I don't see how in the World it's possible for this team to win less than 85 games...

[gedred69]

Has anyone heard what speed Harang is throwing so far ?
I remember the game at Chicago last year where he didnt get much over 88 the entire game.

He's occasionally tagging 91, and a 92 couple of times. Saw him pitch last week, he did not impress. Dunno, maybe the weight he lost helped his velocity! Truthfully, he seemed to have maybe lost his confidence, and is pitching tenative.

[jmac]

He's occasionally tagging 91, and a 92 couple of times. Saw him pitch last week, he did not impress. Dunno, maybe the weight he lost helped his velocity! Truthfully, he seemed to have maybe lost his confidence, and is pitching tenative.

Thanks for info. Hopefully it is "just" confidence and not something physical.

[Kingspoint]

I think the numbers you put up there will be possible to obtain but they do not represent a conservative estimate.

All of those guys are projected to pitch significant time at the Major League level this year, at least enough to get two wins.

[CesarGeronimo]

Great to see that Dusty has his regular season lineup out there today against the Pirates with the two guys worst at getting on base, Taveras and Gonzalez, batting 1-2. I, for one, will be surprised if this lineup produces 80 wins. The pitching should be better, but not good enough to overcome a below average group of hitters with a lineup that has its worst hitters at the top of the order.

[NeilHamburger]

Any concern over the fact that the reds aren't only losing recently, but just being dominated and looking outclassed by teams? I mean this offense looks really really terrible. If Bruce and EE have off years this could very well be the worst offense in baseball, and this could be a historically bad team.

[Kingspoint]

Any concern over the fact that the reds aren't only losing recently, but just being dominated and looking outclassed by teams? I mean this offense looks really really terrible. If Bruce and EE have off years this could very well be the worst offense in baseball, and this could be a historically bad team.

There is no way under any scenario where EE will have an off-year. You can put that concern aside. He's not a qeustion mark any more than Votto is a question mark. He'll have an OPS of over .800 that will rank no worse than 4th best on the team.

There are about two dozen question marks that are bigger on this team than whether or not EE has an off year.

[Driver62]

I'll give you my view of the Reds. I've been following them since the 1940's and this is my take from what I've seen so far in ST.

I know it's ST but Harang and Arroyo haven't shown me anything to think they'll win 10-15 games this year. Cordero is getting lit up like a high school kid. I think his ERA is around 18.00.

Tavaras hasn't shown me anything except how to not get on base and Keppinger was hitting below the Mendoza line the last I heard.

I'm not sure that Gonzales is healthy enough to play on an every day basis and it seems the alternative is Keppinger.

Add in Dusty, who I think is a very poor manager, and the Reds will be lucky to win 80 games this year...75 is more likely.

As I said before, it's ST but I haven't seen anything to make me optimistic for the coming season. I hope I'm wrong as I love the Reds but I've seen optimism in ST before and then watched the team fall on it's face during the season.

Just my take and I'm sure the homers will jump on me but that's the way I see it.

[CesarGeronimo]

There is no way under any scenario where EE will have an off-year. You can put that concern aside. He's not a qeustion mark any more than Votto is a question mark. He'll have an OPS of over .800 that will rank no worse than 4th best on the team.

There are about two dozen question marks that are bigger on this team than whether or not EE has an off year.

OK, fascinating, why is it that Edwin, who has a career OPS of .801, could not have an off-year or slip below .800 this year like he's done in two of his four major league seasons so far? I'm not saying he will, but I'm curious about why you're so confident that he won't.

[jmac]

Any concern over the fact that the reds aren't only losing recently, but just being dominated and looking outclassed by teams? I mean this offense looks really really terrible. If Bruce and EE have off years this could very well be the worst offense in baseball, and this could be a historically bad team.

The losing in ST doesnt bother me but I would rather see wins even if regs arent in games.

As far as hitting, yes it seems as of now, that it is a concern but we all have seen how things can change drastically come opening day (for the better and worse)

Also Dusty has been doing a few little things that he probably wouldnt do when season starts such as starting Dickerson vs Lefties and Gomes vs Righties.

Bruce has been hitting the ball better recently and his last two starts have been facing lefties.

[BLEEDS]

Change the word "Win" to "Lose" and I'll agree with you...

I don't know if I'd use pitcher wins as a variable, but if I were to assume those wins, you might think the ERA's of these guys would have to be:


Volquez....................2.15 ERA
Harang.....................2.40 ERA
Arroyo......................3.12 ERA
Cueto.......................3.52 ERA
Owings.......................4.00 ERA
Bailey.........................4.00 ERA

Then, they might get those win totals. Our offense is going to average about 4.3 runs a game at best, with a lot of 1 and 2 run games, so in order to keep us in those games our pitchers are going to have to be near the top in the NL in order to get us close to .500

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Kingspoint]

+1.

He'll probably never win 16 again.

You can step away from the ledge now.

[Kingspoint]

OK, fascinating, why is it that Edwin, who has a career OPS of .801, could not have an off-year or slip below .800 this year like he's done in two of his four major league seasons so far? I'm not saying he will, but I'm curious about why you're so confident that he won't.

Because of the 10,000+ players that have played baseball, 98% of them that will end up with as many career at-bats as EE will end up with have an increase in production from the age EE was beginning last season to the age EE wil be beginning this season. I see no reason why he'll be the rare 2% exception. And most of that increase is in the form of 10% or more. I expect his OPS to be at least 10% greater than it was in the 2008 season.

[CesarGeronimo]

Because of the 10,000+ players that have played baseball, 98% of them that will end up with as many career at-bats as EE will end up with have an increase in production from the age EE was beginning last season to the age EE wil be beginning this season. I see no reason why he'll be the rare 2% exception. And most of that increase is in the form of 10% or more. I expect his OPS to be at least 10% greater than it was in the 2008 season.

Wait now, are you saying that 98% of players have a better season when they are 26 than the season they had when they were 25? Where are you getting that from?

[Kingspoint]

Wait now, are you saying that 98% of players have a better season when they are 26 than the season they had when they were 25? Where are you getting that from?

No. I didn't say that. I said that of the pool of as many players that have had as many career at-bats as EE will end up having. And, the data comes from 20+ years of Bill James' Annuals.

[JBChance]

No. I didn't say that. I said that of the pool of as many players that have had as many career at-bats as EE will end up having. And, the data comes from 20+ years of Bill James' Annuals.

How do you know or project how many career AB's EdE will have? Just curious.