Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

[GOYA]

Billy now has 24 SB in 33 games.

[RedsManRick]

You think you can run at 80% with 11 guys chasing after you waiting to rip your leg off has no margin for error? I agree that having a week off helps with recovery time and acknowledged that in my original post, but are you trying to persuade me that trying to steal a base once a day is anything close to carrying the ball 10-20 times a game with 11 BIG guys chasing you, hitting you and piling on top of you?

I think you're comparing apples and oranges. It's not about doing two things and then comparing who is more tired at the end of the day/week. I won't argue that football is more physically demanding. It's that RB can be banged up a bit and they'll still get carries and be moderately effective.

Stealing bases is fundamentally different. A failure on a steal attempt does much more harm the to the team than a failure on a given rushing attempt. And there is no gray area, no SB equivalent to a rush for no gain. It's a yes or a no, a base or an out. If the RB is a bit banged up, he'll still get carries and can be moderately effective. If a baserunner is banged up, his chances of success drop precipitously and he's quite likely to not run at all.

If a RB tweaks a hamstring, he may push through it. And after that game, he's got a week to recover without losing any rushing opportunities. If a baserunner has a tweaked hamstring, he's not stealing bases. And because there are so few days off, he's constantly missing chances to steal as he recovers.

[Scrap Irony]

Nice logic, RMR. Hadn't considered it like that. Makes sense.

[GOYA]

Billy now has 32 SB in 40 games.

Projection to a 138 game season:

110.4

[REDblooded]

I'd like to reopen this debate for RB/Baseball/Injury Impact of Running Bases opinions.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

What does 100 SB's combined with a .500 OPS equate to? Seriously. .750?

[dougdirt]

What does 100 SB's combined with a .500 OPS equate to? Seriously. .750?

Not even close.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Not even close.

Great thanks for answering the question, Dougdirt. You are the bestest.

[camisadelgolf]

What does 100 SB's combined with a .500 OPS equate to? Seriously. .750?

That is a very difficult question to answer. Ever player steals bases at a different success rate. This year, the MLB average is 71.4%. At that rate, a player who steals 100 bases would be caught 40 times, which has happened only once in MLB history (Rickey Henderson was caught 42 times in 1982).

Speaking of Henderson, he was successful in 80.7% of his attempts as a big leaguer. Billy Hamilton is successful 84.1% of the time for his career against weaker competition. But to be fair, the value of stolen base attempts was less understood back in Henderson's day, so he probably would've been more efficient if his prime were today.

I guess what I'm saying is this: before you can convert a stolen base to OPS, you need to determine the value of a stolen base. In order to do that, you need to decide on the context.

Are we talking about a player with average speed with an average success rate? Or a player with 80 speed who is successful in more than 80% of his attempts? If you go with the latter, what good does that do you in determining OPS?

The reason I ask is because a player with 80 speed will also turn singles into doubles and triples into home runs, so are we talking about a .500 OPS when factoring his speed? Not only that, but he'll also find more ways to score from second base on a single, so if you're looking to find out his overall value as a hitter and runner, you'll probably want to look at it from an angle of WAR as opposed to OPS.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

That is a very difficult question to answer. Ever player steals bases at a different success rate. This year, the MLB average is 71.4%. At that rate, a player who steals 100 bases would be caught 40 times, which has happened only once in MLB history (Rickey Henderson was caught 42 times in 1982).

Speaking of Henderson, he was successful in 80.7% of his attempts as a big leaguer. Billy Hamilton is successful 84.1% of the time for his career against weaker competition. But to be fair, the value of stolen base attempts was less understood back in Henderson's day, so he probably would've been more efficient if his prime were today.

I guess what I'm saying is this: before you can convert a stolen base to OPS, you need to determine the value of a stolen base. In order to do that, you need to decide on the context.

Are we talking about a player with average speed with an average success rate? Or a player with 80 speed who is successful in more than 80% of his attempts? If you go with the latter, what good does that do you in determining OPS?

The reason I ask is because a player with 80 speed will also turn singles into doubles and triples into home runs, so are we talking about a .500 OPS when factoring his speed? Not only that, but he'll also find more ways to score from second base on a single, so if you're looking to find out his overall value as a hitter and runner, you'll probably want to look at it from an angle of WAR as opposed to OPS.

Thanks, camisa. I appreciate the well thought out response.

I'm just wondering what a .500ish OPS translated too with 100 SB's (let's say at 84% success rate). I think it would probably better represented in RC.

Obviously .500 stinks, but those extra bases from steals should level it off. And combine that with a playing a defense-oriented position, such as SS and CF (his future IMO) and it changes the way we look at it.

For example, if Paul Janish had nearly 30 SB's right now, even his putrid OPS would seems tolerable. I was just wondering if anyone had a ball park guess as to what a .500 OPS would be the equivalent to - with all those steals.

[GOYA]

I don't know why the concern over Billy's OPS right now. We all know he is a project. If he learns to hit, then we may have something. In the meantime, he steals bases in low A.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Not worried about it. Just wondering how so many SB's can alter the value of it.

[camisadelgolf]

Thanks, camisa. I appreciate the well thought out response.

I'm just wondering what a .500ish OPS translated too with 100 SB's (let's say at 84% success rate). I think it would probably better represented in RC.

Obviously .500 stinks, but those extra bases from steals should level it off. And combine that with a playing a defense-oriented position, such as SS and CF (his future IMO) and it changes the way we look at it.

For example, if Paul Janish had nearly 30 SB's right now, even his putrid OPS would seems tolerable. I was just wondering if anyone had a ball park guess as to what a .500 OPS would be the equivalent to - with all those steals.

Using small sample sizes, I'd say that elite speed--through stolen bases, taking extra bases, and all around good base-running--can add about two WAR over a full season. If a .500 OPS translates to about -2.1 WAR over 500 plate appearances, then that would make him a AAAA player on offense. In other words, if his defense is average or below at shortstop, he doesn't deserve a spot on a MLB roster.

[GOYA]

Billy picked up his 40th in the Dragons' 48th game.

[mdccclxix]

In case people wonder, that's 12 more steals than anyone in baseball right now.