Looking at our division

[mth123]

A lot could change and the Cards may fortify the staff, but right now I'd say:

1. Reds 95 Wins
2. Cards 85 Wins
3. Brewers 80 Wins
4. Pirates 78 Wins
5. Cubs 71 Wins

[Tom Servo]

I would not sleep on the Cardinals, at all.

[757690]

I would not sleep on the Cardinals, at all.

Maybe the magic is still there, but one thing to remember is that the creator of the magic was Jocketty, and he's been gone for 5 years now. The current team still has remnants of Jocketty (Holiday, Carpenter, Freese, Molina, etc.) but as time goes on, Jocketty's signature continues to fade, as does the magic.

The Cardinals have been on a steady decline since he left. It's been disguised by the luckiest year in the history of the sport in 2011, but talent wise the Cards keep getting worse.

[RedsfaninMT]

Maybe the magic is still there, but one thing to remember is that the creator of the magic was Jocketty, and he's been gone for 5 years now. The current team still has remnants of Jocketty (Holiday, Carpenter, Freese, Molina, etc.) but as time goes on, Jocketty's signature continues to fade, as does the magic.

The Cardinals have been on a steady decline since he left. It's been disguised by the luckiest year in the history of the sport in 2011, but talent wise the Cards keep getting worse.

I wish the Reds would keep getting worse like that. Winning the World Series, then the following year missing it by one game is the kind of luck that makes for happy fans.

That said, I am betting on a downturn by Carpenter given his age and injuries, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Garcia continue to struggle. But Wainwright looks like he's back and Miller could be the real deal. They are definitely weak up the middle, but I expect it to be fight the whole year.

[PuffyPig]

Maybe the magic is still there, but one thing to remember is that the creator of the magic was Jocketty, and he's been gone for 5 years now. The current team still has remnants of Jocketty (Holiday, Carpenter, Freese, Molina, etc.) but as time goes on, Jocketty's signature continues to fade, as does the magic.

The Cardinals have been on a steady decline since he left. It's been disguised by the luckiest year in the history of the sport in 2011, but talent wise the Cards keep getting worse.

Sure their name players are getting old, but they have a ton of young, elite talent on the way. I woudln't count them out so quickly.

[vaticanplum]

Pirates - They upgraded their catcher position and that's it. Their rotation is a series of question marks after A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez. They are basically the same team they were that lost all those games in August/September just with a better catcher. Can't write them off completely, but at some point they are going to have to actually prove they can have a winning season.

I think the Pirates are going to trade Hanrahan and move Grilli into the closer spot. In theory this is a smart move, but only depending on what they get in return. If it's a matter of them having the balls to recognize that Hanrahan is declining, and they get a good return on him before he really nosedives, they could fill some holes. If it's a matter of dumping his salary in his contract year, as the media keeps playing it up to be, then the Pirates' management is as dumb and non-committal as ever.

That's not going to be enough for them on its own, though.

[Chip R]

The Cards were plenty good last year, actually besting us in run differential.

With a number of decent young pitching, they aren't going away anytime soon.

I agree. I really like their young pitching and while Wainwright and Garcia have had their ups and downs, by and large they are really good pitchers. Carpenter is Carpenter and I wouldn't count him out no matter how much we wish he would fall on his face.

[WildcatFan]

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see St. Louis win 95 games. That rotation has potential to be top 5 in baseball, and we all know they're going to hit. I think a big key to their offense is Beltran. If he can put up first-half numbers all year, the 1-5 is going to be really, really good.

[REDREAD]

If there is one thing the Cards are not, it's an average team.

They have some extremely high end prospects like Taveras, and some unusually high end pitching propsects.

Their team is pretty much complete and there is no reason why the Reds and the Casds should not be battling for the division all year, with the loser being a wild card team.

I agree with you.
Wainwright will be another year removed from TJ surgery.
They are loaded with young good pitching, they can easily absorb Lohse leaving.
I'm not sure how close Taveras is to the big leagues, but anyhow, they have chips to make a big move if they want to. In fact, I will be surprised if they don't add a major player (either a bat or a pitcher to replace Lohse) before opening day.

