Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

[JayBruceFan]

Am I the only one that thinks Yonder has been/is very overrated?

[dougdirt]

Am I the only one that thinks Yonder has been/is very overrated?

I think things are starting to swing so much that he is actually quite underrated at this point. At mid season Baseball America had him as the 15th best prospect in baseball. Now some people have him outside of the Top 50.

[dougdirt]

Klinker, Lecure and/or Maloney have legitimate shots to give us 25 starts for 2011 or 2012? That's good to know. But, won't those three be extremely inexperienced in 2011 and all of them be very lucky if they have ERA's under 5.00 as starters in 2011? It would be a bonus if one of them had an ERA under 4.50 and got 25 starts in 2012, to me. Again, my opinion on this is minimal, at best, as I know about 1/100th about them as you do. I haven't even seen them in person, and I haven't seen Klinker at all....just seen his numbers. Do any of them actually have a 50-50 chance of coming up with 25 starts in 2012 along with 25 starts? I am really interested to know. Thanks.

Klinker and Maloney sure. Inexperience doesn't always mean unable. Those guys are going to be 25 or older in 2011, not exactly spring chickens. They know how to pitch. As for getting them 25 starts, that is up to the Reds. I think that both are talented enough to get 25-30 starts a year at the back end of a rotation. Maloney probably winds up with that this season. He has to be the favorite for the #5 spot.

[corkedbat]

The stock is clearly dropping on Alonso:

2010
3 stars
"Perfect World Projection: Alonso’s an everyday first baseman, but he’s not a huge star, and he’ll possibly be in need of a platoon partner."

2009
5 stars
"Perfect World Projection: He should become a .300/.400/.550 first baseman."

I like the news about him in LF and RF, I'd prefer to see him move rather than Votto. I don't see it in the cards though.

I'm hoping for better than that for Alonso, but I don't like him enough to be penciling him in for Votto's spot either as some seem to be ready to do. I'd actually be ready to include him in a deal now if somone would ante up a young, real OF that I liked - same for Franciso. They both have upside, but they each may be exposed too. Dealing one now would not bother me if the return were right.

[dougdirt]

I'm hoping for better than that for Alonso, but I don't like him enough to be penciling him in for Votto's spot either as some seem to be ready to do. I'd actually be ready to include him in a deal now if somone would ante up a young, real OF that I liked - same for Franciso. They both have upside, but they each may be exposed too. Dealing one now would not bother me if the return were right.

What has 'exposed' Alonso?

[corkedbat]

What has 'exposed' Alonso?

Never said that he had been exposed. I said, "They both have upside, but they each may be exposed too."

Not saying either Francisco or Alonso is a bust by any means, but I'm not sold on either as a "can't miss" .

I think Francisco's plate approach may limit his power and his upside against MLB pitching unless he makes big strides.

With Alonso, questions that have been published about his ability to hit LHers is something to factor in. I'm not sure that he has the power to make him special at 1B. I also am not wild about the change that would move Votto to LF to makeroom for Alonso. I think you'd weaken two spots defensively.

I'm not saying Yonder won't be a decent pro - I believe he will - and he is at the top of our position prospect list along with Frazier. I'm just not convinced he's an untouchable by any means. I wouldn't be too quick to deal him, but I could be tempted if the price was right.

I believe that with both Franciso and Alonso, their "Sell High" point might be as prospects. I think decision time is here on JF. I think i I'm Walt I have to decide if i believe that Juan can continue to hit for power in the majors or can I still interest another team in him as a prospect with huge power potential before he's exposed by big league hurlers.

with Alonso, that point is at least a year or so away - if nothing else, because he has had such a small sample size. I hope he has a huge season and puts my concerns behind me. I love "homegrown" guys in the lineup.

[mth123]

Never said that he had been exposed. I said, "They both have upside, but they each may be exposed too."

Not saying either Francisco or Alonso is a bust by any means, but I'm not sold on either as a "can't miss" .

I think Francisco's plate approach may limit his power and his upside against MLB pitching unless he makes big strides.

With Alonso, questions that have been published about his ability to hit LHers is something to factor in. I'm not sure that he has the power to make him special at 1B. I also am not wild about the change that would move Votto to LF to makeroom for Alonso. I think you'd weaken two spots defensively.

I'm not saying Yonder won't be a decent pro - I believe he will - and he is at the top of our position prospect list along with Frazier. I'm just not convinced he's an untouchable by any means. I wouldn't be too quick to deal him, but I could be tempted if the price was right.

