Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

[RedEye]

Ehhhhhhhh I have to dispute this notion that Leake and Bailey play in front of a defensive alignment that changes significantly depending on who's on the mound. The Reds have a pretty regular lineup.

To that point, if the defense changes year to year, but Leake still out performs his peripherals and Bailey still underperforms them, that seems to me to support the idea that its an actual skill and that the defense isn't as huge as a variable as proposed, rather than dispute that notion.

I think Leake has been outperforming his peripherals this year with that snazzy ERA and win total that everyone likes to call "actual" production. I don't think this was the case in the past though -- and that's part of why many people don't except the numbers to last.

[nate]

Ehhhhhhhh I have to dispute this notion that Leake and Bailey play in front of a defensive alignment that changes significantly depending on who's on the mound. The Reds have a pretty regular lineup.

I dunno. Last year was pretty consistent but 2011 saw a lot of left-side infield changes like Rolen/Cairo and Renteria/Janish in addition to a Gomes/Heisey/Lewis hydra in LF. 2010 gave us more Rolen/Cairo and (shudder) Cabrera/Janish.

To that point, if the defense changes year to year, but Leake still out performs his peripherals and Bailey still underperforms them, that seems to me to support the idea that its an actual skill and that the defense isn't as huge as a variable as proposed, rather than dispute that notion.

Leake doesn't necessarily outperform his peripherals. He does outperform his FIP but his ERA and xFIP are pretty much the same.

To be continued...

[Razor Shines]

Bailey pitches poorly and gets a win? Gosh, that's random.

[Trajinous]

I think Leake has been outperforming his peripherals this year with that snazzy ERA and win total that everyone likes to call "actual" production. I don't think this was the case in the past though -- and that's part of why many people don't except the numbers to last.

"actual" production? I'm a little confused by that statement. A win is a win. A lot of sabermetrics are suppose to be predictive and you can't dismiss the actual stats that have happened. I think it's why some get defensive/combative between nerds/jocks.

It sounds like you are saying Leake doesn't deserve his stats. Which is just not true.

[Benihana]

Would still love to make the Bailey-for-Profar trade this offseason.

[westofyou]

"actual" production? I'm a little confused by that statement. A win is a win. A lot of sabermetrics are suppose to be predictive and you can't dismiss the actual stats that have happened. I think it's why some get defensive/combative between nerds/jocks.

It sounds like you are saying Leake doesn't deserve his stats. Which is just not true.

I think the assumption that folks who use numbers are nerds and those who don't are jocks causes quite a few issues too

[RedEye]

"actual" production? I'm a little confused by that statement. A win is a win. A lot of sabermetrics are suppose to be predictive and you can't dismiss the actual stats that have happened. I think it's why some get defensive/combative between nerds/jocks.

It sounds like you are saying Leake doesn't deserve his stats. Which is just not true.

I only put the word in scare quotes to show that I wasn't taking its meaning for granted. Remember that many folks still use W as a way to measure pitchers' achievements and claim that this is "actual production" on the field. Most of us know, though, that W are a statistic like any other -- and a very poor one at that.