Erardi's Trade

[Superdude]

The guy who knows Chapman's abilty better than anyone is now the manager. If Price says he's going to be a starter, that's good enough for me. Chapman is likely the most dominant, overpowering pitcher in the game. Why in the world would you want to trade him?

To me he's a much better pitcher than he gets credit for. He wields a fastball as mercilessly as anyone I'll probably ever have the luxury of watching, and it's not just velocity. If consistent work makes his slider a little more reliable, I just can't imagine him being hittable on the mound in any capacity.

[SidneySlicker]

The guy who knows Chapman's abilty better than anyone is now the manager. If Price says he's going to be a starter, that's good enough for me. Chapman is likely the most dominant, overpowering pitcher in the game. Why in the world would you want to trade him?

I'd obviously defer to Price as well, but why would they trade him?

1. He's one of the few "valuable" trade chips this team has. There are few players on this team that would bring the return that Chapman would.

2. This team has holes to the point that it makes having a dominant closer a luxury. imo

3. Despite what people think as a starter he's an unknown commodity. People can project his stuff all they want, but the fact is no one knows what he would or wouldn't be as a starter.

4. With Votto's contract and age, they have a closing window. They have to make moves to contend for a WS now.

[SidneySlicker]

To me he's a much better pitcher than he gets credit for. He wields a fastball as mercilessly as anyone I'll probably ever have the luxury of watching, and it's not just velocity. If consistent work makes his slider a little more reliable, I just can't imagine him being hittable on the mound in any capacity.

That's a huge, huge if. I'm no mlb pitching coach, but I don't see a guy who can do much more than come in and blow 100mph heat. Can he drop a slider every now and then? Sure. Very rarely is it anywhere close to consistent with his slider or any offspeed pitch he tries to throw. I also question his mental makeup as a starter. Does he have the mental fortitude to deal with an ump who starts squeezing him in the 1st or 2nd inning?
Not in my opinion.

[Kc61]

I'd obviously defer to Price as well, but why would they trade him?

1. He's one of the few "valuable" trade chips this team has. There are few players on this team that would bring the return that Chapman would.

2. This team has holes to the point that it makes having a dominant closer a luxury. imo

3. Despite what people think as a starter he's an unknown commodity. People can project his stuff all they want, but the fact is no one knows what he would or wouldn't be as a starter.

4. With Votto's contract and age, they have a closing window. They have to make moves to contend for a WS now.

Number two and four are inconsistent. If you want to make the WS now you need to have a dominant or near dominant bullpen. The Reds won't make the WS with Lecure, Hoover, Simon and a maybe healthy Marshall. And a maybe healthy Broxton.

The late innings count too.

Nothing demoralizes and destroys a team like continual late inning losses.

There is no dominant reliever in the AAA pen ready to come up.

If fans want to posit Chapman as a starter, fine, but you need to replace him and show how the bullpen will function. Without Chapman, right now, as is, it doesn't function.

[Old school 1983]

Number two and four are inconsistent. If you want to make the WS now you need to have a dominant or near dominant bullpen. The Reds won't make the WS with Lecure, Hoover, Simon and a maybe healthy Marshall. And a maybe healthy Broxton.

The late innings count too.

Nothing demoralizes and destroys a team like continual late inning losses.

There is no dominant reliever in the AAA pen ready to come up.

If fans want to posit Chapman as a starter, fine, but you need to replace him and show how the bullpen will function. Without Chapman, right now, as is, it doesn't function.

Agreed. Dominant bullpens lead to championships. The rallying cry on RZ seems to be the early innings count the same as the late, so forget about things later in the game or it's ok to not worry about it or weaken it. Give your team an entire game advantage. Even if chapman goes to the rotation, the reds should exploit the large closer market in free agency so that the dropoff is not as huge to a current member of our pen.

[RedTeamGo!]

Number two and four are inconsistent. If you want to make the WS now you need to have a dominant or near dominant bullpen. The Reds won't make the WS with Lecure, Hoover, Simon and a maybe healthy Marshall. And a maybe healthy Broxton.

The late innings count too.

Nothing demoralizes and destroys a team like continual late inning losses.

There is no dominant reliever in the AAA pen ready to come up.

If fans want to posit Chapman as a starter, fine, but you need to replace him and show how the bullpen will function. Without Chapman, right now, as is, it doesn't function.

I disagree about having a "dominant closer" being a must for a WS.

I think having a hot closer is more important. Let us look at the last couple WS teams.

2013 Boston Red Sox: Koji Uehara - He was dominant in 2013 - BUT he was the THIRD option behind Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanhrahan going into the season.

2012 San Francisco Giants: Sergio Romo - He had a fantastic season, but only 14 saves. The reason being that he was the SECOND option behind Brian Wilson who underwent Tommy John earlier in the season. Yet another example of a closer getting hot at the right time.

