The second-guessing game

[AtomicDumpling]

This offseason the Reds could have had their choice of players as good as Dye without giving up Bailey. Dunn, Abreu, Burrell and Ibanez were all available to anyone that wanted them. Their salaries are roughly comparable to Dye's and wouldn't have cost us Bailey.

The reason those guys were not brought in was the Reds didn't want to pay them. That is the same reason the Dye-Bailey trade fell through. Bailey wasn't the deal breaker -- it was money.

The Reds decided to slash payroll at the expense of fielding a complete major league baseball team. Profit was more important than winning. As usual.

[Mario-Rijo]

Wonder how many people in KC gave up on Grienke three years ago?

Whoever did is tearing themselves up right about now, he is flat out filthy.

[PuffyPig]

Homer Bailey has pitched 5 games at AAA. In 27 innings (5.4 innings per start) he's given up 27 hits and 11 walks. His ERA is 4.61 and his WHIP is 1.39. The only statistic that even impresses is his 31 strikeouts. Allowing an average of 5 runs per game, it really doesn't matter about your strikeouts. they are nice, but I'd rather get them out without allowing a bunch of hits, too.

The trade should have been made. I think Homer will be no better than a 4 starter and maybe a five. And that's a year or two off. We could use Dye's offensive abilities so much this year. it might make the difference in winning 75 or 90 games.

Trading Homer for 1 year of Dye?????

Oh yeah, that's how small market teams build a winner.....

[fearofpopvol1]

I am convinced Dye would be an upgrade in LF. I am not convinced Dye alone is enough to get the Reds to the postseason.

[mbgrayson]

Wonder how many people in KC gave up on Grienke three years ago?

That is a very interesting comparison.

Zack Greinke was a first round pick in 2002, chosen with the 6th pick right out of high school. Zack was Baseball America's 2004 #1 prospect for Kansas City. He reached the majors as a 20 year old, and went on go 8-11, with a 3.97 ERA, 6.21 k/9, and a 1.17 WHIP. A very nice rookie campaign for a last place team. Then, in 2005, Greinke went 5-17, with a 5.80 ERA, 5.61 K/9, and a 1.56 WHIP. The Royals basically sent him back to the minors in 2006, where he mostly pitched in AA ball.

By 2007, Greinke had righted himself enough to make it back to the bigs, and went 7-7, 3.69 ERA, 7.82 K/9, and a 1.30 WHIP. In 2008, he went 13-10, a 3.47 ERA, an 8.14 K/9, and a 1.28 WHIP. (Again, for last place KC). This year, he is 5-0, with a .50 ERA, an 11.0 K/9 rate, and a .89 WHIP. He has a real shot at winning the CY Young this year if he stays close to his current start.

Homer Bailey was a first round pick for the Reds in 2004, chosen with the 7th overall pick right out of high school. He was the Baseball America #1 prospect for the Reds in 2007. He reached the majors at age 20. Homer only started 9 games in 2007, and went 4-2, with a 5.76 ERA, a 5.56 K/9 rate, and a 1.57 WHIP. In 2008, Homer went 0-6, with a 7.93 ERA, a 4.46 K/9 rate, and a 2.09(!) WHIP. He was also sent back to the minors.

So far in AAA this year, Homer is 3-2, with a 4.61 ERA, a 10.21 K/9 rate, and a 1.39 WHIP. Of course, the comparison to Greinke is incomplete, and will only be finished once Homer turns the corner and succeeds at the major league level. But the potential is there.

In the 2007 Baseball America Prospect handbook, the final sentence says "In time, he should become a true #1 starter."

We just need some patience here, and remember the part that says "In time....." Homer turned 23 on May 3rd this year. There is still time, and with that kind of potential, I am really glad we held onto him. As they say, you can never have too many good pitchers.

[edabbs44]

This offseason the Reds could have had their choice of players as good as Dye without giving up Bailey. Dunn, Abreu, Burrell and Ibanez were all available to anyone that wanted them. Their salaries are roughly comparable to Dye's and wouldn't have cost us Bailey.

The reason those guys were not brought in was the Reds didn't want to pay them. That is the same reason the Dye-Bailey trade fell through. Bailey wasn't the deal breaker -- it was money.

The Reds decided to slash payroll at the expense of fielding a complete major league baseball team. Profit was more important than winning. As usual.

This is a myth. They didn't have their choice of those guys. Those guys had their choice of a bunch of teams and happened to choose teams who have won in recent memory. Except Dunn, who wasn't coming back anyway.

[LoganBuck]

This is a myth. They didn't have their choice of those guys. Those guys had their choice of a bunch of teams and happened to choose teams who have won in recent memory. Except Dunn, who wasn't coming back anyway.

