Sorry if this has been asked ad nauseum- isn't Leake a better comparison for Lively? Good control with a number of pitches, not overwhelming FB but in the 90's. And I am a huge Cinrani fan but I wouldn't say the book has been finished quite yet. He has had a great run so far but now with his 2nd and 3rd go around the league I hope his success doesn't trail off.Originally Posted by dougdirt
Reds just signed him again.
Timely!
Go BLUE!!!
I think Ben's fastball is plenty "lively" to succeed at the MLB level.
Has he taken a step back from last season as far as pure stuff? Lively was never a first tier arm, but it seemed like his stuff was pretty well regarded last season. Maybe I misinterpreted something, but I don't remember the "smoke-and-mirrors" talk surrounding him at all last year.
So far this year he is probably a MPH lower than he was last year. Not a big deal. Plus, it's May and guys peak a little later in the season. The stuff is solid, but it was never regarded as anything special. Well, except for guys who scout box scores.
Oh, and he is throwing 6-7 innings now instead of 2-3.
If Lorenzen has such a good fastball and his overall stuff is no nasty, why are his strikeout numbers so low? 37Ks in 51.2 IP:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=547179
I love his other numbers, just curious why his strikeout numbers are so low. I know they are a level apart, but Lively averages well over a strikeout per inning (even with his so-called pedestrian stuff).
World of difference between double A and high single A
If you can play in AA you are more or less MLB material. Pitchers in AA have ungodly breaking stuff "with iffy control" and fastballs in the mid 90's with run on them. Hitters at that level can hit bad breaking balls out of the yard and punish flat fastballs in the mid 90's. In single A maybe 1 out of 5 guys are like this.
I understand there is a big jump from high-A to double-A. My question is -- even for AA standards -- why is Lorenzen's K rate not very good if he has such nasty stuff? He now has 40Ks in 58.2 IP. Not terrible, not even bad. But not what one would expect from someone with "nasty" stuff. Usually nasty stuff translates into a K per inning or so. Lorenzen is nowhere near that.
That being said, I love his other numbers. What a nice pick he was last year in the supplemental round.
A guy can have nasty stuff that doesn't always translate into Ks but does translate into success. Look at career numbers of guys like Julio Teheran, our own Johnny Cueto, etc to see this effect...
True, true. I just think 40Ks in 58.2 IPs is a bit low for someone with nasty stuff. You are right though -- you can have nasty stuff and not rack up Ks. But usually if you have "nasty stuff" you are around a K per inning, especially in the minors.
I didn't mean for this to be a criticism of Lorenzen. I love his overall numbers and think he was a steal in the draft last year. I was just curious as to why people are touting his stuff as so nasty but his Ks don't really reflect that. Your examples of Johnny Cueto and Julio Teheran are good though. I say we hope Lorenzen becomes a cross of Cueto/Teheran and we roll with that.
You have to remember - this time last year Lorenzen was a college outfielder who pitched part time. This is the first time he has ever started games. I think right now he is throwing more than pitching, he is already putting up really good numbers outside of Ks, imagine what is possible once he learns how to pitch.True, true. I just think 40Ks in 58.2 IPs is a bit low for someone with nasty stuff. You are right though -- you can have nasty stuff and not rack up Ks. But usually if you have "nasty stuff" you are around a K per inning, especially in the minors.
I didn't mean for this to be a criticism of Lorenzen. I love his overall numbers and think he was a steal in the draft last year. I was just curious as to why people are touting his stuff as so nasty but his Ks don't really reflect that. Your examples of Johnny Cueto and Julio Teheran are good though. I say we hope Lorenzen becomes a cross of Cueto/Teheran and we roll with that.
Chuckie (05-27-2014)
Good point. Well said.
I voted Lively in the poll, but thought this might be of interest given the topic. A note from Baseball Prospetus today, in one of their regular articles where they quote scouts' observations on various players:
Pretty exciting note.Reds Double-A RHP Michael Lorenzen: "Lorenzen immediately jumps to the top prospect in the Reds system for me. The stuff was unreal, and I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone improve so much in one offseason. His 50 command will be his weakness, but he has really improved since last year. Elite athlete, too. Saw him hit one off the top of the wall and bunt for a hit. Didn't think he had a chance to stick in the rotation, but now I’m convinced."
BillDoran (05-30-2014),Chuckie (06-02-2014),Drugs Delaney (05-30-2014)
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