Chapman headed back to the bullpen?

[OnBaseMachine]

Jesse Sanchez - Chapman settling into big league groove

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/...s_cin&c_id=cin

[gilpdawg]

The worst thing the Reds front office can do right now is panic.

Stick with the plan, develop Chapman as a starter and don't trade anything of value for 50 innings of middle relief pitching. (JMHO)

Good lord, yes, yes, yes. I could not agree with this post any more.

[AtomicDumpling]

The worst thing the Reds front office can do right now is panic.

Stick with the plan, develop Chapman as a starter and don't trade anything of value for 50 innings of middle relief pitching. (JMHO)

Agreed 100%.

[GAC]

If not Chapman as that 5th guy, then who? Francis? He didn't help his cause any yesterday vs Texas, and the Reds have to make a decision on him by Wednesday as far as the 25 man roster goes. Looking at him career-wise I'm not that impressed. And then there's pitching at GABP. Bailey, who also has not had a stellar ST, is also out of options. They aren't going to give up on him just yet. At least not for the likes of a Francis.

IMO, Chapman, looking at his performance this Spring, has earned that spot and opportunity. This is a 24 yr old kid with great potential. I still go with Chapman in the rotation. It's not like it's written in stone either. If need be, he can be moved back into the BP. But he has definitely earned his shot.

[GoReds]

Chapman as the fifth starter with Bailey in long relief in the pen for the first five starts. If Chapman is pulled early, Bailey takes over in long-relief. If another starter falters or has an injury, Bailey is there to step into that role.

I can see Chapman being more productive in the next two years than Bailey will likely be in any two-year stint in his career. I don't see Bailey with the Reds past this year.

[Caveat Emperor]

You're kidding right? You've concluded that off of 16 career starts in this country? He hasn't developed a third pitch because he's been a reliever.

Last time I checked lefties who throw 105 don't grow on trees.

And yet history has shown time and time again that the ability to throw a baseball fast is meaningless unless it's coupled with command (the ability to throw MULTIPLE pitches for strikes) and pitching sense.

Chapman throws 105 -- it's a neat moment for fans and gives him something to put on the license plate of his lamborghini, but it's pretty meaningless in any calculus of his value to the Reds. Until he develops a third pitch and refines his command, or shows the ability to pitch multiple days in a row in relief without a drop in effectiveness, Chapman is a novelty act with limited real value to the Reds beyond being a situational reliever.

[Cedric]

And yet history has shown time and time again that the ability to throw a baseball fast is meaningless unless it's coupled with command (the ability to throw MULTIPLE pitches for strikes) and pitching sense.

Chapman throws 105 -- it's a neat moment for fans and gives him something to put on the license plate of his lamborghini, but it's pretty meaningless in any calculus of his value to the Reds. Until he develops a third pitch and refines his command, or shows the ability to pitch multiple days in a row in relief without a drop in effectiveness, Chapman is a novelty act with limited real value to the Reds beyond being a situational reliever.

You act as though Chapman hast already produced at the major league level. He has.

[Caveat Emperor]

You act as though Chapman hast already produced at the major league level. He has.

He's produced in the role they've carved out for him -- reliever that can't go multiple days in a row.

Beyond that to closer? Starter?

Right now, hard to see it.

[lollipopcurve]

Right now, hard to see it.

I can understand the skepticism. The simple response is....

1. He doesn't have a pressing need for a 3rd pitch. His fastball and slider are potentially dominant. He's working on a split. If his third pitch eventually becomes nothing more than a show me pitch, 5X or so a game, that should suffice.
2. The command is improving. Look at the spring stats. Note Bud Black's comment that the delivery looks improved (Bud Black knows pitching). And the reports that his tempo is better, quicker.

He is NOT the same pitcher he was. He is developing. You can be as skeptical as you like, but if you think you know what kind of pitcher he is, based on 2010-2011, you're not paying attention to what he is now and to what he could become.

[traderumor]

And yet history has shown time and time again that the ability to throw a baseball fast is meaningless unless it's coupled with command (the ability to throw MULTIPLE pitches for strikes) and pitching sense.

Chapman throws 105 -- it's a neat moment for fans and gives him something to put on the license plate of his lamborghini, but it's pretty meaningless in any calculus of his value to the Reds. Until he develops a third pitch and refines his command, or shows the ability to pitch multiple days in a row in relief without a drop in effectiveness, Chapman is a novelty act with limited real value to the Reds beyond being a situational reliever.

A starter with two very good pitches is always better than a starter with three or four mediocre pitches. You make it sound axiomatic that a third pitch is a necessity for a starter, sort of like "pitchers under 6 feet tall will have short careers." Methinks you doth protest too much to be taken seriously and sound like you're dogging a guy instead of providing a realistic critical analysis of his value.

