a pitcher breaks down or doesn't. Pitch counts, inning counts, pitcher abuse points, etc. There would be few to believe that Arroyo has the ability to throw more often and more pitches than Volquez for example. I also find it quite ironic that many young pitchers are watched much more closely than the older pitchers. In every other sport the younger players are able to play harder and longer than the older players.