Reds Pitching for the next three years

[Benihana]

Enjoying the present while keeping an eye on the future is interesting when it comes to the Reds' pitching staff, because it's quite possible that at least 8 or 9 of the Reds pitchers seem to be locked in for the next couple years.

Obviously injuries, sudden ineffectiveness, and other problems can likely plague any pitcher and derail futures faster than a Volquez fastball, but let's take a quick glance at what we have here (signed through 2010).

I'm assuming that this is probably David Weathers' final season with the Reds, given the fact that he'll be 40 next year and has undoubtedly reached the twilight of his career. Let's look at what we have:

SP1 Aaron Harang R
SP2 Johnny Cueto R
SP3 Edinson Volquez R
SP4 Bronson Arroyo R
SP5 Homer Bailey R OR Matt Maloney L

Swingman Matt Belisle R
LHRP Bill Bray L
Setup Jared Burton R
CL Francisco Cordero R

That leaves two open positions in the bullpen. One of them has to go to a lefty, especially if Bailey is the #5 starter over Maloney. I'm assuming that lefty will be one of Wayne's signature veteran free agent signees, a la Affeldt (maybe he stays beyond this year, but doubtful considering he prefers starting.) If the lefty reliever role does get filled from within the organization, the most likely option is Pedro Viola- or possibly even Maloney if he gets beat out for the rotation by Bailey. The second spot, presumably vacated by Weathers, will most likely go to either Marcus McBeth or Josh Roenicke, who are currently the best RP prospects in the system.

That would leave the following guys out of luck, or not part of (my) Reds future plans beyond this season:

Jeremy Affeldt- Free Agent
Josh Fogg- Free Agent
Todd Coffey- Too inconsistent/ineffective
Mike Lincoln- Too insignificant
Kent Mercker- Too old
David Weathers- Too old
Gary Majewski- Too awful

Now, I know the above contains a LOT of assumptions (Cueto and Volquez stay healthy and continue to progress, Belisle and/or Arroyo aren't traded, Bray can be healthy for more than a week, etc.) but I think it's very intriguing that (other than finding a veteran lefty for the 'pen,) pitching may not have to be one of the Reds top offseason priorities for the next couple of seasons. Thoughts?

[WMR]

I haven't given up on Coffey yet. Lincoln could end up being worth keeping around as well.

[edabbs44]

I haven't given up on Coffey yet. Lincoln could end up being worth keeping around as well.

Agreed on Coffey and disagree on the original post giving Bray an automatic spot. His reputation definitely hasn't been earned while in Ohio. He is on the fringe for the next couple of years, IMO.

[dfs]

That leaves two open positions in the bullpen.

heh. Actually given the reality of injuries, there will likely be 5-6 slots open. It's also possible that one or more of these guys gets dealt.

Still, it looks a ton better than it did three years ago.

[princeton]

Thoughts?

extend the GM

[RedsManRick]

extend the GM

I'd like to see what he does about Dunn and Junior first. An offense built around Bruce, Phillips, EE, and Votto has a ton of potential -- but could get ugly too. As we've seen with EE and the Indians saw with BP, sometimes young bats don't develop as quickly as you'd hope, even if they seem ready to burst on to the scene.

[fearofpopvol1]

I'd imagine Rick that Grif is as good as gone at the end of the season. Dunn on the other hand is another question. I wonder if they'd try to move Votto to LF and put Keppinger at 1B if they don't re-sign Dunn.

[princeton]

I'd like to see what he does about Dunn and Junior first.

the view is completely changed, and you want to look at old photos?

onward. upward. armward.

[OnBaseMachine]

extend the GM

I agree with that. The only fault I have with Krivsky is the dumb contracts he's given to guys like Stanton and Cormier, and keeping Juan Castro around. But with guys like Roenicke and Viola and Fisher coming up through the system, the days of him handing out contracts to older relievers should be coming to an end. Overall, I'm pleased with what Wayne has did so far in his tenure. The Reds top prospects are finally staying healthy and producing (knock on wood) and we finally have the makings of a great rotation. He built the Reds middle infield off Russ Haltiwanger and Jeff Stevens, two guys who will never even sniff the majors. He acquired Josh Hamilton for nothing and then flipped him for a potential ace. He acquired our second best reliever for nothing. Thanks to he and his assistants knowing the rules over everyone else, they acquired the top Latin American talent in the DR this year for 2 million dollars. He locked Brandon Phillips, Bronson Arroyo, and Aaron Harang up to below market value deals. He's got this organization going in the right direction - my hope is he's given a 2-year extension sometime this season.

[princeton]

I'd imagine Rick that Grif is as good as gone at the end of the season.

I'm not convinced of that.

I'm pretty sure that one will be back. It wouldn't surprise if Krivsky, the contract guy, opts for the one that requires the smallest commitment (Jr's option), whereas Cast/Jocketty may line up on the other side.

It should be interesting. Either way, Krivsky has to return because he didn't just understand that it's the pitching stupid, he embraced it.

and just as an aside-- if I was a rival owner, I'd be most interested in taking Krivsky off the Reds' hands...

[fearofpopvol1]

I'm not convinced of that.

