Matt Holliday

[Benihana]

Most pundits think it's almost a given he will be traded this offseason. He is signed through 2009, and then becomes a free agent who will almost certainly get a monster contract- $100MM at a minimum. Here's why I think he might be playing LF for the Cincinnati Reds very soon.

This move has Jocketty written all over it- it's his trademark. He did it three times in St. Louis with Mark McGwire, Jim Edmonds, and Scott Rolen. He LOVES trading for an established star entering his walk year, and every time he does it, people wonder how the guy was ever on the block in the first place. Oh, and did I mention, he gives up peanuts?

The Reds now have Dunn and Jr. off the books. Castellini and company want a winner very soon, but it is clear that these trades have blown a massive hole in the hull of the offense. In comes Matt Holliday.

Sure it will cost a lot of talent, and surely a lot of cash to re-sign him (which is part of the Jocketty special.) But this is precisely the kind of move that would appease both Jocketty and Castellini at the same time. MLBtraderumors has already noted that a lot of the small market teams are expected to be serious players in the Holliday sweepstakes. But very few teams have both the talent and the money to spend. And I believe the Reds are one of them. Here's my offer (take one from each group):

GROUP A
Joey Votto

GROUP B
Homer Bailey
Daryl Thompson

GROUP C
Chris Valaika
Josh Roenicke
Juan Francisco

Holliday could give this team EXACTLY what it needs, provided they re-sign him. If the Rockies hold out, I'd let them choose one of Henry, Cumberland, or Dorn. Of courses this all assumes the Reds get the 72-hour window to negotiate a LTC with Holliday, but the deal makes too much sense. Imagine this lineup for the next five years:

2B Keppinger/Valaika (unless he's in the deal)
SS Phillips
1B Alonso
LF Holliday
RF Bruce
3B Encarnacion
CF Stubbs/Dickerson
C Hanigan/Castillo


SP Volquez
SP Harang
SP Cueto
SP Arroyo
SP Owings/Masset

They could still try to shop Arroyo for a quality catcher if they needed to free up cash for Holliday. Regardless, this would be the type of move Castellini could make to show everyone he's not as crazy as he looks. Would 6 years, $120 MM be enough? I'd like to find out.

PS If they can't get Holliday, I would be interested in Orlando Hudson as a backup plan.

[RedsManRick]

Not that I'd be opposed to Holliday, but fair warning:

Home: .365/.430/.663, 1.092 OPS, .389 BABIP
Road: .280/.346/.459, .806 OPS, .322 BABIP

Holliday's power disappears on the road, dropping his average and OBP with it. He's still a solid player, but not the superstar he's purported to be. Think Votto or EE.

[Rojo]

Not that I'd be opposed to Holliday, but fair warning:

Home: .365/.430/.663, 1.092 OPS, .389 BABIP
Road: .280/.346/.459, .806 OPS, .322 BABIP

Holliday's power disappears on the road, dropping his average and OBP with it. He's still a solid player, but not the superstar he's purported to be. Think Votto or EE.

I haven't done the math, but it seems like a lot of ex-Coors players put up numbers somewhere between their splits.

[Guacarock]

With the Rockies having inquired about Arroyo, maybe he could be part of the mix, reducing the pool of prospects/youth we might have to surrender for Holliday.

Of course, we would then have to replace Arroyo, but that seems do-able, given the free-agent starting pitchers hitting the market this winter. And some of them do seem like they could be a bit more consistent than Arroyo, more of a solid anchor for our staff, if not ace material. Lowe or Perez come to mind.

[Ltlabner]

Not that I'd be opposed to Holliday, but fair warning:

Home: .365/.430/.663, 1.092 OPS, .389 BABIP
Road: .280/.346/.459, .806 OPS, .322 BABIP

Holliday's power disappears on the road, dropping his average and OBP with it. He's still a solid player, but not the superstar he's purported to be. Think Votto or EE.

# YEAR  NAME            AGE PA   EqA  OBP  SLG  VORP  RAR   RAP 
1. 2008 Matt Holliday   28  494 .333 .431 .597  59.9  54.3  34.4 
6. 2008 Alfonso Soriano 30  354 .294 .339 .557  24.4  25.0   8.6 
7. 2008 Adam Dunn       28  464 .302 .373 .528  24.1  36.4  15.7

Holliday would provide significant bump in power and production over Dunner*

I included Soriano's numbers because I'm always amazed at how close to Dunn in production he is.


* That significant bump is provided that Coors Field doesn't provide a big smoke and mirrors act as RMR pointed out.

# YEAR  NAME              AGE  PA   EqA  OBP  SLG
1. 2008 Matt Holliday      28  494 .333 .431 .597
Road Splits provided by RMR             .346 .459
4. 2008 Edwin Encarnacion  25  451 .278 .335 .479 
5. 2008 Joey Votto         24  431 .271 .343 .445

So just looking at the tradional OBP/SLG and EqA (measure of total offensive output, including baserunning, adjusted for time, park, league, etc. It's set up to look like BA). Holliday is heads and shoulders above Votto & EE.

But RMR is right that when you just look at the road splits, he's suddenly very human (not that Votto and EE are bad, mind you). If his contract money isn't stupid and its only for a year, I wouldn't be totally opposed, but I don't think you can expect to the the line posted above at GABP.

[Highlifeman21]

With the Rockies having inquired about Arroyo, maybe he could be part of the mix, reducing the pool of prospects/youth we might have to surrender for Holliday.

Of course, we would then have to replace Arroyo, but that seems do-able, given the free-agent starting pitchers hitting the market this winter. And some of them do seem like they could be a bit more consistent than Arroyo, more of a solid anchor for our staff, if not ace material. Lowe or Perez come to mind.

Replacing Arroyo would be the least of my worries if we somehow stole Holliday from the Rockies in a trade that involved Arroyo becoming a Rockie.

[flyer85]

another Coors illusion ... stay away

[RedsManRick]

If you can get him Arroyo and a few prospects, I'd be all over it. But you can bet the Rockies are going to want a Teixeira like return -- I just don't see it happening.

[Falls City Beer]

I haven't done the math, but it seems like a lot of ex-Coors players put up numbers somewhere between their splits.

Pitchers as well. The Coors effect is seldom as drastic as the splits might have you believe.

[flyer85]

The Rocks and Holliday think he's a star and he may well be playing 81 games at Cooors but he isn't close to that level anywhere else ... buyer beware

[jojo]

Not to sound like a broken record but I'd rather have Winn for a year given what it would take to acquire either player.

[Falls City Beer]

Not to sound like a broken record but I'd rather have Winn for a year given what it would take to acquire either player.

I'm guessing folks are thinking longer term than one year, though. IMO.

[RedsManRick]

Not to sound like a broken record but I'd rather have Winn for a year given what it would take to acquire either player.

I was just thinking the exact same thing. I just didn't want to through the exercise of defending it...

The argument of course is for Holliday to be Jocketty's next Edmonds. The difference of course is that Jocketty bought low with Edmonds and would be buying high on Holliday.

[VR]

If the park adjusted #'s work, I'd give the entire list nee Roenicke for Holladay.

[jojo]

I'm guessing folks are thinking longer term than one year, though. IMO.

It'll likely require a big initial investment in order to hope you can resign him.