Well since it's pretty much a lock that we are going to play Philly in the NLDS, which Reds Rotation would you go with?
Well since it's pretty much a lock that we are going to play Philly in the NLDS, which Reds Rotation would you go with?
Bronson and Wood 1 and 2 in philly.
If we are down 0-2 id through Volquez, if its 1-1 or 2-0 us Id throw Cueto.
Then obvioulsy which ever one doesnt pitch 3 pitches 4.
So Bron, Wood, Cueto Volquez or Bron, Wood, Volquez, Cueto.
I'm throwing Wood out there Game 1. He pretty much shut the Phillies down and I think he's capable of doing it again. Gives us the best chance at taking Game 1 IMO.
none of the above
This will not happen because he has "earned it" but I would not use Arroyo vs the Phillies, he has a .305 BBA against that lineup
You only need 3 starters so I go with Cueto/Wood/Volquez. I start Wood in the 2nd game because if you lose the 1st then the 2nd is a must win. If you win the 1st with Cueto then you can pretty much put the series away by winning the 2nd game
Cueto's BAA .224
Wood's BAA .046
Volquez's BAA .238
The Phillies are going with 3 starters if the Reds do not want to use Cueto on short rest then use Arroyo because the Phillies OWN Homer (.350 BAA)
The Phillies have already stated they are starting the Roys in the 1st 2 games, and the Reds do very well against the Roys
.283 avg vs Halladay
.290 avg vs Oswalt (which includes Edmond's .216 in 51 AB and he will not be on the roster)
What Does Bronson bring to the table the others don't? Experience, and that trumps those other numbers. In game 1 I want the pitcher out there with the most experience and playoff experience along with the talent he brings.Originally Posted by Krawhitham
Im assuming you mean the reds do very well against the roys this year...
Because goign into this year we were like 1 for 25 against Oswalt. He owned us for years, but we got to him this year, hopefully we can continue that.
As for Halladay we had one good game against him where we got 4 runs, he also pitched 9 scoreless innings against us in the Wood perfect game, game. So I dont know if id say we do very well against the roys, but we'll see.
Tough decisions.
I would give the first start to Arroyo, because he has the most experience and he is the most consistent.
Then Cueto, then Volquez.
Bailey is pitching well enough, but he is too young to know how he will respond to the postseason. I'm fine with using him in long relief if Cueto or Volquez have one of their early innings meltdowns.
Ditto for Wood, except he has pitched a lot of innings for a prospect and he is kind of short on stuff. He looked very good vrs. Philly for one game this year so I would keep that in mind.
We need them all to pitch like they have been, with our offense looking so weak recently.
At the moment it looks like the Reds most likely scenario is to face the Phillies. Everyone seems to think that the best way to go against the Phils is to simply run lefties out there. However I think a lot of that comes from when players like Victorino/Utley/Rollins were out of the lineup. Now it comes to breaking down myths.
The Phils numbers against RHP and LHP
LHP: .267/.336/.426/.762
RHP: .257/.329/.408/.737
So in essence it isn't a huge difference one way or the other, and as a team they actually fair slightly better against LHP.
So individually where are the biggest splits. Believe it or not, Carlos Ruiz is actually a player who could be key, and he is a much different player against RHP.
LHP: .330/.434/.514/.948
RHP: .284/.379/.412/.791
Having a player like Ruiz be a .948 OPS guy hitting in the 8-hole is tough, and that is exactly the case when looking at him against a lefty.
Also ironically enough, Chase Utley is far, far better against LHP. In fact this year his splits aren't even close.
LHP: .284/.411/.575/.986
RHP: .276/.380/.394/.774
Maybe the biggest key to the Phils offense is Shane Victorino. Victorino is the engine for the offense, and when he gets on, that makes life a lot easier for the rest of the big hitters. Here is a look at his numbers
LHP: .321/.379/.541/.920
RHP: .236/.309/.390/.699
In fact by throwing a lefty out there, the only two players who you significantly impact would be Placido Polanco and Raul Ibanez, and only Ibanez's numbers would scare a pitcher in a situation.
Here are Polanco's numbers
LHP: .282/.326/.346/.672
RHP: .304/.346/.404/.750
Here are Ibanez's numbers
LHP: .263/.305/.417/.722
RHP: .280/.380/.462/.842
With Jason Werth and Ryan Howard, both hit righties a little bit harder than lefties, but the numbers are very good for both against righties and lefties, so it isn't like all of the sudden you are neutralizing a player by running a righty or a lefty out there. Now lefty specialists can tie Howard in knots, but that is a whole different sub-category that we aren't dealing with in this matter.
If running a lefty out there, you effective hurt guys like Raul Ibanez and Placido Polanco, but you make Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, and Shane Victorino much better players. I think a smart righty might be able to pitch around Ibanez if needed, and take his chances with a guy like Polanco or Ruiz who are both sub .800 OPS guys against RHP.
Now that leads to the question of how would the Reds set things up assuming games one and two are in Philadelphia. When looking at this, a lot has to be considered. Some of the Reds pitchers have unbelieveable splits between home and road, and then of course how they have fared versus the Phillies, etc.
I will go about this in alphabetical order....
Bronson Arroyo
HOME: 6-5, 4.24 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.64 K/9IP
ROAD: 10-5, 3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 5.37 K/9IP
Versus LHH: .287/.336/.456/.792
Versus RHH: .185/.251/.328/.579
NO APPERANCES VERSUS PHILLY
Obviously this indicates that Bronson is a much, much better pitcher on the road than he is at home. He allows less people on base, strikes out more, and just flat out is better. What factors go into that exactly, I don't know, but the fact remains he has been much better away from GABP. Of course the numbers also show that Bronson gets crushed by lefties as opposed to righties, but as noted above, the Phillies offense in that way isn't quite like some make it out to be.
