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Thread: Willy Taveras - 2009 to date

  1. #196
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    As of now:

    Taveras: .293/.351/.376/.727
    Dickerson: .230/.356/.365/.721

    OBP and OPS nearly identical. Everyone says Taveras has been good and Dickerson has been awful. I think they've both been awful. Its just that Willy has surpassed expectations while Dickerson has fallen short of expectations (but the Reds aren't on the hook for $4 Million to Dickerson in 2010). By next week at this time, The Memorial Day checkpoint, Dickerson may still have outperformed Willy.

    63 points of batting average is significant. Taveras has almost double the ABs138 ABs, Dickerson only 74. (which means Dickerson could be better or worse).

    Dickerson's OBP and OBP is just floating by 15 walks. Not to mention Dickerson's defense has been putrid.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!


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  3. #197
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    63 points of batting average is significant. Taveras has almost double the ABs138 ABs, Dickerson only 74. (which means Dickerson could be better or worse).

    Dickerson's OBP and OBP is just floating by 15 walks. Not to mention Dickerson's defense has been putrid.
    Look at the differece in what WT and CD are being paid.

    This is nothing more than an honest question, Is WT that much better?

    .

  4. #198
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Probably because the sample sizes are still small and numbers are prone to wild swings.

    On May 11, Taveras' OPS sat at .795 and Dickerson's was .604. One week ago, those statements were pretty accurate.
    I agree about the small sample sizes. It was the entire point really. Judging a guy on a hot or cold streak by his numbers this early in the season seems nutty. I still think Willy is who we all thought he was and that was a guy not worth signing.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  5. #199
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Wily might hit .280, score 100 runs, play good defense and steal 60+ bases. That's reasonable.
    Except that it isn't.

    He's hit .280+ two years out of four.

    He's never exceeded 85 runs

    He's stolen 60+ bases once out of four years.

    He's exceeded .350 OBP once in four years (due to smaller sample size)

    His EqA has been league average (.260) once in four years (due to smaller sample size)

    So no, your scenario isn't "reasonable".

  6. #200
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Interestingly, before Willy's current 0-17 streak, he'd gotten a hit in 14 straight games.

  7. #201
    Pitter Patter TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    If the Reds didn't give Wily two years, he probably signs elsewhere.

    Walt really didn't have time to wait Wily out. He knew the Reds desperately needed a CF and Wily was the only FA CF in our price range.

    Even with Wily's recent slump, his contract is still a good one, even with 2 years.

    But let's say we gave Wily a one year, 3 million dollar deal instead of 2 years at 6.. then we go to arb with him. Wily might hit .280, score 100 runs, play good defense and steal 60+ bases. That's reasonable. Those are pretty good numbers to take to arb. After this season, I think Wily has enough service time to compare himself with all players as peers. Given some of the really bad CF contracts out there recently, I think Wily may have won more in arb.. It would make me uncomfortable to go to arb with him.
    Aside from the fact that your "reasonable scenario" has already been refuted, what makes you think the Reds would offer him arbitration? And if so, why would he accept?

    Say he indeed does all that you say, that's an immensely valuable commodity, but for the Reds, one that could be replaced in house. At this point, Stubbs (yeah, never been a fan, but never doubted his "D") is tearing up AAA. Since you presented a "scenario", I'll counter with Stubbs AND Heisey continue to dominate as hitters, with Heisey being promoted to AAA in June, and continues his torrid start there. That gives the Reds two in-house options making the league minimum.

    Now if the Reds were to offer arb, it would more likely be with the understanding that WT refuse. If he did what you suggest, something he's never come close to in his MLB career, he'd be at the top of every team's list looking for a leadoff hitter. He'd get a minimum of 3 years/15 mil. MINIMUM. That's more than the Reds would/should offer him.

    REDREAD, I've been with you far more than against, but you are dead wrong about Taveras, his upside, and especially his value to this team.

    At least in my opinion.
    Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.

  8. #202
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    Look at the differece in what WT and CD are being paid.

    This is nothing more than an honest question, Is WT that much better?

    .

    Yes, it's worth it.

    In the offseason, the only OF spot the team was comfortable with was RF.
    Redszone was comfortable with Dickerson, and Walt wasn't (for good reason).

    Tavares has been an above average CF so far. Even if Dickerson OPSed 1.000 this season, it would still be a great move, because that fills both LF and CF.

    Someone had a good point on this thread. Although Dickerson has been disappointing, he's a useful reserve player. It's not as if he's been buried in AAA. Depth is a good thing to have. Tavares is definitely earning his 3 million.

    Now if Taveres was making 10 million/year, I could see people agonizing over his salary.. But we have guys like Phillips, Cordero and Arroyo that are making a lot more money.. their salaries are seldom brought up. Occasionally, yes..
    but not nearly to the extent of Tavares. Heck, Tavares is making less than Weathers. 3 million/year for a FA average CF is a great deal.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  9. #203
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Except that it isn't.