That isn't quite true, for example Abreu, his agent called Walt with an offer, Walt declined, his agent counteroffered, Walt said let me think about it. 24 hours later they decided that yes they wanted Abreu. But at that time the Angels were in the mix and offered $250,000 more. Abreu would have gone to the top bidder. These guys wanted/needed the money, Walt and BCast failed to read what the baseball economy was doing before they signed Weathers, Lincoln, and Taveras. Those three moves cost them from making any run at any hitter. JHJ essentially became a CYA move. They knew better otherwise they wouldn't have waited as long as they did to sign him. They essentially tried to make a sandwich with a nice hearth baked rye bread, a piece of gruyere cheese, a fancy dijon mustard, with aldi brand bologna. Nothing against Aldi, or bologna, but they ruin this sandwich. These games they keep throwing away are going to ruin this team.

They have started throwing the oily rags in the corner, how long until it ignites, and the whole thing burns to the ground?

[jojo]

I don't know how to run the numbers, but could one player account for 15 wins? That sounds high.

Generally the most valuable player in baseball tops out at a WAR of 9 to 10 (aka Pujols).

Dye is projected to have a wOBA of .355. Thus his bat would be +13 runs above average over 600 PAs. His defense is likely to be something like -18 runs (based upon CHONE projections). He gets dinged another -7.5 runs for playing leftfield. The he gets 20 runs for the difference between average and replacement over 600 PAs.

That would suggest he would be worth about a win (13+20-7.5-18.5).

[redsmetz]

That isn't quite true, for example Abreu, his agent called Walt with an offer, Walt declined, his agent counteroffered, Walt said let me think about it. 24 hours later they decided that yes they wanted Abreu. But at that time the Angels were in the mix and offered $250,000 more. Abreu would have gone to the top bidder. These guys wanted/needed the money, Walt and BCast failed to read what the baseball economy was doing before they signed Weathers, Lincoln, and Taveras. Those three moves cost them from making any run at any hitter. JHJ essentially became a CYA move. They knew better otherwise they wouldn't have waited as long as they did to sign him. They essentially tried to make a sandwich with a nice hearth baked rye bread, a piece of gruyere cheese, a fancy dijon mustard, with aldi brand bologna. Nothing against Aldi, or bologna, but they ruin this sandwich. These games they keep throwing away are going to ruin this team.

I would quibble with the one line which I've bolded. I think the market changed after they made those moves. I'd have to look at the dates, but I think the FA market had not shifted by that point (although I acknowledge I might be off slightly).

This is the first time I've heard this account of any dealings with Abreau's people. Where was that reported?

For all the "win now" philosphy from the start of Castellini's tenure, I think the action this off season, imperfect as it was, indicates that the expectation was not for 2009 to be the year. While Abreu wouldn't have required giving up a player (nor a draft pick loss), I'm really not sure the market had collapsed when we signed those earlier players. Yes, one could argue they hamstrung the club, I think the club anticipated a somewhat higher budget for salaries and that changed by the time Abreu's agent approached the Reds.

[bucksfan2]

It seems to me as if many on this board are in "grass is grenner" mode with Homer. He's been nitpicked so much since he was drafted that people consider him a bust and too far gone. But if he was in KC or Minnesota, for example, those same individuals would probably be clamoring to try and deal for him.

Homer is young. I know I am rooting for him to make it big in Cincy.

That is a very interesting take and I tend to agree. This entire off season poster threw out names of prospects they would have liked the Reds to try and trade for. Most were uber talented but had been disappointing in their short career. But I tend to agree that if Homer were in another organization many posters would value him and want the Reds to make a run at Homer.

[jojo]

That is a very interesting take and I tend to agree. This entire off season poster threw out names of prospects they would have liked the Reds to try and trade for. Most were uber talented but had been disappointing in their short career. But I tend to agree that if Homer were in another organization many posters would value him and want the Reds to make a run at Homer.

But would they use a "buy low" argument?

[15fan]

The time to have traded for Dye was after the 96 season.

(I suggested Pokey for Dye at the time).

And the time to have dealt Homer (as I astutely noted) was a couple years ago when he was the top prospect in the game.

It's a knockoff of a Warren Buffet phrase, but you buy when others are selling, and sell when others are buying.

[bucksfan2]

But would they use a "buy low" argument?

"Buy low" is in the eye of the beholder. The "buy low' argument was used on Ervin Santana a few summers ago. What a knowledgeable fan may think as a buy low opportunity may be completely different than what an organization may think.

[HokieRed]

Seems to me that one way the "failure to get a left-field bat" argument works is to conceal the problems with the offense attributable to the severe underperformance of players currently here: at the top of the list, Brandon Phillips and Edwin Encarnacion.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Since I don't think Homer Bailey will ever be worth a damn as a Major League pitcher, I would have liked the trade. Then again, I understand why the Reds didn't do it. Dye is overpaid at $12 million and if the Reds were going to give up a "top prospect" (and I use that term loosely) the Pale Hose were going to need to pay some of the salary. I can fully hear the Reds saying, "We'll give you Bailey, but you need to pick up some of the contract or it's a deal-breaker. You won't find anyone else who will give you more than Bailey. Take it or leave it."

The Sox left it. I can't blame the Reds for that. I would have liked the trade -- I would like to have a real left fielder -- but there is no question the Sox would have needed to pick up at least a little bit of Dye's contract. Otherwise, why would it have made sense for the Reds to trade for a LF when they just could have gone out and signed a FA LF.