Johnny Cueto
HOME: 6-3, 3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.06 K/9IP
ROAD: 6-4, 4.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.30 K/9IP
Versus LHH: .234/.306/.404/.710
Versus RHH: .276/.329/.412/.741
Pitched two times against the Phillies
@PHI: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 K, 2 BB, 1.29 ERA
GABP: 8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 K, 2 BB, 1.12 ERA
With Cueto he is significantly better at home. Of course the disaster of a start @MIL could play into those numbers, but all around he has just been far more dominant at GABP, and I think he is just more comfortable at home. Also obviously he has been absoutely nails against the Phils all season, and did it home and road. Righties hit him slightly better, but honestly those splits are very close, and really luck as much as anything might account for any difference.
Edinson Volquez
HOME: 3-2, 3.23 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 11.54 K/9IP
ROAD: 1-1, 6.08 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 6.46 K/9IP
Versus LHH: .229/.377/.314/.691
Versus RHH: .273/.338/.438/.776
NO APPEARNCES VERSUS PHILLY
Here is another player who is a lot better at home. In fact he has been borderline dominant at GABP this season, especially recently. Once again one bad start @SF might skew the numbers, but still the K's show his dominance, and obviously he is very comfortable in GABP. Also he has shown he is much tougher against lefties than righties. That probably has to do with his change up, but without taking a closer look, it is tough to know for sure.
Travis Wood
HOME: 0-2, 3.94 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 10.125 K/9IP
ROAD: 5-2, 3.36 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 6.97 K/9IP
Versus LHH: .143/.217/.238/.455
Versus RHH: .245/.294/.362/.657
@PHI: 9 IP, 1 H, 8 K, 0 BB, 0.00 ERA
With Wood, he looks a lot better on the road. Now he hasn't pitched very much at home, so it might be a bit of an unfair comparison, but overall his road numbers are excellent. Add in the fact that he was nails against the Phils in Philadelphia, and that is something that has to be taken into account. Lefties flat out can't hit Wood at all, and righties haven't been much better.
With all of this information, here is how I would set up my rotation going into a series against the Phillies.
1. Bronson Arroyo (He pitches better away from home, and might be able to get the best of a guy like Werth, while also the numbers suggest Rollins/Ruiz/Victorino aren't going to be nearly as effective. If he can manage to work around Ibanez and get to those other guys, he could limit the Phils offense somewhat. Also the Phils haven't seen him this year, and while they have seen him in the past, maybe it is a little something to go with that could help. Beyond that he is matched up against Halladay, and Bronson won't have any fear in that situation. He will go out there the same way, and with his experience I just like that in a game one setting.)
2. Travis Wood (He has been a much better pitcher away from GABP. Also it has to be good karma and a sense of confidence to know he almost threw a perfect game there. Beyond that quite honestly his numbers indicate he has been the best pitcher for the Reds over about a two month span. Hopefully he could shut down Howard/Ibanez, and then get some good luck against the other guys. While starting a rookie in a potential must win probably doesn't give anybody a warm fuzzy feeling, he seems to me to give the team the best chance to win on the road.
3. Johnny Cueto (The fact that he has been much better at home says something, and honestly numbers wise over the course of the year he has been the best starter. If it is a 1-1 series or even 0-2, having your best out there is a great advantage. He pitched well against the Phils at GABP earlier in the year, and also been stingy to both righties and lefties. In a game where the season could be on the line, it just seems like Cueto would be the guy you want along with Arroyo, and Arroyo wouldn't be ready to pitch again, so this seems like the best scenario.)
4. Edinson Volquez (The Reds could choose to only go with three starters, but I think they would still want four guys to rotate even though it is an eight day series. Volquez gets this nod over Bailey because he has been dominant lately, and Bailey throws BP to the Phils. Beyond that, Volquez would be matched up with Halladay in this game. In terms of raw stuff, Volquez is the best that the Reds can run out there. If the Reds have a chance to clinch, or avoid elimination against a possible Cy Young pitcher, Volquez is the one on the staff who has the best chance to match him pitch for pitch.)
5. TBD (It could be Arroyo or it could be Wood. It would depend on how games one and two go. If Arroyo fairs good to excellent he will get the ball, but Wood would be on regular rest, and if he shuts the Phils down again, it would give Dusty the option of going with him in the elimination game. This game would be against Oswalt who the Reds have knocked around this season, that bodes well, but still the pitcher could be an x-factor based on how things went earlier in the season)
homer won't make the roster !
how does homer NOT make the roster?
The Red Sox pitched guys like Tim Wakefield and Ramiro Mendoza before Bronson in the playoffs for a reason. Power pitchers are better suited for the playoffs and I believe the Phillies will shell Bronson in his start there. While Wakefield isn't a power pitcher, he is a knuckleballer so he's an unorthodox type of starter.
You all can speculate...but i can already tell you Dusty's rotation:
Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Wood
In that order...he'll go with season results and loyalty over stats vs. the opponent...
Then Wood should go no. 1 against the Phils. Look at Woods numbers against them and against teams with strong left handed hitters.
I think you're 100% correct. He won't pitch Wood and leave the veterans on the bench. But I think he should have a quick trigger if any one of them gets in trouble early.
I am surprised that nobody has suggested a 3 man rotation. The schedule sets up for the game 1 starter to come back in game 4 on full rest.
Should be:
Arroyo
Wood
Cueto
Volquez and Bailey in pen to jump in long relief at first sign of trouble.
But it probably won't be...
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