2011 St Louis Cardinals: Jason Motte - 9 saves in 2011. The St Louis Cardinals won the 2011 World Series without recording a save. Many people consider the Cardinals organization the smartest run organization in all of baseball. They put absolutely no stock in "dominant closers." They ride a pitcher while he is hot until he is not anymore (see: Edward Mujica - 2013)

2010 San Francisco Giants: Brian Wilson - Fantastic season as a closer. In the playoffs he pitched a grand total of 2.2 innings with 1 save. What a gigantic contribution.

Let us now look at the smartest teams in baseball over the past decade and how they value closers:

Oakland A's: Go through a different closer every year or so. As soon as a closer starts to dominate they trade him for whatever they can get.

St Lous Cardinals: Could not possibly care less about having a dominant closer.

Boston Red Sox: Allowed Jonathan Papelbon to walk after he asked for too much money. Won a world series without him while using their third option as closer.

Tampa Bay Rays: Could not possibly care less about having a dominant closer. Got lucky with taking a flier on Fernando Rodney, they will let him walk this year as he is a free agent and they have absolutely no intention of giving a reliever a large contract.

[RedTeamGo!]

Agreed. Dominant bullpens lead to championships. The rallying cry on RZ seems to be the early innings count the same as the late, so forget about things later in the game or it's ok to not worry about it or weaken it. Give your team an entire game advantage. Even if chapman goes to the rotation, the reds should exploit the large closer market in free agency so that the dropoff is not as huge to a current member of our pen.

And yet the two most dominant closers of the past 5 years cannot get out of the first round of the playoffs (Kimbrel and Chapman) while teams without dominant closers have won the past 3 world series.

[Old school 1983]

I disagree about having a "dominant closer" being a must for a WS.

I think having a hot closer is more important. Let us look at the last couple WS teams.

2013 Boston Red Sox: Koji Uehara - He was dominant in 2013 - BUT he was the THIRD option behind Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanhrahan going into the season.

2012 San Francisco Giants: Sergio Romo - He had a fantastic season, but only 14 saves. The reason being that he was the SECOND option behind Brian Wilson who underwent Tommy John earlier in the season. Yet another example of a closer getting hot at the right time.

2011 St Louis Cardinals: Jason Motte - 9 saves in 2011. The St Louis Cardinals won the 2011 World Series without recording a save. Many people consider the Cardinals organization the smartest run organization in all of baseball. They put absolutely no stock in "dominant closers." They ride a pitcher while he is hot until he is not anymore (see: Edward Mujica - 2013)

2010 San Francisco Giants: Brian Wilson - Fantastic season as a closer. In the playoffs he pitched a grand total of 2.2 innings with 1 save. What a gigantic contribution.

Let us now look at the smartest teams in baseball over the past decade and how they value closers:

Oakland A's: Go through a different closer every year or so. As soon as a closer starts to dominate they trade him for whatever they can get.

St Lous Cardinals: Could not possibly care less about having a dominant closer.

Boston Red Sox: Allowed Jonathan Papelbon to walk after he asked for too much money. Won a world series without him while using their third option as closer.

Tampa Bay Rays: Could not possibly care less about having a dominant closer. Got lucky with taking a flier on Fernando Rodney, they will let him walk this year as he is a free agent and they have absolutely no intention of giving a reliever a large contract.

I'd take average chapman over any of those guys when they were hot with the exception of Wilson. Why hope that a guy gets hot when you can have dominate without a lucky or hot streak? If chapman gets moved I'd be fine with it if it significantly upgrades the team if not the reds are better with chapman. Does anyone really believe that Hoover is even in chapmans class? Sometimes it's not about price tag or value. Sometimes it's about putting the best team on the field. This proposed trade downgrades the pen, downgrades the rotation, and adds a prospect that'll probably become redundant with ours in a year. It doesn't strengthen the team enough to warrant trading chapman. Now if it were a precursor to the reds signing an experienced dominate type closer that's on the market, the moving say cueto or bailey for elite prospect(s) then ok I might bite but on its own, it doesn't do much for me besides weaken the pen rotation and cover two spots out own guys could.

[RedTeamGo!]

I'd take average chapman over any of those guys when they were hot with the exception of Wilson. Why hope that a guy gets hot when you can have dominate without a lucky or hot streak? If chapman gets moved I'd be fine with it if it significantly upgrades the team if not the reds are better with chapman. Does anyone really believe that Hoover is even in chapmans class? Sometimes it's not about price tag or value. Sometimes it's about putting the best team on the field. This proposed trade downgrades the pen, downgrades the rotation, and adds a prospect that'll probably become redundant with ours in a year. It doesn't strengthen the team enough to warrant trading chapman. Now if it were a precursor to the reds signing an experienced dominate type closer that's on the market, the moving say cueto or bailey for elite prospect(s) then ok I might bite but on its own, it doesn't do much for me besides weaken the pen rotation and cover two spots out own guys could.

People on here are severely undervaluing Porcello's 2013 numbers.

