Well I was mostly just joking about that. But in seriousness, they don't start declining, at least on average, until 32. If I can find it, Tom Tango had a terrific chart several years ago that showed the production curve and from 28-32 it was basically steady, and then began the downward trend at that point.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.
Just read the Jayson Stark article on this trade. He quoted an unnamed GM as saying...
"It's three five-tool players. That's what you've got in one outfield."
BJ Upton is not a 5 tool player. Justin is closer, and Heyward... not so much. None of the three hit... for power yes, but aren't the five tools; hitting for average, hitting for power, baserunning skills and speed, throwing ability, and fielding abilities.
None really hit for average, Justin being the closest to that.
5 tool player is waaaaay over used.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Not including Francisco and his robust K every 2.74 AB's, this is what the heart of the Braves new order did last season:
AB - Total K - AB/K
Uggla
523 168 3.11
B Upton
573 169 3.39
Heyward
587 152 3.86
Freeman
540 129 4.19
J Upton
554 121 4.58
Averages for the 4 above
555.4 147.8 3.82
That's a whole bunch of swing and miss...
2010 Mock Draft Selections (picking for Rays)
Bryce Brentz
Brandon Workman
Kris Bryant
Matt Lipka
Rick Hague
Dear Arizona, it's not football
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/q...t-stove-012413
“The problem is that he didn’t play with a high level of energy,” said the former teammate, who spoke on the condition that he would not be identified. “What I think they want is guys who play with the speed, energy and intensity of the Oregon football team — all out, all the time.
“Justin doesn’t have that kind of attitude; he has a quiet intensity that doesn’t fit the mold of what KT and Gibby seem to want. He plays hard, but has to look suave doing it. Slamming into walls isn’t his thing, and they will accept nothing short of all-out sacrifice for the team.”
Evidently, it wasn’t enough when Upton hit 31 home runs and finished fourth in the 2011 voting for National League MVP. Evidently, it wasn’t enough that he played through a painful injury to his left thumb in the early part of last season, helping account for his drop in production.
No one questions Upton’s work ethic, but in the words of one rival executive, “he is not a leader, not an all-out hustle type.” Neither is his older brother and new teammate, center fielder B.J. Upton. Both Uptons are so talented, they can make the game look easy — too easy.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ir-strikeouts/
Basically, at the team level, there's no meaningful correlation between strikeouts and wOBA. And to the extent that striking out more hurts, improving your team baserunning helps your offense more than striking out more hurts.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
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