Report: Reds Hire Bryan Price

[joshua]

The exact quote was:

""I've had a chance to watch a lot of good managers. We have to use statistical analysis to understand parts of the game, but you have to understand what kind of talent the team has.""

[ChaseReds]

Just in case anyone missed it you can watch the full press conference here:

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...ss-conference/

[malcontent]

No way do I want to watch that funky windup anymore than the few times a year that I see the Braves play.

I just watched a couple clips...and now I think that there is probably no way the Braves would include him, unless the Reds sent more than Phillips.

Nasty stuff. The delivery is definitely funky but I think it contributes.

Phillips and Marshall for Uggla, Wood and a suspect. Think of the karmic balance of a second Wood/Marshall trade.

[oregonred]

I'm just going to make an observation, and it's something I've noticed with the Reds fan base since I can remember. It seems that once a player signs a long term, high salaried contract, no matter who that player is, there is a certain segment of the fan base that automatically just turns on that player.

In 2009, Joey Votto made barely over $437,000. Still lots of money by "regular people" standards, but pocket change for big league stars. He hits the field and puts up a 156 OPS+ for the Reds, blossoming into their best star player and not a single Reds fan had anything negative to say about him. Whenever he'd come up to the plate in a big situation, the ovations were loud and thunderous. Sometimes he'd come through, and GABP would explode. Sometimes he wouldn't come through, and fans reacted with in an "aw shucks" kind of manner.

The following season, 2010, is much the same, except the ovations are even louder. Votto has a bit better season, he leads the Reds to their first playoff appearance in 15 years and he couldn't do a thing wrong.

Fast forward to 2013. He puts up the second highest on-base percentage of his career. His OPS+ of 154 is nearly identical to his 2009 figure. Not to mention he played in all 162 games and piled up 726 plate appearances. Just absolutely loads of production. You could say his power numbers are down, but I'll counter that offensive production is down across the league. You don't produce in a vacuum - you produce relative to your peers. Joey Votto in 2013, despite being blasted by a segment of the media and fan base, was a more productive hitter than Joey Votto in 2009 when he couldn't do a thing wrong.

But the only difference is a big contract with a lot more money. That's it. Now suddenly if he isn't money each and every plate appearance, he hears the wrath. The same thing has happened to other players. Once they get that contract and the high salary, certain segments of the media and fan base suddenly turn on the player. They're suddenly expected to be invincible, better than they ever were. They get blasted for being the same exact player and person that they were four years previously when no one batted an eye.

I know what the argument is: well he makes all this money so he should change, blah blah blah. That's hogwash, and we all know it. Let a star player who produces much the same as he's always produced be, and let that same guy be the same guy off the field that he's always been. Money or a big contract shouldn't change any of that.

Sometimes I wonder if certain Reds fans and certain members of the media wished that Votto would have just walked out the door via free agency. Maybe that's what Shin Soo Choo and Homer Bailey really need to do too. Because it's an absolute guarantee that if they stick around with a big time contract, the howling about their shortcomings and bad stretches in upcoming seasons will reach an all-time high.

Some people in the Reds media and some Reds fans just need to get over themselves.

There is some truth to this - in virtually every market. The idea that Cincinnati is somehow unique on this front continues to make me laugh. Perhaps Cinci is a bit different being a two sport town with an intense focus and local passion on the Reds. On second thought, the banana phone contingent may be unique...

Votto has the 4th largest contract in pro sports history in one of the smallest markets. Fame doesn't come without expectations and controversy some fair most unfair.

I think Price will be terrific for Votto. Hopefully he'll set the record straight with some of the media blowhards that don't get the value of Votto's offensive production. I don't think Baker helped Joey out much at all - in fact I'd say his comments only added fuel to the fire.

I'm actually pretty shocked by the comments that have been said/not said with regard to the dismissal of Baker (seemed to be no surprise to the players) and the hiring and ringing endorsements of Price before and after the hire. Price continues to be positioned as the anti-Baker.

[RedsManRick]

3 Reds in the top 8 and still had issues producing runs in games that mattered

It's almost like the other 5 hitters in the lineup matter too.

