Stephenson promoted to Pensacola

[NeilHamburger]

The more I think about it the more losing that series to the Giants after being up 2-0 and coming home hurts. That very well could've been their best shot at the world series.

The lack of hitters in the minors from high A to AAA is a killer. If Bailey can't net you someone like Trumbo or Fowler I don't know what you do.

I know this. They go into next year with this lineup and they are in trouble:

Hamilton
Phillips
Votto
Ludwick
Bruce
Mesoraco
Frazier
Cozart

Hamilton has struggled every time he's advanced a level, and this would be his biggest advancement. I just don't see how you can count on him.

Frazier, Cozart, Hamilton and the pitcher (not to mention Ludwick a year older and Phillips a year older) has the potential to be just terrible. And you wanna talk about needing pitching depth, you are one Bruce or Votto injury away from being completely irrelevant with that lineup.

It really is a major potential problem. The bad news is I don't see any obvious fixes. Anyone else get that feeling?

[Kc61]

Without copying mth's post, the only thing I strongly doubt is that the Reds would trade Bailey without a major league return.

I don't think Chapman will be traded, but mth makes a good argument on that one.

[mth123]

Without copying mth's post, the only thing I strongly doubt is that the Reds would trade Bailey without a major league return.

I don't think Chapman will be traded, but mth makes a good argument on that one.

Think about what the Indians got for Choo. They added $3 Million and a bunch of role players to net a below average major league OF in Stubbs and a guy who has been in the minors most of the year. I just don't see getting three years of an established guy like Trumbo or two years of Dexter Fowler for a year of Homer Bailey. Perhaps Cueto could get him if he didn't have the health issues or Latos might do it, but not a guy who is a year from free agency and has been fairly inconsistent. Guys like Matt Garza, Zach Greinke, Jake Peavey and Anibal Sanchez haven't brought anything established like that back. They get lots of decent minor leaguers though. I'm sure the Reds could get a major league CF if they are willing to take money on for a year of a guy who will be a free agent himself (Coco Crisp at $7.5 Million would be a good example).

This team needs to make a prospect deal. Guys like Joc Pederson who are blocked prospects should be guys they should be thinking of. I'm not sure a year of Homer gets anyone that highly rated, but 3 years of Chapman would plus other stuff as well IMO.

[HokieRed]

Without copying mth's post, the only thing I strongly doubt is that the Reds would trade Bailey without a major league return.

I don't think Chapman will be traded, but mth makes a good argument on that one.

Bunch of good thoughtful posts here about next year. I see no point in trading Bailey unless he brings a ready to go upgrade at CF, LF, C, 3B, or SS (hopefully one of the last two.) I don't think he'll bring that given his contract situation and thus I see him in the rotation again next year.

If Marshall's sound, I think they may trade Chapman, again for an immediate upgrade at one of the 5 positions above. He looks to me like the most valuable trading chip whose loss causes us the least pain.

[krm1580]

Think about what the Indians got for Choo. They added $3 Million and a bunch of role players to net a below average major league OF in Stubbs and a guy who has been in the minors most of the year. I just don't see getting three years of an established guy like Trumbo or two years of Dexter Fowler for a year of Homer Bailey. Perhaps Cueto could get him if he didn't have the health issues or Latos might do it, but not a guy who is a year from free agency and has been fairly inconsistent. Guys like Matt Garza, Zach Greinke, Jake Peavey and Anibal Sanchez haven't brought anything established like that back. They get lots of decent minor leaguers though. I'm sure the Reds could get a major league CF if they are willing to take money on for a year of a guy who will be a free agent himself (Coco Crisp at $7.5 Million would be a good example).

This team needs to make a prospect deal. Guys like Joc Pederson who are blocked prospects should be guys they should be thinking of. I'm not sure a year of Homer gets anyone that highly rated, but 3 years of Chapman would plus other stuff as well IMO.

While I agree with your point that it will be difficult for the Reds to flip one year of Bailey for multiple years of an established player that is an upgrade to what we have, I really think you are understating what the Indians got for Choo.

The guy you are referring to as "a guy who has been in the minors most of the year" is Trevor Bauer who at the time of the deal was considered one of the top 5 prospects in baseball. Depending on what publication you looked at he was considered either the 1st or 2nd best pitching prospect in all of baseball. If the Reds knew they could not sign Bailey traded him and got an Archie Bradley or Dylan Bundy back in return I don't think too many people here would be upset.

