per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

[reds44]

Nevermind the years at the money right now:

Locks:
Cueto
Latos
Leake
Cingrani

Trade Bait?
Bailey

Wild Card:
Chapman

If you're going to try to trade Bailey and keep Chapman as a closer, you try to keep Arroyo. If you want to keep Bailey, I really don't see a need to try to re-sign Arroyo. If you want to trade Bailey and start Chapman, well that's where things get interesting.

[PuffyPig]

Make him the QO. He won't take it. He needs to maximize $$$ at this point, even at the expense of years.
If someone offers him him 4/35, he'd take it over 3/30 and certainly over 1/14

The big question is whether anyone will offer him a deal if they have to give up a draft pick.

The even bigger question is, if the Reds offer him a qualifying offer, and he accepts it, have they essentially then punted the 2014 season, as we may well be the same team as we were in 2013 but minus Choo, maybe minus Bailey, and certainly without the money to upgrade anything?

I remained convinced that the gamble of extending a aqualifying offer to Arroyo is simply too risky to take, even if the chance of him accepting it is debatable.

[REDREAD]

You're making some assumptions here that I don't agree with. In your scenario, you're basically saying that Arroyo would be smart to work for two extra seasons for an extra $5 million. That's a lot of money for us, but Arroyo has already made $72 million during his career. An extra $5 million is not going to have much of an impact, if any, on his quality of life. Would he rather have more free time than work at a drastically reduced salary? You're saying he wouldn't and/or he would be stupid not to work. I'm saying we don't know the answer to that question.

I guess the difference in opinion is what people here feel Arroyo's market value is.

Some people think Arroyo's best offer will be something like 3years/21 million.
I really disagree with that. I think the min he will get is 3/33 (What Lohse got, despite his agent alienating his market).. It would not suprise me to see Arroyo get 3/36 or 3/40.

Most importantly, Arroyo has made this "multiyear deal" a respect issue.
He's not going to accept arbitration with the Reds and then always wonder what the Mets, Giants, etc would've offered him. That would be foolhardy.
Look at it this way.. what's the worst case for Arroyo if he turns down the arb offer from the Reds? Worst case... He ends up with a one year deal somewhere else in the neighborhood of 9-15+ million. Does everyone agree with that? He literally has almost nothing to lose by testing the market.

[REDREAD]

Teams aren't throwing draft picks around like they used to.

You saw last year the reluctance of teams to sacrifice draft picks. That will likely even get worse this year.

The Brewers signed Lohse very late becuase they were desperate with injuries to Hart and their desire to compete with the Cards, Reds and Pirates.
.

Lohse is actually a good example though to look at.
The Brewers put Lohse on revocable waivers after the trade deadline. The Braves claimed him, but no deal was reached.
A team could sign Arroyo and then at some point before his contract is up, trade him to a contending team that needs pitching. The prospects recieved back would probably be worth more than a late first round draft pick that was sacrificed.

[MattyHo4Life]

What happened with Lohse had a lot to do with Scott Boras chasing away his market more the draft pick compensation chasing it away.

How did Boras chase his market away? Don't get me wrong, I know Boras has done that to his clients a lot in the past, but I don't remember that happening with Lohse. In Lohse's case, it seemed there wasn't a market for him the moment he declined that qualifying offer. Boras thought there would be a lot of multi year offers out there for him, so declining the Cards offer was a no brainer for him. What Boras didn't take into account was how much teams valued the draft pick they would be forced to surrender. I don't think Arroyo's agent will make that same mistake.

[757690]

The big question is whether anyone will offer him a deal if they have to give up a draft pick.

The even bigger question is, if the Reds offer him a qualifying offer, and he accepts it, have they essentially then punted the 2014 season, as we may well be the same team as we were in 2013 but minus Choo, maybe minus Bailey, and certainly without the money to upgrade anything?

I remained convinced that the gamble of extending a aqualifying offer to Arroyo is simply too risky to take, even if the chance of him accepting it is debatable.

The Reds are going to try to trade Bailey and. Phillips, regardless of how the Arroyo situation ends up. They won't be the same team minus Choo, no matter what happens with Arroyo.

Plus, you likely have Chapman to the rotation, a healthy Cueto, Ludwick, Marshall and Broxton, a full season of Cingrani, a full season of Mesoraco catching most games, Hamilton in CF, and Stephenson and Lorenzen likely ready for mid season promotion.

The Reds won't be the same team in 2014 as they were in 2013, even if Arroyo accepts their QO, for better or worse.