I think as sports fans our expectations have been affected by football and basketball. In both of those sports, the most critical element of strategy is the distribution of opportunities. And because opportunities can be distributed at will, it allows for superstar players to have outsized impact. In baseball, opportunities are more or less fixed. Each player bats just once through the lineup. Sure, because of the length of the season, individual players can differentiate themselves to a superstar level. But within a given game, no one player can make the difference.

[REDREAD]

Worst = least productive

Again, you are not answering my question.

I said a big part of the stat philosphy was ordering the lineup by OBP, with OPS in the 3rd and 4th slot and you basically said I was wrong.

Thus, I am asking you to explain how the stat philosphy of a lineup works (in your opinion).

Just saying "Don't put the worst two hitters first" is not very precise, unless you define worst. If it's purely stats based, shouldn't there be something close to a recipe that we could've applied to the Reds lineup? Or at least your opinion of how it should be done?

[bucksfan2]

It's almost like the other 5 hitters in the lineup matter too.

I think as sports fans our expectations have been affected by football and basketball. In both of those sports, the most critical element of strategy is the distribution of opportunities. And because opportunities can be distributed at will, it allows for superstar players to have outsized impact. In baseball, opportunities are more or less fixed. Each player bats just once through the lineup. Sure, because of the length of the season, individual players can differentiate themselves to a superstar level. But within a given game, no one player can make the difference.

So in essence the Runs Created weren't actually created?

[MWM]

So in essence the Runs Created weren't actually created?

That's clever and all, but you do know that the word "created" is used in a different context than you are trying to imply. "Contribution to overall runs scored" isn't as easy to remember as runs created.

[AmarilloRed]

The exact quote was:

""I've had a chance to watch a lot of good managers. We have to use statistical analysis to understand parts of the game, but you have to understand what kind of talent the team has.""

There are all sorts of baseball statistics. That can pretty much mean what you want it to mean.

[bucksfan2]

That's clever and all, but you do know that the word "created" is used in a different context than you are trying to imply. "Contribution to overall runs scored" isn't as easy to remember as runs created.

To me this is where there is a big disconnect. Joey Votto did not create that many runs, in order to create that many runs it means those runs actually came to fruition. So you can throw out "Runs Created" stats all you want, but when put into practice they are lacking.

I don't want a manager focusing on stats like RC or WAR or any of the advanced metrics that try to tell you how "valuable" a player is. That is fodder for the GM and the front office when they are making player personal decisions. I want a manager to keep the amount of information that he uses on a game to game basis minimal. Useful stuff for a game manager would be OBP, SLG, AVG in setting lineups. Also knowing range factors as well as tendencies of opposing hitters when setting the defense and then taking into consideration splits for relievers and hitters against relievers.

[westofyou]

Worried about Offense?

Count times on base, look at outs generate look at slugging above average

CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
2013
Non P
OUTS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
SLG vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

REACHED BASE                    RB      OUTS      SLG    
1    Joey Votto                  316      428     .090   
2    Shin-Soo Choo               300      426     .062   
3    Jay Bruce                   229      479     .077   
4    Brandon Phillips            205      483    -.005   
5    Todd Frazier                188      431     .006   
6    Zack Cozart                 172      464    -.020   
7    Devin Mesoraco              101      262    -.038   
8    Xavier Paul                  81      165     .001   
9    Ryan Hanigan                 79      189    -.139   
10   Derrick Robinson             68      153    -.078   
11   Chris Heisey                 67      181     .015   
12   Jack Hannahan                51      116    -.113   
13   Ryan Ludwick                 41      106    -.075   
14   Cesar Izturis                36      111    -.129   
T15  Corky Miller                 15       27    -.001   
T15  Donald Lutz                  15       44    -.090   
17   Billy Hamilton                9       14     .073   
18   Henry Rodriguez               2        8    -.290   
19   Neftali Soto                  1       13    -.401

[RedEye]

Again, you are not answering my question.

I said a big part of the stat philosphy was ordering the lineup by OBP, with OPS in the 3rd and 4th slot and you basically said I was wrong.

