Jonathan Mayo Discusses Bruce For Bedard

[redsfan4445]

per mlb traderumors.com

"Jonathan Mayo Discusses Bruce For Bedard

You've probably heard of Jonathan Mayo. He's a prominent writer on MLB.com, focusing on the minor leagues more recently. Mayo recently wrote a book called Facing Clemens, which "puts you right in the batter's box against the Rocket Man." Mayo finished the book before the steroid allegations surfaced, but it sounds like an interesting read regardless.

In the interest of full disclosure, I should mention that if you click the above Amazon link and buy the book, I'll get 46 cents. Hopefully Mayo gets a better cut than that from his publisher!

Anyway, I asked Mayo a handful of questions for publication on MLBTR.

MLBTR: If you were Wayne Krivsky, would you trade Jay Bruce for Erik Bedard straight up? What players would you compare Bruce to? How does Bruce compare to Adam Jones?

Mayo: In a word, no. I wouldn’t trade Bruce for Bedard straight up. Frankly, and maybe I’m a little prospect-slanted, there’s not much I would trade Jay Bruce for. Not only is the guy going to be one of the game’s great hitters, he’s an outstanding individual who’ll represent the organization extremely well. I know that’s not the be-all, end-all, but Bruce is going to be a true ambassador for the game. He’s going to hit for average, get on base, hit for a ton of power, play good OF (eventually RF, but fine in CF for now), throw runners out, maybe even steal a few bases. It’s hard to come up with a good comparable, but I’ll go with Larry Walker. Maybe not quite as much speed, but it’s pretty close.

Jones is more of a prototypical five-tooler, who won’t hit for as much power right away. I think Bruce has more power potential than Jones, while Jones is likely a bit faster and will stay in CF."


I do not see the Reds trading Bruce at all!!

[RedsManRick]

An aside from this ringing endorsement, I find it funny that these sorts of once in a generation talents, as guys like Bruce are frequently described, tend to come around every year...

[medford]

While Larry Walker had a great, great career, and if I could pencil that in for Bruce's tenure w/ the Reds I'd take it in a second and not look back.

however, when one describes a yount talent that is as close to untouchable as you can get, Larry Walker is not the name that props to mind. There were many players I would have traded Larry Walker's career for. The young players I wouldn't ever go back and even consider a trade rings more like A-rod or Junior.

[jojo]

While Larry Walker had a great, great career, and if I could pencil that in for Bruce's tenure w/ the Reds I'd take it in a second and not look back.

however, when one describes a yount talent that is as close to untouchable as you can get, Larry Walker is not the name that props to mind. There were many players I would have traded Larry Walker's career for. The young players I wouldn't ever go back and even consider a trade rings more like A-rod or Junior.

I don't know, ignoring environment, Walker's career line of .313/.400/.565 is very impressive (Jr's: .290/.374/.553; Arod: .306/.389/.578). While Jr and Arod played more premium defensive positions in their defensive primes, all three can beat their chests when it comes to gold gloves.

[M2]

I don't know, ignoring environment, Walker's career line of .313/.400/.565 is very impressive (Jr's: .290/.374/.553; Arod: .306/.389/.578). While Jr and Arod played more premium defensive positions in their defensive primes, all three can beat their chests when it comes to gold gloves.

Agreed. Walker's one of the more severely underrated players of his generation. At the plate he and Duke Snider finished with twin careers.

He and Jr. have the exact same OPS+ (140). A-Rod is at 147, but let's see where that goes after his late 30s. You can make a very good case that Walker's one of the 10 best players of the past 20 years. If Jay Bruce is going to be a player of that order, then you hold onto him and never let him go.

[red-in-la]

I guess I find this all too much to believe......20 years old and we are talking AROD?

And just how do you hold onto Bruce past 5-6 years?

[princeton]

And just how do you hold onto Bruce past 5-6 years?

we need more worries like that one

[Screwball]

I guess I find this all too much to believe......20 years old and we are talking AROD?

We're talking Larry Walker. I know all this is impossible for you to fathom, but extremely talented prospects can and do turn in to exceptionally good ML players.

