easier to add velocity. Get stronger, throw harder. Movement is a different skillset, and can be counter intuitive. Don't throw as hard, spin it more, grip it different.Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT
easier to add velocity. Get stronger, throw harder. Movement is a different skillset, and can be counter intuitive. Don't throw as hard, spin it more, grip it different.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Among those in the Florida State League with 15 starts or more, Santillan's ranks:
9th in BB/9
8th in K/ BB
15th in K%
13th in H/9
6th in WHiP
Among those in the Southern League with 10 or more starts:
t-14th in K%
10th in BB/9
9th in BB/K
He gave up more hits than IP in AA.
Overall, he threw 150 innings of 3.08 ERA ball with a WHiP of 1.23 and a BAA of .253.
According to MLB, Santillan has a 70 grade fastball, a changeup and a slider that flash plus and grade out at 55.
Santillan's 21.
He profiles as a MOR starter at this point.
BillDoran (11-26-2018)
I’m not telling anyone how they have to do it but you’ve gotta quantify the value on these guys somehow. When it comes to Tony he is a solid albeit unspectacular pitching prospect at this point. He’s had a whiff of AA. So if you can get better value in a trade for him you do it. Don’t cling to him cause we are the Reds and we need pitching!
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If you don’t mind what’s the number of pitchers who qualified?
M2 (11-26-2018)
Dunno. I stopped counting when I hit Santillan's name.
I understand. But putting a simple rank up without “out of” doesn’t do it justice especially in the mid to low minors (and just one league) with an arbitrary cutoff.
Griffey012 (11-27-2018)
Stephenson definitely makes the short list of those who could be cut. Maybe it is in spring training or maybe it is when a FA is added. I think Graterol goes first, but I can't argue much beyond that. Stephenson remains a mystery to me. He seems to have lost his FB at 25 without being hurt. He followed up his most successful AAA year with his worst ML showing. Can Johnson find a way to make him serviceable in the pen? Seems like a long shot, but until you need the roster spot, why not give it a shot.
M2 (11-26-2018)
And if they have anything like a productive winter, they should need that spot.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Florida State League - 38.
Southern League - 65.
kaldaniels (11-27-2018)
In your opinion why is Santillan “unspectacular?”
We have to quantify these things.
What would you say.....ya do here?
I sense you are trying to throw my “quantify” remark in my face, yet I’ll say this. I’m not gonna argue much about how good you think Tony is. He’s a back end Top-100 guy at best in my opinion. You may differ. That said, figure out what that’s worth and be willing to use him as an asset to gain more back in return if the opportunity presents itself.
That goes for everyone of course. If you can trade Senzel for Vlad Jr you do it. But that’s not gonna happen. With pitching prospects sometimes you can catch a team wanting to overpay a bit which is why Tony’s name keeps popping up as trade bait.
No, I’m simply trying to figure out why people are down on Santillan. Why do you think he’s a a back-end too 100 guy?
I am totally OK with trading Santillan. I am not saying I think he’s elite, great, solid, mediocre, or bad. I don’t pretend to know that much about him. I’m asking people who are confident in their analysis of him why they are.
What would you say.....ya do here?
Not down....realistic. At this point he profiles as a solid MOR prospect. He does have a 70 fb, so he could go ace on you but those odds are long. Nothing at all wrong with being a top notch MOR prospect. Same reason few analysts will give "ace" labels to even better prospects than Santillan. Gutirrez could be even better IF he can figure out that maddening fluctuation in velocity from start to start.
99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...
I'll bet if Vlad moved to the pen, the riddle of his fluctuating velocity would be solved.
Last edited by M2; 11-27-2018 at 08:59 PM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Most posters seem to agree on what Santillan profiles to be-- a back-end top 100, MOR SP prospect.
No one, as far as I've read, is saying he's anything better than that.
It's hard to be "overrated" if pretty much everyone's on the same page. (Unless, of course, you're the one or two who insist he's really not a MOR/ back-end top 100 prospect.
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I suspect that'll happen at the major league level.
Consensus is his ceiling is MOR. How close he ever gets to it is a matter of conjecture. My take is the Reds need to trade some bodies to get some bodies and he's likely at his prospect apex (where we pretend his ceiling is an easy projection). My bet would be he's worth more as a chip than as a keeper.
That's kind of chicken and egg. Does he get to the majors if he's not a reliever? I suppose he might if the Reds trot out their standard calamity rotation, but if they address it, then he's a minor league SP with frustrating results.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
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