Personally I hope the Reds are able to resign Bailey in the offseason and if not they trade him somewhere to the American League. I watch the Cardinals sign absolute garbage like Lohse and Westbrook and watch them turn into frontline starters and I cringe at the thought what would happen if they got their hands on a guy like Bailey who actually has talent.

[Benihana]

My shot at predicting the off-season.

1.Qualifying offers to Choo and Arroyo. Choo is likely gone, but Arroyo could accept.

2. If Arroyo walks, Bailey stays and will get his own qualifying offer after 2014. If Arroyo stays, Bailey is likely dealt for monetary reasons. I'd guess the return would be one pretty good prospect (maybe toward the bottom of the top 100 list or just off of it), a depth guy who is similar to Reds depth guys like Lutz, Rogers, etc. and a lottery ticket minor leaguer. They may not get all that. Arroyo getting qualifying money means that there won't be money for anyone established or making money in a Bailey deal IMO. One year of Bailey won't net anything like Trumbo, Fowler or the like unless that player only has one year of control left as well. I'd be thrilled if they could get some one in the Gregorious mold as the main guy in a deal for him. The only exception would be if the Reds take a contract back, say Asdrubel Cabrera or some one like that, but I'm not sure there will be money available to do so.

3. The 2014 rotation will be Cueto, Latos, Cingrani, Leake and Bailey/Arroyo. Stephenson starts in AA and will be looked at as the next guy in line if a starter is needed IMO.

4. To add offense, I'm guessing Chapman will also be shopped. His deal converts to a signing bonus and the Reds will need to go to arb with him. Between the bonus money and the arb award, Chapman will be a $6 to $10 Million year over year increase in cost. He's the guy who may be dealt for a bat and stuff. Possibly in a package type deal.

5. Lorenzen will be in the mix early in the year, if not right out of Spring training. Hoover/Broxton will somehow man the 8th and 9th with Lecure and Simon fronting them. The Reds probably need a lefty. Parra will be a free agent and Marshall is a huge question mark. Partch and Ondrusek probably fight for 12th man. Guys like Crabbe, Rogers, Renken and maybe even Corcino may be the next Hoover or Lecure in the making at some point in 2014.

I think the aggressive movement of Stephenson and Lorenzen is because the Reds know they will need them at some point in 2014. They just don't have the money for quality depth and the minor leaguers ahead of them are either fringey (Rogers, Renken, Crabbe), have taken steps backawards (Corcino) or aren't really in the plans (Ravin, Villareal).

Agree with most of this, although I think Bailey could fetch a bit more than what you are projecting. I think it is feasible to trade Bailey for two years of Fowler, at least from a value standpoint even if it doesn't make much sense for Colorado in reality.

Texas could be another destination if Garza leaves in FA. Maybe Baltimore too.

Regardless, I only move Bailey if a good return is coming back - a major league ready/upgrade at CF, LF, or SS. Otherwise I'd hang onto him and try to sign/make a qualifying offer for after 2014.

Chapman I would support moving, even for (good) prospects. My dream is as part of a package to Miami for Stanton (Chapman and Winker?) but I'd settle for sending him to LA and the Dodgers (Seager + Pederson) or Angels (Trumbo + Cowart). Boston in a straight up deal for Xander Bogaerts could be interesting as well.

[mth123]

While I agree with your point that it will be difficult for the Reds to flip one year of Bailey for multiple years of an established player that is an upgrade to what we have, I really think you are understating what the Indians got for Choo.

The guy you are referring to as "a guy who has been in the minors most of the year" is Trevor Bauer who at the time of the deal was considered one of the top 5 prospects in baseball. Depending on what publication you looked at he was considered either the 1st or 2nd best pitching prospect in all of baseball. If the Reds knew they could not sign Bailey traded him and got an Archie Bradley or Dylan Bundy back in return I don't think too many people here would be upset.

Personally I hope the Reds are able to resign Bailey in the offseason and if not they trade him somewhere to the American League. I watch the Cardinals sign absolute garbage like Lohse and Westbrook and watch them turn into frontline starters and I cringe at the thought what would happen if they got their hands on a guy like Bailey who actually has talent.