[Kc61]

IMO, the reality is that Homer and Arroyo are in the rotation mostly because (a) Homer was a highly touted draft choice who is still young and has been "okay" and (b) Arroyo has a big contract.

Chapman is the guy, however, with clearly superior stuff. It might be best if he could train at AAA for awhile, but I see him as the clear choice to be fifth starter. He's just harder to hit than the other guys.

I agree with lollipopcurve on this one. Chapman had a meltdown last year, but otherwise was effective at the big league level. He's not a novice.

As a fifth starter, throwing five or six inning stints to begin, he brings the most to the table -- and I don't think it is really very close.

Chapman isn't perfect, but right now he seems like the best solution to me and I would feel much more confident in the Reds pitching with Aroldis on the staff, preferably in the rotation.

[Sea Ray]

I can understand the skepticism. The simple response is....

1. He doesn't have a pressing need for a 3rd pitch. His fastball and slider are potentially dominant. He's working on a split. If his third pitch eventually becomes nothing more than a show me pitch, 5X or so a game, that should suffice.
2. The command is improving. Look at the spring stats. Note Bud Black's comment that the delivery looks improved (Bud Black knows pitching). And the reports that his tempo is better, quicker.

He is NOT the same pitcher he was. He is developing. You can be as skeptical as you like, but if you think you know what kind of pitcher he is, based on 2010-2011, you're not paying attention to what he is now and to what he could become.

Keep in mind that Aroldis won't be throwing 105 MPH as a starter. He'll likely settle in between 95-99MPH. Big league hitters can time that. Changing speeds is huge to successful pitching

[dougdirt]

I can understand the skepticism. The simple response is....

1. He doesn't have a pressing need for a 3rd pitch. His fastball and slider are potentially dominant. He's working on a split. If his third pitch eventually becomes nothing more than a show me pitch, 5X or so a game, that should suffice.
2. The command is improving. Look at the spring stats. Note Bud Black's comment that the delivery looks improved (Bud Black knows pitching). And the reports that his tempo is better, quicker.

He is NOT the same pitcher he was. He is developing. You can be as skeptical as you like, but if you think you know what kind of pitcher he is, based on 2010-2011, you're not paying attention to what he is now and to what he could become.

1. Justin Verlander has a better fastball than Aroldis Chapman does (as a starter, he throws it just as hard or harder and he can throw it for strikes in any count). His curveball is just as good as the slider from Chapman. Yet he also throws a plus change up and an above average slider. Even guys with two plus pitches as starters, tend to throw third pitches often. Yes, there are a handful of exceptions in history who didn't. That doesn't mean we should count on Chapman joining their ranks.

2. I pay little attention to his spring stats as a suggestion that his command has improved. Mike Leake has 3 walks and 4 strikeouts this spring. I don't expect his rates to look like that at the end of the year and I expect you don't either, because we know he has better control than that. With Chapman, we don't know that at all. What we know is that in 12 innings this spring he has been able to post a strong K/BB rate and a few anecdotes that his delivery looks better. The 12 innings over 4 games against marginal at best competition doesn't tell us anything. The anecdotes may or may not tell us much. Dusty Baker once told us how hard Norris Hopper hit the baseball (the same guy who had 3 career home runs in over 3000 trips to the plate).

To suggest that he isn't the same pitcher as he was, based off of spring training, is very likely getting well ahead of yourself. Maybe he really is different in terms of his control. But to be honest, we don't know at all if he is or not and nothing provided here is going to actually show it. I will say that I feel a lot more comfortable thinking I know what kind of a pitcher a guy is based off of 170 innings over the previous two years than I do based off of 12 spring training innings though.

[lollipopcurve]

To suggest that he isn't the same pitcher as he was, based off of spring training, is very likely getting well ahead of yourself. Maybe he really is different in terms of his control. But to be honest, we don't know at all if he is or not and nothing provided here is going to actually show it. I will say that I feel a lot more comfortable thinking I know what kind of a pitcher a guy is based off of 170 innings over the previous two years than I do based off of 12 spring training innings though.

Every journey starts with a step. Yes, after a step you're closer to where you started than to where you will end up. But the fact of the matter is that this organization intends to develop Chapman as a starter -- as they should -- and that the development has begun on multiple fronts. Delivery, tempo, 3rd pitch (moving to a split), and, of course, stretching the arm out to carry a starter's workload. These are tangible changes, even if they are not facts recorded on a stat line. This stuff takes time, and if you don't give it time, instead preferring to look backwards, you don't understand it.

[RollyInRaleigh]

Talk of the "split" with Chapman really scares me a little. Really a tough pitch on the arm. Would love to see him be able to develop a straight change.