Qualifying Offers Thread

[REDREAD]

This is about what I think he'll get given that the team signing doesn't have to forfeit signing bonus money. I'm not sure he would have received half of that if a team had to mortgage its future to sign him.

Is that an exaggeration? You think the draft pick compensation would half Bronson's total contract? I disagree with that.
It's an interesting discusion though. How much does the draft compensation "cost" a FA.. My guess is that it's somewhere between 1-3 million total, tops. Would be interested to see what others think though.

[REDREAD]

Nelson Cruz was vastly underrated as a minor leaguer, and he's about to become vastly overrated as a first time free agent who will be 34 for much of next season. I don't care how scarce right handed power is. Who in their right mind wants to pay $14 million plus guaranteed per year for a guy who makes a ton of outs in the batters box and has poor mobility in the OF?

I agree. There's also the steriod cloud hanging over him.
How much of that power disappears next year, if he becomes clean?

[OneManBand]

MLBTradeRumors:

The 13 free agents who received qualifying offers a week ago have declined, according to the MLBPA's official Twitter feed. In the two years since the new collective bargaining agreement was put in place, no free agent has accepted a one-year qualifying offer, this season valued at $14.1MM. Though some of the free agents may not find that high an average annual value in their next contracts, it was widely expected that the 13 players would turn down the offers in search of longer-term deals.

The 13 players and their former teams are listed below...

Carlos Beltran, Cardinals
Robinson Cano, Yankees
Shin-Soo Choo, Reds
Nelson Cruz, Rangers
Stephen Drew, Red Sox
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
Curtis Granderson, Yankees
Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees
Brian McCann, Braves
Kendrys Morales, Mariners
Mike Napoli, Red Sox
Ervin Santana, Royals

If a qualifying offer free agent signs elsewhere, the player's former team will receive a compensatory draft pick between the first and second rounds of the 2014 amateur draft. A team that signs a qualifying offer free agent will forfeit its first round pick, though the teams with the 10 worst records in baseball last year (the Astros, Marlins, Cubs, White Sox, Twins, Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, Blue Jays and Mets) have protected first-rounders and would only have to give up a second-round pick for signing a Q.O. free agent.

[cincinnati chili]

He'd be a big upgrade in the Reds lineup, and he'd enable Walt to move Joey to the 2nd spot in the lineup. I'm really ok with giving him 2-28 with a option for the third year.

Not me. I do agree that he's an upgrade over what we have, but think there' are better ways to spend that money.

And don't forget, if we sign him, we forfeit our first round draft pick and all the bonus money slotted to go with it.

[PuffyPig]

Is that an exaggeration? You think the draft pick compensation would half Bronson's total contract? I disagree with that.
It's an interesting discusion though. How much does the draft compensation "cost" a FA.. My guess is that it's somewhere between 1-3 million total, tops. Would be interested to see what others think though.

I don't think that draft compensation affects the amount of money a FA gets (assuming he gets signed), thought it might mean he gets zero offers.

Arroyo would have undoubtedly accepted the Reds qualifying offer. $14.1M was simply too much to turn down considering he would have liked to stay. Plus, he wasn't sure what, if any, offers he might get.

[Sea Ray]

MLBTradeRumors:

Looks like Boston will get a windfall of draftpicks

[RedlegJake]

I don't think that draft compensation affects the amount of money a FA gets (assuming he gets signed), thought it might mean he gets zero offers.

Arroyo would have undoubtedly accepted the Reds qualifying offer. $14.1M was simply too much to turn down considering he would have liked to stay. Plus, he wasn't sure what, if any, offers he might get.

Yeah, I was wrong about Bronson turning down a QO. He says in an interview that he probably would have accepted had a QO been made. BA at 14.1 mill? No thanks. They made the right call.

[REDREAD]

Yeah, I was wrong about Bronson turning down a QO. He says in an interview that he probably would have accepted had a QO been made. BA at 14.1 mill? No thanks. They made the right call.

Yea, I also assumed based on BA's earlier comments that he wouldn't take a QO.
I'm kind of glad Walt is more in tune with things than I am

The Reds are actually in a position now to let Bronson shop himself and determine his market value. If Bronson's market value is as low as some people think it is, maybe the Reds match the market offer and can trade Homer..

[oneupper]

Yeah, I was wrong about Bronson turning down a QO. He says in an interview that he probably would have accepted had a QO been made. BA at 14.1 mill? No thanks. They made the right call.

Regardless of what Bronson was going to ultimately do, saying that he would take a QO was the right thing to SAY (for him). It wasn't in BA's best interest for the REDS to put a QO on the table.

[PuffyPig]

Regardless of what Bronson was going to ultimately do, saying that he would take a QO was the right thing to SAY (for him). It wasn't in BA's best interest for the REDS to put a QO on the table.

Agreed.

But intuitively it makes sense for him to take the $14.1M QO, as it would likely be his best (and perhapsonly) offer he might get.

Lohse was a better pitcher than Arroyo, and he almost went unsigned until some Brewer injuries made them jump the gun. IIRC, there is some time (middle of May?) where even players who were offered and rejected a QO will no longer be subject to compensation. So, Arroyo may have been a logical candidate to be the type of player who teams will wait until that times passes before he gets signed. Lohse came close, IMO.

[kaldaniels]

Regardless of what Bronson was going to ultimately do, saying that he would take a QO was the right thing to SAY (for him). It wasn't in BA's best interest for the REDS to put a QO on the table.

Before the QO period was over, sure. But after the fact, it has no bearing on things. I don't see why (and I don't know that you even are) anyone would not believe him when he says after the fact, he would have probably accepted the QO.

[MattyHo4Life]

I don't understand why anyone would think Bronson wouldn't accept the QO if there was one. Cincinnati is a great baseball town, and Arroyo has spent most of his career there. Why wouldn't he stay?

[AmarilloRed]

I don't understand why anyone would think Bronson wouldn't accept the QO if there was one. Cincinnati is a great baseball town, and Arroyo has spent most of his career there. Why wouldn't he stay?

Arroyo made it well known that he wanted a multiyear deal. For that reason, a lot of people felt there was no risk in offering him a QO.

[PuffyPig]

Arroyo made it well known that he wanted a multiyear deal. For that reason, a lot of people felt there was no risk in offering him a QO.

What people want and what they get can be two entirely different things.

Teams that sign free agents and give up their 1st round pick generally want to sign a player for many years (to justify the lost draft pick). But going with Arroyo for "many years" is exceptionally risky. Two years is about right, and not many teams want to give up a 1st round pick for an OK FA on a 2 year contract.

[cincinnati chili]

I don't think that draft compensation affects the amount of money a FA gets (assuming he gets signed), thought it might mean he gets zero offers.

I think we're saying the same thing. If only two teams are willing to bid on you instead of ten, it is likely to dramatically affect the money you get. I think it cost Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse tens of millions of dollars in guaranteed money last year. Bronson could have easily suffered the same fate if the Reds gave him a QO and he turned it down. I happen to not think he would have turned it down.