In a Sellers Market, the Time is Now

[Edskin]

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm pretty convinced that the ship has sailed on the 2011 season. I think we are toast. Neither the tangible or intangible aspects are working in our favor. We are under .500 and in 4th place in he worst division in baseball.

Well over half of MLB is still in "contention" an many teams may be itchy to add some help, but there seem to be few sellers right now to meet that demand.

The Reds could put themselves in a position of power by making some of our guys available.

Cordero is first on my list by a mile. He Definitley has value for contending teams and he has no future in Cincy. This is by far the most obvious move to make. I say do it now before other bullpen options come available in late July.

Hernandez/Hanigan would also be on my immediate list. I'd expect a decent but not spectacular return.

I'd dangle Gomes/Cairo for whatever you can get.

I'd consider dealing Massett and Arroyo as well.

And here is where I may cause some of you a heart attack...
I'd test the waters on Votto. Nothing short of Herschel Walker-esque return would satisfy me there. But I'd throw it out there. I am operating under the assumption that we have him for the next two years and the next two years only. And we have Alonso to take his place... Votto may very well garner a plethera of MLB ready talent. Just saying, I'd explore it.

I'd say similar things about BP, but I don't see a viable 2B option in the organization right now to make me feel comfortable about that.

And Rolen would cleary be on my list as well....

I'm ready to start thinking 2012 and I think we can get a jump on it of we acted now.

[redsfaninbsg]

What reason would anybody have to go to the games if this occurred? Four games out in the worst division in baseball means throwing the towel in on July 6th? Color me confused.

[PuffyPig]

Zero chance of being sellers being 4 games out before the all star break.

Masset may well be our closer next year. No reason to dump him even if we aren't in contention.

Trade Votto? That actually might be OK, as in any trade is OK if the return is great.

But since it's taken us so long to become contenders, I doubt we trade our best player 2.5 years before he's a FA.

When you give up you generally trade your FA's to be. Not dump anyone of value.

[OldXOhio]

I've come around to this type of thinking except I would limit the trade offerings to the following: Cordero, Lewis, Hernandez, Wood. I think Cairo, Masset, Rolen, Hanigan, Arroyo can all be valuable members of the team going forward.

The Reds have been a .500 team for the better part of 90% of the last two seasons. If the FO is not willing to make material upgrades to the rotation and to certain everyday positions, then start selling for 2012. The fanbase will understand if it's part of a well thought out plan to improve.

[oneupper]

While I also think that 2011 REDS are going nowhere, selling makes sense only if the return is very good.

Spare parts like Cairo, Lewis, Hernandez and Hannigan. Sure.
Cordero. Yep. But it won't fly politically.
Gomes, Rolen. Sure. But who wants them?
Phillips would be a guy to sell because of the money he makes and is going to make in 2012 and beyond.
Might as well trade Heisey too, if we're not going to use him.

[Caveat Emperor]

The doom and gloom on this board is almost laughable. The team isn't playing great baseball, but they're still hovering around ~.500 and are only 4 games out of first. They've got a legit hammer going every 5th day in Cueto, Leake & Bailey are both pitching quality baseball, and Arroyo has a reputation as a 2nd half guy.

A lot of people around here need to seriously relax. This isn't football -- they play 162 games, and every one of them counts.

[reds44]

The doom and gloom on this board is almost laughable. The team isn't playing great baseball, but they're still hovering around ~.500 and are only 4 games out of first. They've got a legit hammer going every 5th day in Cueto, Leake & Bailey are both pitching quality baseball, and Arroyo has a reputation as a 2nd half guy.

A lot of people around here need to seriously relax. This isn't football -- they play 162 games, and every one of them counts.

The Reds are in 4th place and the only reason they are 4 out is because of how bad the division is. Saying the Reds should be sellers is way over the top, but this is not a good baseball team right now.

[HeatherC1212]

The doom and gloom on this board is almost laughable. The team isn't playing great baseball, but they're still hovering around ~.500 and are only 4 games out of first. They've got a legit hammer going every 5th day in Cueto, Leake & Bailey are both pitching quality baseball, and Arroyo has a reputation as a 2nd half guy.

A lot of people around here need to seriously relax. This isn't football -- they play 162 games, and every one of them counts.

Quoted for truth.

[PuffyPig]

The Reds have been a .500 team for the better part of 90% of the last two seasons.

So have the Cards and the Brewers.

[Caveat Emperor]

The Reds are in 4th place and the only reason they are 4 out is because of how bad the division is. Saying the Reds should be sellers is way over the top, but this is not a good baseball team right now.