In 2013 Porcello had a 3.2 WAR with a 55.3 Ground Ball%

Leake: 1.6 WAR with a 48.7 Ground Ball%

Arroyo: 0.8 WAR with a 44.4 Ground Ball%

Homer: 3.7 WAR with a 46.1 Ground Ball%

Latos: 4.4 WAR with a 45.1 Ground Ball%

Not only is Porcello not a downgrade to the rotation he is an upgrade. With that ground ball rate he would be a PERFECT pitcher for the Reds. He would slot in very nicely in 3 spot behind either Cueto and Latos (if Homer is moved) or 4th behind Cueto, Latos, and Bailey. If Porcello were added to this rotation and performed as he did in 2013 it would be the best rotation in the NL hands down.

Austin Jackson is also being undervalued on redszone. He strikes out a lot, but he also gets on base consistently, is fast and solid defensively.

Castellanos would instantly become the #2 prospect in the organization behind Stephenson and would be the power hitting left fielder the Reds need.

These upgrades come while cutting a bad Brandon Phillips contract.

This trade would be an absolute no brainer for Walt, and would never happen because it is one-sided and not in the way the Reds kool-aid drinkers think.

[SidneySlicker]

I'd take average chapman over any of those guys when they were hot with the exception of Wilson. Why hope that a guy gets hot when you can have dominate without a lucky or hot streak? If chapman gets moved I'd be fine with it if it significantly upgrades the team if not the reds are better with chapman. Does anyone really believe that Hoover is even in chapmans class? Sometimes it's not about price tag or value. Sometimes it's about putting the best team on the field. This proposed trade downgrades the pen, downgrades the rotation, and adds a prospect that'll probably become redundant with ours in a year. It doesn't strengthen the team enough to warrant trading chapman. Now if it were a precursor to the reds signing an experienced dominate type closer that's on the market, the moving say cueto or bailey for elite prospect(s) then ok I might bite but on its own, it doesn't do much for me besides weaken the pen rotation and cover two spots out own guys could.

And this is really where I'm at. I'd love to keep Chapman, but the reality is, you have to give something to get something. This team had major offensive flaws with Choo in our lineup, and assuming they lose him, he's going to leave another huge hole in thier lineup. This team has proven it's not good enough to go all the way with Chapman. I just think people overvalue the closer. What was Jason Grilli before the 2013 season? If giving up Chapman allows us to significantly upgrade the offense, then I'm in. A guy like JJ Hoover can be a servicable closer. imo

[SidneySlicker]

Number two and four are inconsistent. If you want to make the WS now you need to have a dominant or near dominant bullpen. The Reds won't make the WS with Lecure, Hoover, Simon and a maybe healthy Marshall. And a maybe healthy Broxton.

The late innings count too.

Nothing demoralizes and destroys a team like continual late inning losses.

There is no dominant reliever in the AAA pen ready to come up.

If fans want to posit Chapman as a starter, fine, but you need to replace him and show how the bullpen will function. Without Chapman, right now, as is, it doesn't function.

And I'd contend that we aren't goint to make a World Series with our current offense as constructed. The free agent market is a baren wasteland, leaving the only way to upgrade our offense being via trade. Now I'm not just saying you send off Chapman for just any half hearted offer that comes down the pike, but they better be searching out all available options to upgrade this offense.

[RedTeamGo!]

And this is really where I'm at. I'd love to keep Chapman, but the reality is, you to give something to get something. This team had offensive flaws with Choo in our lineup, and assuming they lose him, they'll have another. This team has proven it's not good enough to go all the way with Chapman. I just think people overvalue the closer. What was Jason Grilli before the 2013 season? If giving up Chapman allows us to significantly upgrade the offense, then I'm in.

Grilli was about 5 minutes from being out of baseball. Yet another example of a closer having a good year for beans.

Closer = most overrated position in sports.

If Aroldis Chapman is never going to be a starter (99.9% never going to happen) the Reds need to trade him sooner rather than later.

[SidneySlicker]

Grilli was about 5 minutes from being out of baseball. Yet another example of a closer having a good year for beans.

Closer = most overrated position in sports.

If Aroldis Chapman is never going to be a starter (99.9% never going to happen) the Reds need to trade him sooner rather than later.

I agree. I will add the caveat that it's needs to be the right return.

[kpresidente]

If Porcello's so good, then why is Detroit making this trade? Who fills his spot in their rotation? Who's their CF with Jackson gone? Who's their LF with Castellanos gone? Are they going to open up three holes just to fill one they could fill just by re-signing their own guy? And why do they want Chapman again? He blew more saves than their closer last year.

[RedTeamGo!]

If Porcello's so good, then why is Detroit making this trade? Who fills his spot in their rotation? Who's their CF with Jackson gone? Who's their LF with Castellanos gone? Are they going to open up three holes just to fill one they could fill just by re-signing their own guy? And why do they want Chapman again? He blew more saves than their closer last year.

That is my point - the Tigers would not make this trade. This trade idea was created by a Reds writer.