Kind of my point. You want to get real talent back for a rental? The Prospect route seems like a more realistic option. Didi and Bauer were prospects not established guys with control left like Trumbo. Choo was more established than Bailey is (at least in a world outside of Redszone though the two no-nos may be closing that gap) and the Indians did pitch in $3 Million with Choo as well as 3 role player types who amounted to nothing (Tony Sipp, Lars Anderson, and Jason Donald) but I'm not sure how they were valued. If the Reds aren't willing to add money to pay Bailey's arb award, it will limit the market IMO. Perhaps they'll find a team that soured on a top guy the way the D-Backs seemed to have soured on Bauer (they dealt him for essentially a guy 70 some spots down in the rankings and a couple fringe players), otherwise, I'd say some one more in Didi's range (#80 overall before the 2013 season) than a top 10 guy.

Otherwise, exchanging Homer for a rental that plays another position would do, but I presume the only way Homer is dealt is if Arroyo is back and his money means some one making money needs to go. That would seem to preclude taking anyone back who makes money unless other moves to save dollars would be coming as well.

[Kc61]

Kind of my point. You want to get real talent back for a rental? The Prospect route seems like a more realistic option. Didi and Bauer were prospects not established guys with control left like Trumbo. Choo was more established than Bailey is (at least in a world outside of Redszone though the two no-nos may be closing that gap) and the Indians did pitch in $3 Million with Choo as well as 3 role player types who amounted to nothing (Tony Sipp, Lars Anderson, and Jason Donald) but I'm not sure how they were valued. .

I don't think the Choo trade is necessarily a template because the Dbacks and Indians obtained players who fit their particular needs. Arizona especially was well known to be seeking a young, controllable, MLB-ready shortstop and got exactly what they wanted.

If the Reds were to trade Bailey I think they would insist on a player who can help the team's offense in 2014, and a starting player at that. Could be someone very young, could be a veteran perhaps with only a couple of contract years left.

I agree that Homer's contract status would heavily factor in. I don't think the Reds are getting Mike Trout. But I don't think it has to be a prospect trade.

[HokieRed]

The problem with trading Bailey remains what to do with the rotation for 2014. It either means re-signing Arroyo, and, IMHO, his estimate of 39 for 3 is probably going to be met by somebody, or spend a substantial amount on a fifth starter. There's no Cingrani in our system ready to step in. Stephenson's a great prospect, but he's had 1 AA start; Corcino's certainly not ready; Chad Rogers is no substitute for Bailey. A Reynolds or Galarraga is not going to be enough. Even if you sign a FA starter--which will, remember, involve multi years--you're still left counting on Cueto and Cingrani to give you +or-200 innings. Bailey's on pace to give us 215 innings of 1.15 WHIP this year. Can we reasonably replace that next year? And if we can't, have we already punted the chance to contend before the season opens?

[Benihana]

The problem with trading Bailey remains what to do with the rotation for 2014. It either means re-signing Arroyo, and, IMHO, his estimate of 39 for 3 is probably going to be met by somebody, or spend a substantial amount on a fifth starter. There's no Cingrani in our system ready to step in. Stephenson's a great prospect, but he's had 1 AA start; Corcino's certainly not ready; Chad Rogers is no substitute for Bailey. A Reynolds or Galarraga is not going to be enough. Even if you sign a FA starter--which will, remember, involve multi years--you're still left counting on Cueto and Cingrani to give you +or-200 innings. Bailey's on pace to give us 215 innings of 1.15 WHIP this year. Can we reasonably replace that next year? And if we can't, have we already punted the chance to contend before the season opens?

That's why the Reds can enjoy the luxury of waiting to see if Arroyo accepts the qualifying offer before deciding whether or not to trade Bailey.

Of course if Arroyo seeks a LTC elsewhere, it just raises the bar even further on what the Reds would have to get in a return for Bailey for the reasons that you state.

[bellhead]

The problem with trading Bailey remains what to do with the rotation for 2014. It either means re-signing Arroyo, and, IMHO, his estimate of 39 for 3 is probably going to be met by somebody, or spend a substantial amount on a fifth starter. There's no Cingrani in our system ready to step in. Stephenson's a great prospect, but he's had 1 AA start; Corcino's certainly not ready; Chad Rogers is no substitute for Bailey. A Reynolds or Galarraga is not going to be enough. Even if you sign a FA starter--which will, remember, involve multi years--you're still left counting on Cueto and Cingrani to give you +or-200 innings. Bailey's on pace to give us 215 innings of 1.15 WHIP this year. Can we reasonably replace that next year? And if we can't, have we already punted the chance to contend before the season opens?

Bronson unfortunately isn't going to get 3 for 39... Kyle Lohse signed 3 years for 33 million coming off of a much better year than Bronson.