I believe that with both Franciso and Alonso, their "Sell High" point might be as prospects. I think decision time is here on JF. I think i I'm Walt I have to decide if i believe that Juan can continue to hit for power in the majors or can I still interest another team in him as a prospect with huge power potential before he's exposed by big league hurlers.

with Alonso, that point is at least a year or so away - if nothing else, because he has had such a small sample size. I hope he has a huge season and puts my concerns behind me. I love "homegrown" guys in the lineup.

I'm not sure that Alonso would be a downgrade at 1B from Votto. Votto has some mobility over there and it makes him kind of flashy as 1B go, but he still looks kind of clunky around the bag to me and I actually think he'd be a better LF than he is a 1B. Just gotta a see if he can judge a fly ball. Of course if he can't, then back to 1B.

[Kc61]

I think some people are underrating both Alonso and Francisco. Around here, I think Francisco has been underrated for years.

It doesn't surprise me that somebody would have both on the top fifty list.

What's interesting is that they represent two opposites. One is a power guy, lacking plate discipline, but very productive with timely hitting and many extra base hits. The other seems highly disciplined but hasn't shown the power.

If this were an AL team, with a DH, I would look forward to a lefty group of Votto, Bruce, Francisco and Alonso all in the lineup somewhere. Against righty pitching, pretty impressive.

[bucksfan2]

I think some people are underrating both Alonso and Francisco. Around here, I think Francisco has been underrated for years.

It doesn't surprise me that somebody would have both on the top fifty list.

What's interesting is that they represent two opposites. One is a power guy, lacking plate discipline, but very productive with timely hitting and many extra base hits. The other seems highly disciplined but hasn't shown the power.

If this were an AL team, with a DH, I would look forward to a lefty group of Votto, Bruce, Francisco and Alonso all in the lineup somewhere. Against righty pitching, pretty impressive.

I think Alonso is right were he should be. Questions about his bat and his inability to play anywhere at 1b should knock his status. The guy has got to be a hitting machine to overcome his limitations, and he has yet to prove that. Granted it has only been 1+ years, but it still is a concern.

I think Francisco could be tremendously under rated if he develops any kind of plate presence. Until he does that I just don't know if his game will translate to the MLB level.

[JayBruceFan]

I think things are starting to swing so much that he is actually quite underrated at this point. At mid season Baseball America had him as the 15th best prospect in baseball. Now some people have him outside of the Top 50.

He just seems to have a lot of things going against him right now; his lack of speed, lack of fielding versatility, scouts questioning his power, his lack of consistent success against LHP and questions about his ability to stay healthy (even though his injury this past season isn't likely to happen again and was more than likely a fluke, if anything at all)

[dougdirt]

He just seems to have a lot of things going against him right now; his lack of speed, lack of fielding versatility, scouts questioning his power, his lack of consistent success against LHP and questions about his ability to stay healthy (even though his injury this past season isn't likely to happen again and was more than likely a fluke, if anything at all)

I would like to point out that had he qualified for the batting title in the FSL last year Alonso would have finished 3rd in average, 2nd in OBP and first in slugging by 31 points. The dude can rake. As for his ability to stay healthy, no one has ever questioned that. This is his first injury since when? High school? As for lefties, 13 walks and 15 strikeouts against them in his career tells me he is fine against them. He has less than 75 at bats against them so far as a pro.

[OnBaseMachine]

From C. Trent's blog:

Also on the trip was Todd Benzinger, who was asked which players he's seen at Dayton that could have an impact in Louisville soon. He mentioned shortstop Miguel Rojas, a 20-year old shortstop. "He's as good defensively as anyone in the game, the big leagues included."

http://cnati.com/blogs/ctrent/

[Mario-Rijo]

From C. Trent's blog:

Also on the trip was Todd Benzinger, who was asked which players he's seen at Dayton that could have an impact in Louisville soon. He mentioned shortstop Miguel Rojas, a 20-year old shortstop. "He's as good defensively as anyone in the game, the big leagues included."

http://cnati.com/blogs/ctrent/

I'll say this Rojas is as smooth a defender as I have seen, the kid is straight butta over there.

[TheBigLebowski]

I'm not down on Alonso, like some of these scouts, but I just wish we would have taken Beckham instead.

I'm not mistaken, am I? Wasn't he available when we took Alonso?

[Mario-Rijo]

I'm not down on Alonso, like some of these scouts, but I just wish we would have taken Beckham instead.

I'm not mistaken, am I? Wasn't he available when we took Alonso?

Yes, as was Justin Smoak who is the #9 prospect on MLB.com to ALonso's #30. Smoak is just as good if not better with the bat, better defender and switch hits. Never made any sense why we'd want a 1B at that point and if so why we took the 2nd best one according to the consensus at the time.