[Spitball]

The young players I wouldn't ever go back and even consider a trade rings more like A-rod or Junior.

I hear what everyone is saying, but how many championship teams have A-Rod, Junior, and Larry Walker played on? How did the Mariners do after Junior then A-Rod left town?

[RedsManRick]

I hear what everyone is saying, but how many championship teams have A-Rod, Junior, and Larry Walker played on? How did the Mariners do after Junior then A-Rod left town?

Sigh. Better get rid of him now before he robs us of a championship.

[edabbs44]

Agreed. Walker's one of the more severely underrated players of his generation. At the plate he and Duke Snider finished with twin careers.

He and Jr. have the exact same OPS+ (140). A-Rod is at 147, but let's see where that goes after his late 30s. You can make a very good case that Walker's one of the 10 best players of the past 20 years. If Jay Bruce is going to be a player of that order, then you hold onto him and never let him go.

Is that with ignoring his huge advantage of getting 2500 career PAs at Coors Field in its heyday? 1.172 OPS in Coors.

Agreed that he was a very good player, but top 10 in the last 20 years is kind of out there. Especially in this day of analyzing every little stat imaginable.

People bash Jim Rice to death about his Fenway advantage. This dwarfs the Rice situation.

[IslandRed]

Is that with ignoring his huge advantage of getting 2500 career PAs at Coors Field in its heyday? 1.172 OPS in Coors.

Agreed that he was a very good player, but top 10 in the last 20 years is kind of out there. Especially in this day of analyzing every little stat imaginable.

People bash Jim Rice to death about his Fenway advantage. This dwarfs the Rice situation.

OPS+ is both park and league adjusted.

One other thing about Larry Walker -- he was kind of brittle, only once playing more than 143 games in a season in his career. If he'd been healthier and put up 155-160 starts per season, he's a serious Hall of Fame contender, Colorado or no Colorado.

[Jay Bruce]

Is that with ignoring his huge advantage of getting 2500 career PAs at Coors Field in its heyday? 1.172 OPS in Coors.

Agreed that he was a very good player, but top 10 in the last 20 years is kind of out there. Especially in this day of analyzing every little stat imaginable.

OPS+ accounts for ballpark factors, so his career was very impressive, even when accounting for the Coors Effect. We all know that Coors Field (as well as GABP) can make marginal batters look like all stars. However, Walker and Helton (career OPS+ 143) in his prime would have been great in any ballpark they played in.

If Bruce becomes a Walker type player, we should consider ourselves very lucky.

[M2]

Is that with ignoring his huge advantage of getting 2500 career PAs at Coors Field in its heyday? 1.172 OPS in Coors.

Agreed that he was a very good player, but top 10 in the last 20 years is kind of out there. Especially in this day of analyzing every little stat imaginable.

People bash Jim Rice to death about his Fenway advantage. This dwarfs the Rice situation.

Walker actually gets unfairly dinged because of Coors. OPS+ backs out the park effect and Walker grades out dead even with Jr. (who's spent most of his career in some fine hitter's parks too). He's also dead even with Duke Snider, with career counting numbers practically identical to Walker's. So it's not like Walker hit in Coors and so what. He's still awesome after you normalize the numbers.

Plus, I've always viewed parks like that as a double-edged sword. It's got to be hard to adjust to other parks when you go on the road. To Walker's credit, when he went back down toward sea level, he still hit like a fiend. Coors didn't make him, it just changed the mix on how he got his numbers. He just happens to be the best player ever to don a Rockies uniform and that shouldn't be held against him.

[M2]

OPS+ is both park and league adjusted.

One other thing about Larry Walker -- he was kind of brittle, only once playing more than 143 games in a season in his career. If he'd been healthier and put up 155-160 starts per season, he's a serious Hall of Fame contender, Colorado or no Colorado.

Even with the injuries, he's still more than earned. I'll say it again, he and Duke Snider had identical careers. Snider was a no-brainer for Cooperstown and, based on that, I don't see any argument for keeping Walker out.