They're playing mediocre ball, but they're actually not a bad team. Before last night's EV special, they had the 3rd best Run Differential in the NL. They're losing a lot of 1-run games. That's like BABIP -- it's going to even out in the long run. In fact, if you did even it out, the Reds would probably be in 1st place right now.

They're one good 10-day stretch away from being in first place. I think people need to step back and look at the big picture a little. I'm prepared to trust Walt (rememebr him? guy who built the Cardinals franchise? won a WS? brought the playoffs back to Cincinnati for the first time since Hootie and the Blowfish stopped being cool?) that he'll get things righted and have the team contending deep into September.

For now, everyone just needs to take a deep breath. There is plenty of baseball left to be played this year.

[westofyou]

The doom and gloom on this board is almost laughable. The team isn't playing great baseball, but they're still hovering around ~.500 and are only 4 games out of first. They've got a legit hammer going every 5th day in Cueto, Leake & Bailey are both pitching quality baseball, and Arroyo has a reputation as a 2nd half guy.

A lot of people around here need to seriously relax. This isn't football -- they play 162 games, and every one of them counts.

Patience is not a internet age tool, and baseball is a game that demands never getting too high nor too low.

[bucksfan2]

They're playing mediocre ball, but they're actually not a bad team. Before last night's EV special, they had the 3rd best Run Differential in the NL. They're losing a lot of 1-run games. That's like BABIP -- it's going to even out in the long run. In fact, if you did even it out, the Reds would probably be in 1st place right now.

They're one good 10-day stretch away from being in first place. I think people need to step back and look at the big picture a little. I'm prepared to trust Walt (rememebr him? guy who built the Cardinals franchise? won a WS? brought the playoffs back to Cincinnati for the first time since Hootie and the Blowfish stopped being cool?) that he'll get things righted and have the team contending deep into September.

For now, everyone just needs to take a deep breath. There is plenty of baseball left to be played this year.

I keep telling myself that the Reds are doing what good teams do. For a large part of the season they play around .500 ball and have a couple of 10-20 game streaks that pile up the wins. For the better half of a month they have been a frustrating team that has been spinning their wheels. They have hovered around the .500 mark on a daily basis. If they get a 9-1 or 15-5 stretch that could catapult them to the catbird seat in the Central. I guess my major concern will all of this is whether or not they can play with the consistency to get it done over the course of a couple of weeks.

[Guacarock]

It's too early to throw in the towel, but by the same token, we're not looking like a team that ought to go all out for this season. Perhaps our approach should mirror that of the Rays, who are already positioning themselves to be both selective buyers and sellers in 2011. They have the third best record in the AL, but the two teams with better records, the Yankees and Red Sox, share their same division, decreasing the odds that the Rays are playoff-bound this year.

Our record isn't as great -- we're a more erratic and overall less productive team than the Rays -- but our situation is somewhat comparable. The closer we get to the trading deadline and continue to look up at 2-3 opposing teams in our own division, the less likely we are playoff-bound. Still, we're close enough that we ought to make selective moves to improve, starting with a few AAA callups now to see if those might help us spark the team out of its lethargy. If we start stringing together more wins than losses, then we go outside our system, making a strategic trade or two aimed at improving our chances to compete in the second half.

But if our AAA callups and strategic trades don't budge the needle, then we have to remain open about shifting our approach and selling off veteran players instead. A fire sale is the last thing we should do, but if we can get value back by, say, trading Hernandez to the Giants ahead of July 31, we have to consider that. We do have Mesoraco to plug that gap. Similarly, Cairo could be moved and replaced by Frazier, or Lewis, with Hermida taking his spot on the roster.

I would not, however, entertain any offers for Cordero until it became clear that our cause was hopeless. Given his steep salary, there's every chance he could be moved in late August to a contender, if we were ready to wave the white flag by then. Similarly, this is not at all the right time to be shopping Votto. He should only be dealt for a blockbuster return, and those kinds of mega-deals are usually off-season affairs, not mid-season fixes.

[MikeS21]

I think it is WAY too early to punt the season. The Reds are in 4th place, no doubt. But the top three teams are, and have been, playing over their heads all season. The Cards and Pirates will fade, and the Reds and Brewers will float to the top.

[OldXOhio]

I think it is WAY too early to punt the season. The Reds are in 4th place, no doubt. But the top three teams are, and have been, playing over their heads all season. The Cards and Pirates will fade, and the Reds and Brewers will float to the top.

Why exactly will the Cards fade again?