[REDREAD]

How did Boras chase his market away? Don't get me wrong, I know Boras has done that to his clients a lot in the past, but I don't remember that happening with Lohse. In Lohse's case, it seemed there wasn't a market for him the moment he declined that qualifying offer. Boras thought there would be a lot of multi year offers out there for him, so declining the Cards offer was a no brainer for him. What Boras didn't take into account was how much teams valued the draft pick they would be forced to surrender. I don't think Arroyo's agent will make that same mistake.

Matty, this is all speculation, but in the past, Boras has asked way too much money for his clients. I'm guessing that's why the Brewers waited out Lohse. They knew if they waited long enough, Boras would come down.

Same thing with Bourne.. Wasn't he a Boras client? How come Bourn ended up with a deal that was worse than BJ Upton? This is speculation on my part, but I'm guessing if Bourne/Boras went to the Braves as soon as the season ended and said they'd accept a deal exactly like BJ Upton, the Braves would've quickly agreed. Instead, Boras played the waiting game and Bourn's market evaporated a little more every month.

I keep coming back to the fact the Arroyo has said multiple times that the Reds need to make him a multiyear offer for him to come back. There's almost no chance Arroyo accepts a qualifying offer. Now, I agree with some that the Reds might be so risk averse that they don't extend a qualifying offer, but it's a no brainer to me. Extend the offer to Arroyo. Less than a 1% chance that Arroyo accepts. If Arroyo does accept, you trade Homer.
(Arroyo + prospects for 2014) vs (Homer and a draft pick for 2014).. I'm ok with either one.

[M2]

How did Boras chase his market away?

IIRC, he entered the market asking for some fairly outrageous terms, typical Boras overreach. Rather than deal with Boras, teams went elsewhere in the market.

[westofyou]

IIRC, he entered the market asking for some fairly outrageous terms, typical Boras overreach. Rather than deal with Boras, teams went elsewhere in the market.

http://tracking.si.com/2013/03/24/ky...s-free-agency/

Boras is still asking teams interested in Lohse for a contract worth $14-15 million per season, Olney is reporting.

Signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 3/25/13 13:$11M, 14:$11M, 15:$11M

[jojo]

IIRC, he entered the market asking for some fairly outrageous terms, typical Boras overreach. Rather than deal with Boras, teams went elsewhere in the market.

The thing about using Lohse as a comp is that there were some doubts about what Lohse really was while Boras was asking for the money of an established impact arm which also was going to cost a draft pick.

Teams in the market for Arroyo are probably going to be sure they know what they are getting whether they are right or wrong in their assessment of what they'd be getting.

[bucksfan2]

I haven't read this entire thread but hopefully someone can answer this question. When the Reds extend a qualifying offer to a player. Whether it be Choo or Arroyo, how long does the player have to act? Arroyo can't get a qualifying offer from the Reds, go out and scour the market for a multi year deal, and then return to the Reds and accept the offer, can he?

[AmarilloRed]

NM

[AmarilloRed]

I haven't read this entire thread but hopefully someone can answer this question. When the Reds extend a qualifying offer to a player. Whether it be Choo or Arroyo, how long does the player have to act? Arroyo can't get a qualifying offer from the Reds, go out and scour the market for a multi year deal, and then return to the Reds and accept the offer, can he?

i think it's been mentioned they have 6 days.

[redsmetz]

i think it's been mentioned they have 6 days.

According to an explanation on mlbtraderumors.com last year, teams have five days after the WS to make the offer, the players have seven days to accept or reject.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...ng-offers.html

Here's an interesting list of those who may get qualifying offers and how the market may or may not be affected. Interesting that Arroyo's name doesn't come up at all, but it may be because of his age and that they're assuming the Reds won't make an offer.

It lists Justin Morneau, but the article was dated 8/25 and he was traded on the 31st, so Pittsburgh may not make a qualifying offer (a significant change in the CBA - clubs in the past could make a trade like this and get the draft pick - no more).

I think the club makes an offer, but he doesn't accept it. It's not unreasonable for folks to think otherwise. He's clearly one on the fence for both the club and the player.



http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2013/8/2...y-brian-mccann

[redsmetz]

i think it's been mentioned they have 6 days.

According to an explanation on mlbtraderumors.com last year, teams have five days after the WS to make the offer, the players have seven days to accept or reject.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...ng-offers.html

Here's an interesting list of those who may get qualifying offers and how the market may or may not be affected. Interesting that Arroyo's name doesn't come up at all, but it may be because of his age and that they're assuming the Reds won't make an offer.

It lists Justin Morneau, but the article was dated 8/25 and he was traded on the 31st, so Pittsburgh may not make a qualifying offer (a significant change in the CBA - clubs in the past could make a trade like this and get the draft pick - no more).

I think the club makes an offer, but he doesn't accept it. It's not unreasonable for folks to think otherwise. He's clearly one on the fence for both the club and the player.



http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2013/8/2...y-brian-mccann