[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Except that it isn't.
He's hit .280+ two years out of four.
He's never exceeded 85 runs
He's stolen 60+ bases once out of four years.
He's exceeded .350 OBP once in four years (due to smaller sample size)
His EqA has been league average (.260) once in four years (due to smaller sample size)
So no, your scenario isn't "reasonable".
Interestingly, before Willy's current 0-17 streak, he'd gotten a hit in 14 straight games.
Aside from the fact that your "reasonable scenario" has already been refuted, what makes you think the Reds would offer him arbitration? And if so, why would he accept?
Say he indeed does all that you say, that's an immensely valuable commodity, but for the Reds, one that could be replaced in house. At this point, Stubbs (yeah, never been a fan, but never doubted his "D") is tearing up AAA. Since you presented a "scenario", I'll counter with Stubbs AND Heisey continue to dominate as hitters, with Heisey being promoted to AAA in June, and continues his torrid start there. That gives the Reds two in-house options making the league minimum.
Now if the Reds were to offer arb, it would more likely be with the understanding that WT refuse. If he did what you suggest, something he's never come close to in his MLB career, he'd be at the top of every team's list looking for a leadoff hitter. He'd get a minimum of 3 years/15 mil. MINIMUM. That's more than the Reds would/should offer him.
REDREAD, I've been with you far more than against, but you are dead wrong about Taveras, his upside, and especially his value to this team.
At least in my opinion.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Yes, it's worth it.
In the offseason, the only OF spot the team was comfortable with was RF.
Redszone was comfortable with Dickerson, and Walt wasn't (for good reason).
Tavares has been an above average CF so far. Even if Dickerson OPSed 1.000 this season, it would still be a great move, because that fills both LF and CF.
Someone had a good point on this thread. Although Dickerson has been disappointing, he's a useful reserve player. It's not as if he's been buried in AAA. Depth is a good thing to have. Tavares is definitely earning his 3 million.
Now if Taveres was making 10 million/year, I could see people agonizing over his salary.. But we have guys like Phillips, Cordero and Arroyo that are making a lot more money.. their salaries are seldom brought up. Occasionally, yes..
but not nearly to the extent of Tavares. Heck, Tavares is making less than Weathers. 3 million/year for a FA average CF is a great deal.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
We are talking about arbitration though. It doesn't necessarly follow the same logic we do.
Remember Sean Casey's arb hearing a few years ago. His agent said something like Casey was the only player to hit .300 with more than 20 HR other than Arod. That was a key argument (at least according to the press).
The arbitrators are not stat gurus. A .280 BA, 60-80 steals and 100 runs scored can be painted to make Wily an elite CF. That's the whole reason why the Rockies DFAed him. They did not want to go to arbitration with Wily.
By the same reaosn, if Wily continues to play at that level, I would not want the Reds to go to arb with him. He can compare himself to all CF this offseason. He can bring up the big contracts that Goodwin, Andruw Jones, Gary Matthews, Tori Hunter, etc have gotten. He's a lock to win over 4 million in arb.. That is the point. I'm glad the Reds have him locked in for 4 million, vs going to arb with him.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
You mean the Rockies didn't DFA him because of this? .251/.308/.296
That was his line in his final season there.
If Willy does that, he will have eclipsed his career averages by 10 in the counting stats and maintained his BA. Because the counting stats would be so high, it's likely that he actually played a good 150 games (which would be above his career average number). If he does that, great!
But let him do it first.
Whether that makes him an "elite" CF, I don't know. Probably not. Would he and his agent make that case in arbitration? Probably.
Of course IF he does do it then he'll only be the 5th guy to have done it... but the 2nd Red.
Code:SEASON MODERN (1900-) RUNS >= 100 STOLEN BASES BETWEEN 60 AND 80 AVERAGE BETWEEN .270 AND .280 OPS YEAR OPS R SB AVG 1 Rickey Henderson 1989 .810 113 77 .274 2 Bob Bescher 1911 .753 106 80 .275 3 Juan Samuel 1984 .749 105 72 .272 4 Tony Womack 1999 .702 111 72 .277
The Rockies DFAed Taveras because of this:
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
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