I think Bronson is going to get a 2 or 3 year deal of around 7 to 9 a year, only because of his track record of eating innings.

The other thing that factors in is the Reds will get compensation picks for Bronson if they make a qualifying offer, which will take away from his market value.

[klw]

I think if Bronson gets a qualifying offer from the Reds he takes it as it would kill his market value. I doubt a team will meet his demands and give up a first rounder for him. Only possible destination becomes a big market team with low current financials who are top 10 pick protected. I doubt Bronson goes to a bad team, however.

How the compensation system works:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/0...ee-agents.html

or

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-...n-system-works

[Kc61]

The problem with trading Bailey remains what to do with the rotation for 2014. It either means re-signing Arroyo, and, IMHO, his estimate of 39 for 3 is probably going to be met by somebody, or spend a substantial amount on a fifth starter. There's no Cingrani in our system ready to step in. Stephenson's a great prospect, but he's had 1 AA start; Corcino's certainly not ready; Chad Rogers is no substitute for Bailey. A Reynolds or Galarraga is not going to be enough. Even if you sign a FA starter--which will, remember, involve multi years--you're still left counting on Cueto and Cingrani to give you +or-200 innings. Bailey's on pace to give us 215 innings of 1.15 WHIP this year. Can we reasonably replace that next year? And if we can't, have we already punted the chance to contend before the season opens?

I think this is only looking at one side of the ball. Posit the Reds next year without Choo, with Hamlton not ready. Can they compete with that?

And posit a situation where Bailey turns down a significant Reds offer and makes it quite clear he will play the market after the season.

The Reds will be short, one way or the other. They can keep Homer and get draft choices who may not help the team before 2018. Or they can trade him, use the trade to help fix the offense, and find another way to complete the rotation.

I don't think it's so obvious they would keep Bailey if he refused to sign. They might be better off paying Arroyo $8-10 million for a couple of years, not sure BA will get more in FA. They might be better off adding a cheaper starter from the market, or even rushing Stephenson who may be ready sooner than anyone thinks.

If the Reds were a complete ballclub, then letting Homer play out the string would be the obvious move. But the team needs offense and without Choo definitely would, and the Reds would seriously have to consider this trade if they know Homer will be leaving anyway. IMO.

[mdccclxix]

Every year the FA pitching market looks better to me than most, but this year especially. There are a lot of former all stars on this list, I think a small FA deal might be possible with someone, not that I prefer trading Bailey per se:

Bronson Arroyo (37)
Scott Baker (32)
Erik Bedard (35)
A.J. Burnett (37)
Chris Capuano (35) - $8MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Chris Carpenter (39)
Bruce Chen (37)
Bartolo Colon (41)
Aaron Cook (35)
Jorge De La Rosa (33)
Scott Feldman (30)
Gavin Floyd (31)
Jeff Francis (33)
Freddy Garcia (37)
Jon Garland (34)
Matt Garza (30)
Roy Halladay (37) - $20MM vesting option
Jason Hammel (31)
Aaron Harang (36) - $7MM+ mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Dan Haren (33)
Roberto Hernandez (33)
Tim Hudson (38)
Phil Hughes (28)
Ubaldo Jimenez (30) - may void $8MM option for 2014
Josh Johnson (30)
Jeff Karstens (31)
Scott Kazmir (30)
Hiroki Kuroda (39)
Jon Lester (30) - $13MM club option with a $250K buyout
Colby Lewis (34)
Ted Lilly (38)
Tim Lincecum (30)
Paul Maholm (32)
Shaun Marcum (32)
Jason Marquis (35)
Ricky Nolasco (31)
Roy Oswalt (35)
Mike Pelfrey (30)
Andy Pettitte (42)
Wandy Rodriguez (35) - $13MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout
Jonathan Sanchez (31)
Ervin Santana (31)
Johan Santana (34) - $25MM club option with a $5.5MM buyout
Joe Saunders (33) - mutual option
James Shields (32) - $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jason Vargas (31)
Ryan Vogelsong (36) - $6.5MM club option with a $300K buyout
Edinson Volquez (30)
Tsuyoshi Wada (33) - $5MM club option
Jake Westbrook (36) -- $9.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout.
Chien-Ming Wang (34)
Suk-min Yoon (27)
Chris Young (35)
Barry Zito (36) - $18MM vesting option with a $7MM buyout

[mdccclxix]

I think Price could make hay with this list.