    He's hit .280+ two years out of four.

    He's never exceeded 85 runs

    He's stolen 60+ bases once out of four years.

    He's exceeded .350 OBP once in four years (due to smaller sample size)

    His EqA has been league average (.260) once in four years (due to smaller sample size)

    So no, your scenario isn't "reasonable".
    We are talking about arbitration though. It doesn't necessarly follow the same logic we do.

    Remember Sean Casey's arb hearing a few years ago. His agent said something like Casey was the only player to hit .300 with more than 20 HR other than Arod. That was a key argument (at least according to the press).

    The arbitrators are not stat gurus. A .280 BA, 60-80 steals and 100 runs scored can be painted to make Wily an elite CF. That's the whole reason why the Rockies DFAed him. They did not want to go to arbitration with Wily.

    By the same reaosn, if Wily continues to play at that level, I would not want the Reds to go to arb with him. He can compare himself to all CF this offseason. He can bring up the big contracts that Goodwin, Andruw Jones, Gary Matthews, Tori Hunter, etc have gotten. He's a lock to win over 4 million in arb.. That is the point. I'm glad the Reds have him locked in for 4 million, vs going to arb with him.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  10. #204
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    We are talking about arbitration though. It doesn't necessarly follow the same logic we do.

    Remember Sean Casey's arb hearing a few years ago. His agent said something like Casey was the only player to hit .300 with more than 20 HR other than Arod. That was a key argument (at least according to the press).

    The arbitrators are not stat gurus. A .280 BA, 60-80 steals and 100 runs scored can be painted to make Wily an elite CF. That's the whole reason why the Rockies DFAed him. They did not want to go to arbitration with Wily.

    By the same reaosn, if Wily continues to play at that level, I would not want the Reds to go to arb with him. He can compare himself to all CF this offseason. He can bring up the big contracts that Goodwin, Andruw Jones, Gary Matthews, Tori Hunter, etc have gotten. He's a lock to win over 4 million in arb.. That is the point. I'm glad the Reds have him locked in for 4 million, vs going to arb with him.
    He... has... never... done... this.

    Why do magically think he will now?
    Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.

  11. #205
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    You mean the Rockies didn't DFA him because of this? .251/.308/.296

    That was his line in his final season there.

  12. #206
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    A .280 BA, 60-80 steals and 100 runs scored can be painted to make Wily an elite CF.
    If Willy does that, he will have eclipsed his career averages by 10 in the counting stats and maintained his BA. Because the counting stats would be so high, it's likely that he actually played a good 150 games (which would be above his career average number). If he does that, great!

    But let him do it first.

    Whether that makes him an "elite" CF, I don't know. Probably not. Would he and his agent make that case in arbitration? Probably.

  13. #207
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    But let him do it first.

    Whether that makes him an "elite" CF, I don't know. Probably not. Would he and his agent make that case in arbitration? Probably.
    Of course IF he does do it then he'll only be the 5th guy to have done it... but the 2nd Red.

    Code:
    SEASON
    MODERN (1900-)
    RUNS >= 100
    STOLEN BASES BETWEEN 60 AND 80
    AVERAGE BETWEEN .270 AND .280
    
    OPS                           YEAR     OPS       R       SB       AVG    
    1    Rickey Henderson         1989     .810      113       77     .274   
    2    Bob Bescher              1911     .753      106       80     .275   
    3    Juan Samuel              1984     .749      105       72     .272   
    4    Tony Womack              1999     .702      111       72     .277

  14. #208
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    The Rockies DFAed Taveras because of this:

    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  15. #209
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Of course IF he does do it then he'll only be the 5th guy to have done it... but the 2nd Red.

    Code:
    SEASON
    MODERN (1900-)
    RUNS >= 100
    STOLEN BASES BETWEEN 60 AND 80
    AVERAGE BETWEEN .270 AND .280
    
    OPS                           YEAR     OPS       R       SB       AVG    
    1    Rickey Henderson         1989     .810      113       77     .274   
    2    Bob Bescher              1911     .753      106       80     .275   
    3    Juan Samuel              1984     .749      105       72     .272   
    4    Tony Womack              1999     .702      111       72     .277
    So you're saying him and his agent wouldn't have needed a paintbrush at the arbitration hearing?

  16. #210
    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Of course IF he does do it then he'll only be the 5th guy to have done it... but the 2nd Red.

    Code:
    SEASON
    MODERN (1900-)
    RUNS >= 100
    STOLEN BASES BETWEEN 60 AND 80
    AVERAGE BETWEEN .270 AND .280
    
    OPS                           YEAR     OPS       R       SB       AVG    
    1    Rickey Henderson         1989     .810      113       77     .274   
    2    Bob Bescher              1911     .753      106       80     .275   
    3    Juan Samuel              1984     .749      105       72     .272   
    4    Tony Womack              1999     .702      111       72     .277
    Three of the four played for the Reds at some point in their careers, though.
    Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman. Damn glad to meet ya.


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