Bronson Arroyo - one win from 100

[*BaseClogger*]

Arroyo had just posted back to back average-above average seasons in the AL, was entering his prime, and was going from the AL to the NL. He would seem like a prime candidate to improve. He had a 4.19 ERA in Boston and has a 4.02 ERA in Cincinnati. I don't think he made some shocking jump.

You're right. I guess it just seems weird because he hadn't established a track record as being one of those rare guys who break the system and can out-pitch their stuff. Maybe Reds scouts saw that, who knows...

[reds44]

If you read the thread I think the reaction had a lot to do with the Reds acquiring "another third or fourth starter" and when Reds fans thought third or fourth starter they thought Dave Williams, Eric Milton, Ramon Ortiz, which they then lumped Arroyo in with.

The other guys weren't third or fourth starters, they sucked. Arroyo is probably a third starter.

[Mutaman]

Arroyo is probably a third starter.

A third starter who can go out on the road in the postseason and totally shut down the eventual world champions. A warrior. A guy who answers every call.

[Patrick Bateman]

You're right. I guess it just seems weird because he hadn't established a track record as being one of those rare guys who break the system and can out-pitch their stuff. Maybe Reds scouts saw that, who knows...

It seemed that M2 was essentially able to do this, as he would have been quite familiar with Arroyo, as he lives in Boston.

Reading that thread, he was the one person who made a pretty solid case as to why Arroyo had a real chance to improve on his numbers while not shying away from Arroyo's horried K rate. It seemed that his thought that Arroyo;s stuff plummeted midway through his first 200 inning season was correct (as his K rate in the first half of the season ended up being consistent with his Reds career K rate), while the second half plummet looked to be more of an endurance developmental thing.

I think there is something to learn from that case. Even now adays if the Reds acquired a guy with a 4/9 K rate, the board would be up in arms (and they probably should be), but the fact of the matter is that context matters, and in Arroyo's case, there was a lot of developmental context that was completely overlooked, and caused most people here to overlook some important forward thinking facts about Arroyo's potential.

It's important, I think, to understand why things happen. Simply looking at the last few years' stats is always the first step we to take in analyzing a player's performance, but that's simply not enough to make an informed analysis. Obviously Arroyo is an exception of sorts, but Redszone as a whole got tricked by stopping at step one, and not doing enough to understand what actually happened. In hindsight, Arroyo could have gone either way, but there was definite potential in his arm that was clearly overlooked.

Plus, I think people forget just how horrid Wily Mo's plate discpline and fielding always was.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Peter Gammons tweeted Arroyo leads the NL in wins and innings pitched since the Reds acquired him for Pena.

Also, this is a fun read:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44013

whew! I was worried, but my only contribution to that 36 page thread is:

"I must be one of the few that likes this trade."

And that thread is a perfect example of the value M2 provides to the board.

[medford]

fun flipping thru that. The thing that I'm always struck by anytime I look back at old trade discussions is how relatively few prospects that are mention amount to anything more than a replacement player. There were a lot of "altrnatives" that people thru out as guys the Reds should have targetted over Arroyo. Of the prospects, only Jeff Francis and Faustato Carmona amounted to anything, the rest of the names mentioned don't even ring a bell, telling me they were likely not much more than "cup of coffee" type guys. Moral of the story, guys w/ track records and expierence in the majors, while still in their prime are worth more than prospects a large majority of the time; far too few prospects actually live up to their billing.

[KittyDuran]

Peter Gammons tweeted Arroyo leads the NL in wins and innings pitched since the Reds acquired him for Pena.

Also, this is a fun read:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44013

at the "likes" some of the posts are getting now...

[Tom Servo]

There were a lot of "altrnatives" that people thru out as guys the Reds should have targetted over Arroyo. Of the prospects, only Jeff Francis and Faustato Carmona amounted to anything, the rest of the names mentioned don't even ring a bell, telling me they were likely not much more than "cup of coffee" type guys. .

I recognized all names (even the immortal Ryan Shealy) except for Cesar Carrillo, who totally stumped me. Turns out he was a was a 2005 first rounder who started 3 games for the Padres in 2009.

[Caveat Emperor]

whew! I was worried, but my only contribution to that 36 page thread is:

"I must be one of the few that likes this trade."

And that thread is a perfect example of the value M2 provides to the board.

Cyclone too -- dude killed it dead on when he said that WMP simply didn't have the plate discipline skills to be a successful big leaguer.

There are a lot of skills young players can develop, but if you hit the bigs without the ability to judge balls and strikes and/or take a walk you're probably not likely to develop them going forward.

[Patrick Bateman]

at the "likes" some of the posts are getting now...

I like the one suggesting the Reds needed to get Hee Seop Choi. Not that was really a bad idea or antyhing. Choi had a good pedigree and some early success in the majors. But he fell off the cliff fast, and probably didn't do one good thing after it was suggested the Reds try to acquire him. In the end, the Reds have had no problem at 1st base between Hatteberg and Votto.

Baseball is a funny sport. Players with the floor of Joe Carter apparently also have a basement below their basement, and players with no upside, no stuff, and a bottomed out K rate can apparently lead professional leagues in wins over very long periods of time.

[Tom Servo]

The further into the thread you get, the more Hatteberg gets absolutely buried. And it turns out he had the two most productive years of his career for us in 2006 and 2007.

[RedlegJake]

It was interesting to re-visit that thread. More improtant, though, with Arroyo likely in his last season as a Red, is to recognize this guy's contributions and durability. Sure, he hasn;t been a #1 but he's a heckuva #3 and has answered the bell start after start, even when physically subpar (2011 all season). No excuses, no calling out his teammates for errors or lack of support, no fear no matter who he faces, Bronson just goes out and often as not, surprises us with his pitching chops. He is a master of pitching with one's head and heart. I enjoy watching him pitch more than the flamethrowers and exceptionally talented - he epitomizes maxxing one's capabilities. I know that a qualifying offer and taking a pick is the smartest route but I for one will really miss watching him pitch from every arm angle imaginable, confusing and befuddling guys with smarts and moxie. I just hope he goes to an AL team because he is exactly the type of pitcher that would give the Reds absolute fits.

[reds44]

A third starter who can go out on the road in the postseason and totally shut down the eventual world champions. A warrior. A guy who answers every call.

Absolutely. I love Arroyo. Didn't mean it as a slight to him in any way.

[OnBaseMachine]

I absolutely overreacted to the Arroyo trade. I've admitted it many of times. IIRC, a few days later I stated I liked the trade after I gave it thought. Bronson has been a great Red. He should be in the Reds Hall of Fame. He's a fun guy to watch. I'll miss him next year. I still think Krivsky was a decent GM.

Someone should bump one of the Elizardo Ramirez threads.

[reds44]

I absolutely overreacted to the Arroyo trade. I've admitted it many of times. IIRC, a few days later I stated I liked the trade after I gave it thought. Bronson has been a great Red. He should be in the Reds Hall of Fame. He's a fun guy to watch. I'll miss him next year. I still think Krivsky was a decent GM.

Someone should bump one of the Elizardo Ramirez threads.

I was so wrong about Elizardo I got banned for telling you to shut up.

I wasn't trying to make anybody look bad. I honestly was afraid of what I said until I actually read the thread. I just thought it was entertaining.