Hal - what's wrong and what's right

[_Sir_Charles_]

I don't think they'd make the decision ONLY on those 40 ab's. But those 40 ab's certainly have some say in the matter. As would their work ethic, how they perform during practice and how they're playing in general apart from the straight statistics. Just because a hit doesn't fall doesn't mean the player isn't hitting the ball hard. Just because a pitcher ends up giving up some hits doesn't mean he's not controlling his pitches well. But to say that those 40 ab's are pretty much meaningless, I'd say that's completely wrong. How they're currently playing should have more impact than how they "used" to play. None of those NRI's were good LAST year, they're all coming off stinkers. So current production is a pretty important aspect IMO...track record or no.

[Always Red]

Deciding whether Jones/Ward/Gomes makes the team because of 40 spring training PA's is a flawed way to make decisions because attaching significant meaning to spring training stats a flawed approach. That doesn't really change whether it's your #1 starter or the 25th man.

jojo, read my post again. Eyeballs, not stats.

[jojo]

Really? All three have had a mixed bag of results at the major league level. How would you evaluate them?

Estimate their true skill level, bring them in and watch them to make sure they haven't fallen off a cliff/you're estimate is sound then pick the one that fits your needs best regardless of their spring stats-even if he hit .93/.125/.111 and a guy you've estimated to be a lesser player or poorer fit hit .567/.765/1.344.

[OnBaseMachine]

While they may certainly be proven talent, the only thing they are proving this Spring is they know how to get their heads beat in.

Because they're not worried about their spring training stats. Both Arroyo and Harang have admitted they are just working on some things and aren't concerned about stats.

[OnBaseMachine]

Here's a list of some big name pitchers and how they are faring this spring:

Cliff Lee - 6.2 IP, 19 H, 2 BB/5 K, 18.90 ERA

Scott Kazmir - 10 IP, 16 H, 1 BB/6 K, 5.40 ERA

Matt Garza - 10.2 IP, 12 H, 3 BB/7 K, 5.90 ERA

Matt Cain - 16.1 IP, 21 H, 7 BB/15 K, 7.16 ERA

CC Sabathia - 7.2 IP, 9 H, 2 BB/9 K, 7.04 ERA

And that's just a few. I could've named plenty more. Most guys who have jobs locked down are just focused on getting their work in and getting prepared for the regular season.

[edabbs44]

Here's a list of some big name pitchers and how they are faring this spring:

Cliff Lee - 6.2 IP, 19 H, 2 BB/5 K, 18.90 ERA

Scott Kazmir - 10 IP, 16 H, 1 BB/6 K, 5.40 ERA

Matt Garza - 10.2 IP, 12 H, 3 BB/7 K, 5.90 ERA

Matt Cain - 16.1 IP, 21 H, 7 BB/15 K, 7.16 ERA

CC Sabathia - 7.2 IP, 9 H, 2 BB/9 K, 7.04 ERA

And that's just a few. I could've named plenty more. Most guys who have jobs locked down are just focused on getting their work in and getting prepared for the regular season.

One huge difference is that these guys aren't coming off subpar seasons. Everyone understands your point, and it is valid. But there is more to assessing ST performance than just stats.

[Ravenlord]

Anyone remember which players had really good springs last year and who had really bad ones?

last year no, but i do remember Jimmy Anderson, Emil Brown, and Rob Stratford's spring training for the Reds.

[Ravenlord]

Estimate their true skill level, bring them in and watch them to make sure they haven't fallen off a cliff/you're estimate is sound then pick the one that fits your needs best regardless of their spring stats-even if he hit .93/.125/.111 and a guy you've estimated to be a lesser player or poorer fit hit .567/.765/1.344.

except as platoon players, they are all at roughly the same level offensively. Jones gives a defensive edge cause he takes good routes. to me, a Jones/Ward/Gomes spring competition is the only way you can figure out who comes north (i'd prefere Gomes and Ward in that order).

[Patrick Bateman]

One huge difference is that these guys aren't coming off subpar seasons. Everyone understands your point, and it is valid. But there is more to assessing ST performance than just stats.

I'm of the opinion that simply ignoring spring training stats altogether is for the best. Such a small sample of such different competition than what will be faced come the regular season.

I'm not saying this to suggest there is no reason to assume that Harang will bounce all the way back to his pre 2008 form. But spring training evidence is not in the least compelling in suggesting that there's reason to be concerned he's about to repeat 2008 all over again.

I think that spring training is a good place for observations. If Harang was getting negative reviews about the quality of his stuff, I'd be somewhat concerned about his status going into the season.

If I were to consider looking at stats, I think that peripheral stats would be the best possible indicator of a how a guy is doing. It's the reason that I think Owings and Bailey are starting to look interesting, and on the same token, perhaps a sign that Harang is far from sharp right now.

But I wont be worried about Harang until he shows the same types of struggles in the regular season. Anything else is completely premature IMO, considering the dozens of reasons of why spring training sucks as a predictive tool. Until then, I believe we have just as much reason to label Harang as a question mark today as we did at the end of the 2008 season. No more, no less.

[RedlegJake]

Pitchers I don't worry about so much in ST statwise. Hitters are a bit different, getting your stroke down - the timing, the mechanics of your swing, by the time the season gets close those things should start clicking. If they're not the player may be in for a slow start at least. Hot hitting in spring doesn't impress me much unless it's basically an equal choice of who stays or goes on the fringes then you might as well go with the guy showing something everything else being basically equal. That the Jones-Gomes thing in a nutshell. Jonny is doing it, Jacque looks finished. Hanigan though HAS been impressive. What bothers me so far is the team still simply looks disjointed. Hopefully that changes but they still are making dumb errors, looking sloppy too often.

[RFS62]

More important than most early stats, they're all working on their timing. They're watching the hitters to see if they're squaring it up, the pitchers to see if they're hitting their spots. They're playing their way back into baseball shape.

Even if in top physical shape, the day in, day out baseball activity gets you in the rhythm of a very fast game. No amount of off season practice can duplicate that.

[lollipopcurve]

last year no, but i do remember Jimmy Anderson, Emil Brown, and Rob Stratford's spring training for the Reds.

Emil Brown? What has he had to do with the Reds?

The big guy was Stratton.

[blumj]

Spring training stats are evil.

[Chip R]

I don't think you can ust look at ST stats and make a judgement one way or another. But for a guy like Jones, you look to see what he's done during the regular season as of late and you look at the ST stats and you have to think that the guy cannot hit anymore. It's highly unlikely that he's going to perform poorly in the spring and all of a sudden revert to All Star form when the regular season starts.

[OnBaseMachine]

I don't think you can ust look at ST stats and make a judgement one way or another. But for a guy like Jones, you look to see what he's done during the regular season as of late and you look at the ST stats and you have to think that the guy cannot hit anymore. It's highly unlikely that he's going to perform poorly in the spring and all of a sudden revert to All Star form when the regular season starts.

I agree with this.