Thus, I am asking you to explain how the stat philosphy of a lineup works (in your opinion).

Just saying "Don't put the worst two hitters first" is not very precise, unless you define worst. If it's purely stats based, shouldn't there be something close to a recipe that we could've applied to the Reds lineup? Or at least your opinion of how it should be done?

Your question, I thought, was how do I define "worst." So I did. I think others have now responded at length to your larger query, so I will refrain from repeating their points unless there is something else you are missing.

[traderumor]

To me this is where there is a big disconnect. Joey Votto did not create that many runs, in order to create that many runs it means those runs actually came to fruition. So you can throw out "Runs Created" stats all you want, but when put into practice they are lacking.

I don't want a manager focusing on stats like RC or WAR or any of the advanced metrics that try to tell you how "valuable" a player is. That is fodder for the GM and the front office when they are making player personal decisions. I want a manager to keep the amount of information that he uses on a game to game basis minimal. Useful stuff for a game manager would be OBP, SLG, AVG in setting lineups. Also knowing range factors as well as tendencies of opposing hitters when setting the defense and then taking into consideration splits for relievers and hitters against relievers.

I would want a manager to understand the value of a hitter in the most comprehensive way possible so he can maximize his usage over the course of the season. Then, you don't start seeing your best hitter alter his approach toward the end of the season because his manager overvalues "clutch" and "BA with RISP" and RBI and has been whispering in his ear to "be a little more aggressive and less selective to drive in more of them runs." I fear that is what happened to Votto as the season wore on and the pressure to produce in a certain way (RISP clutch hits) was being communicated by his manager.

So, I think a comprehensive understanding of player value and HOW he creates his value, which is derived from a comprehensive understanding of advanced measurements, adds value to your field manager. It will allow him to relax when he needs to and let guys do their job the way they do it and to put guys in the best position to succeed more times than spitting tobacco and kicking benches in the dugout will garner the desired results.

[RedEye]

To me this is where there is a big disconnect. Joey Votto did not create that many runs, in order to create that many runs it means those runs actually came to fruition. So you can throw out "Runs Created" stats all you want, but when put into practice they are lacking.

I don't want a manager focusing on stats like RC or WAR or any of the advanced metrics that try to tell you how "valuable" a player is. That is fodder for the GM and the front office when they are making player personal decisions. I want a manager to keep the amount of information that he uses on a game to game basis minimal. Useful stuff for a game manager would be OBP, SLG, AVG in setting lineups. Also knowing range factors as well as tendencies of opposing hitters when setting the defense and then taking into consideration splits for relievers and hitters against relievers.

I don't understand at all why you would privilege some stats and not others. If you are trying to understand how offense works, why close off some stats and not others? Price is a smart guy; he won't be overwhelmed.

[M2]

My preferences on #2 hitters:

1. Low DP numbers. Assuming there's some OB coming from the leadoff slot, I don't want my #2 hitter quickly converting that into two outs. I don't really care about "bat control," but I care about that.

2. OB or Power/Speed. Ideally you'd have both. Chase Headley at his peak was pretty much my ideal #2 hitter. However, assuming you can't have everything, then I want one of those two things. The OB is even better if it comes attached to power or speed, but OB is a good thing to have on its own. Sometimes it can be difficult to find OB that doesn't come attached to DPs. Joe Mauer is a case in point. This year he posted a .404 OB with only 7 DPs. That's fantastic. Last year his .416 OB came attached to 23 DPs (which would have been like knocking 37 points off his OB - making the case to hit Mauer at #1 rather than #2).

Of course, most teams don't have the luxury of multiple high OB players to choose from. So if you're sifting through sub-.350 OB options, how do you choose? That's were power/speed comes into play. A guy like Carlos Gomez may not be on as often as others, but he's got TBs in his bat and rocket fuel in his feet. He can make things happen. In a perfect world I'm hitting him 3rd (or lower) behind guys with more OB, but this isn't a perfect world. Gomez certainly would have been a better #2 hitter than Jean Segura last season.