I'm pretty sure that one will be back. It wouldn't surprise if Krivsky, the contract guy, opts for the one that requires the smallest commitment (Jr's option), whereas Cast/Jocketty may line up on the other side.

It should be interesting. Either way, Krivsky has to return because he didn't just understand that it's the pitching stupid, he embraced it.

and just as an aside-- if I was a rival owner, I'd be most interested in taking Krivsky off the Reds' hands...

I guess we'll see. Griffey showed some signs of regressing last year and I expect that to continue this year. Unless it was an amazing price, I just don't see how this makes sense, especially with Bruce ready to take his place. If Dunn leaves and Griffey is willing to move to LF, then maybe. I just have a hard time seeing it. It was hard enough to get him to move to RF.

[bucksfan2]

I agree with that. The only fault I have with Krivsky is the dumb contracts he's given to guys like Stanton and Cormier, and keeping Juan Castro around. But with guys like Roenicke and Viola and Fisher coming up through the system, the days of him handing out contracts to older relievers should be coming to an end. Overall, I'm pleased with what Wayne has did so far in his tenure. The Reds top prospects are finally staying healthy and producing (knock on wood) and we finally have the makings of a great rotation. He built the Reds middle infield off Russ Haltiwanger and Jeff Stevens, two guys who will never even sniff the majors. He acquired Josh Hamilton for nothing and then flipped him for a potential ace. He acquired our second best reliever for nothing. Thanks to he and his assistants knowing the rules over everyone else, they acquired the top Latin American talent in the DR this year for 2 million dollars. He locked Brandon Phillips, Bronson Arroyo, and Aaron Harang up to below market value deals. He's got this organization going in the right direction - my hope is he's given a 2-year extension sometime this season.

I agree with most of this. I on the other hand don't fault WK for the relieving mess that the reds found themselves in for the past two seasons. The first season Krivsky was here the reds had nothing in regards to their pen. He had to scower the waver wire in order to find arms to pitch. I really don't fault him for bringing in Mays, Kim, Yan, etc. because in reality they didn't do a whole lot worse than what had already been in place. I really think "the trade" and the Cormier trade extention was a result of Cast. wanting to win that season and the reds need to fix their bullpen asap. Stanton was a horriable signing but in reality what GM doesn't have bad signings?

IMO Krivsky has come in and operated like a successful small market GM does. Acquires the most talent he can under a certain budget, extends its stars before they become too expensive, and is always looking to get more talent into the system. With the exception of Hamilton, which player traded by Krivsky has gotten better? Which player traded had played above and beyond his contract?

[princeton]

If Dunn leaves is Griffey is willing to move to LF, then maybe. I just have a hard time seeing it. It was hard enough to get him to move to RF.

Jr should not move to LF. The arm is not the problem.

[IslandRed]

I'd imagine Rick that Grif is as good as gone at the end of the season. Dunn on the other hand is another question. I wonder if they'd try to move Votto to LF and put Keppinger at 1B if they don't re-sign Dunn.

I doubt it -- at least the part about Keppinger going to 1B.

I would like to see the Reds re-sign Dunn, but we have to remember that he's a full-fare ticket from now on and he's right at the typical career peak age. Analytically, that means that there is little chance he'll offer bargain production over a multi-year contract; the likelihood is that we'll get what we pay for; there is a chance we'll overpay. Given that, if he doesn't come back? That might be a bad thing for the Reds, or even a good thing, or a neutral thing, all depending on what we do with the money we would have paying him.

[Benihana]

I'm not convinced of that.

I'm pretty sure that one will be back. It wouldn't surprise if Krivsky, the contract guy, opts for the one that requires the smallest commitment (Jr's option), whereas Cast/Jocketty may line up on the other side.

It should be interesting. Either way, Krivsky has to return because he didn't just understand that it's the pitching stupid, he embraced it.

and just as an aside-- if I was a rival owner, I'd be most interested in taking Krivsky off the Reds' hands...

Agree completely. I'd love to see them extend Krivsky, but I am quite concerned that the presence of Jocketty might prevent that from happening.

As far as the Dunn situation goes, I think the emergence of Cueto and Volquez, provided they can stay healthy and continue to progress, takes enough concern off of the pitching situation so that they can commit the required capital to Dunn over the next 3-4 years. In addition to core position players like Phillips, Votto, Bruce and even EE, they have their closer and presumably seven starting pitchers locked up from now through 2011 (Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Belisle, Bailey, and Maloney), so they can commit $50-$60 MM to Dunn, and have that deal -along with Harang and Arroyo's contracts- come off the books by the time any of the young guns are eligible for arbitration. That way they have their "window to contend" for the next 3-4 years, and should still be able to lock any/all of the young guns up for the long term when their time comes- a classic win-win.

So, my conclusion is give Dunn 3-4 years and $50-$60 MM, and extend Krivsky. That way, everybody (except edabbs44) should be happy.

*As an aside, I wouldn't be surprised to see Arroyo traded before his contract runs out. Between Belisle, Bailey, and Maloney- plus whatever other prospects might mature by then, I would expect one or two of them to emerge and make Bronson expendable, particularly if they decide they want to use his money down the line towards locking up one (or more) of the young guns.