[hebroncougar]

It'll be interesting to see if losing McGwire as hitting coach affects STL hitters.

[MikeThierry]

Maybe the magic is still there, but one thing to remember is that the creator of the magic was Jocketty, and he's been gone for 5 years now. The current team still has remnants of Jocketty (Holiday, Carpenter, Freese, Molina, etc.) but as time goes on, Jocketty's signature continues to fade, as does the magic.

The Cardinals have been on a steady decline since he left. It's been disguised by the luckiest year in the history of the sport in 2011, but talent wise the Cards keep getting worse.

I really don't think you're giving John Mozeliak enough credit here. When they won it back in 2011, the Cardinals used something like 12 rookies. Most of their current team was designed by John Mozeliak (only Molina and Chris Carpenter are the high impact players left from Walt). Mo took a farm system that was a joke and made it into a top 5 farm system. Most ratings systems have the Cards system as a top 5 system and if they aren't, they're in the top ten.

Secondly, do not overlook the Taveras/Wong effect. I know right now Daniel Descalso is listed as the starting 2B but I have a feeling that is going to change really quick. Kolten Wong is arguably the best 2B prospect in baseball and it wouldn't shock me if he grabbed the job this spring or at least makes some sort of impact during the season. If Beltran gets injured, it brings up so many different options. They could bring Taveras up which most scouts agree is close to major league ready right now. He is by far the best hitting prospect in the NL. It could activate Matt Adams and move Craig to right field. Yes, you can expect injuries but they have players in their system that can make an impact. Is it risky to rely on young talent but the kind of talent they have, it's high impact high quality guys.

Secondly, their bullpen will be SIGNIFICANTLY better than last season. Their starting rotation wasn't a problem last year. They actually had a better starting rotation than the Reds, if you go by statistics. The problem was the middle inning relief. Mujica will be in St. Louis at the start of this year. He was dominant with the Cardinals. Trevor Rosenthal will be at least in the bullpen. He's almost unhittable. I do worry about losing Lohse but I look for Carpenter to give the Cardinals adequate production and I look for Wainwright to be better his second year off of an injury. The other thing about Waino is that he will be looking for a huge payday so that is motivation enough to where I think he will be good this year. The wild card will be the last starting position. There are a number of things they could do there. Miller is the heads on favorite to take that spot. Joe Kelly did a pretty good job last year and he has a shot. They might even start Rosenthal, who has dominant stuff. If they come close to the kind of starting pitching they got last year with an improved bullpen, they could potentially win more games than they did last season.

[MikeThierry]

One other thing on this. Mo has had a recent history of seeing where his club is and making moves to adjust. His mid-season moves was the single reason why the Cards won in 2011 and was the reason why they made the playoffs last year. I wouldn't be shocked if the SS position continues to be a black hole for the Cards, Mo moves some of his chips for a high impact SS mid-season.

[MikeThierry]

All of this said, the Reds are the team to beat and it wouldn't shock me if a team in this division who has 92-93 wins will not win this division.

[Caveman Techie]

I really don't think you're giving John Mozeliak enough credit here. When they won it back in 2011, the Cardinals used something like 12 rookies. Most of their current team was designed by John Mozeliak (only Molina and Chris Carpenter are the high impact players left from Walt). .

Wow, didn't realize Albert Pujols wasn't an "impact player", or Jon Jay for that matter, or Jamie Garcia.

[MikeThierry]

Wow, didn't realize Albert Pujols wasn't an "impact player", or Jon Jay for that matter, or Jamie Garcia.

I forgot about Garcian and Jay, forgive me. Still, the majority of the 2011 and 2012 teams were established from Mo. People shouldn't also forget that Mozeliak was assistant GM under Walt so Mo did have some impact with the players acquired under Walt. It also doesn't change the fact that he completely rebuilt the farm system and put it in the place where they can bring players up from the minors to make an immediate impact.