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BP. But either way you slice it, he's either sub replacement or slightly over at this point. Usually with a WAR discrepancy like that I tend to fall in the middle, so replacement level he is. And he's 27 now, so I think, to borrow from Dennis Green "he is who we think he is, and we let him off the hook!" But, if you wanna crown....never mind.
Last edited by gilpdawg; 07-05-2012 at 03:30 AM.
Barry On Baseball Also blogging at Banished to the Pen.
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Sure, he's not a lost cause, but he's trending downwards and it doesn't look all that promising to me. He reminds me of an outfield Willie Greene. Good for a couple of years but couldn't adjust once people figured out how to get him out.
I hope I'm wrong. I like the guy.
But we have a ton of data. Baseball history is filled with guys who came up and were decent for a while but couldn't adjust once the league figured them out. Unless Stubbs can make a significant change to his game, I think a .700 OPS season is a pipedream from here on out. I'm guessing his OPS will continue to fall. He'll get a few chances with new teams that think they can fix him, but he'll continue to drop until it reaches the point where no team is interested. I wouldn't call Willy Taveras a "comp" for Stubbs, but I think how his career progressed is a pretty good example. I really wanted the Reds to deal Stubbs last winter while he still had some value. Many argued that it would have been selling low, but, with arb coming, I just had a hard time seeing how his value was going to go up. This year's deadline may be the last chance the Reds have to include Stubbs in a deal for anything of value.
Last edited by mth123; 07-05-2012 at 06:00 AM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Here's the biggest problem with Stubbs. It's not the short term 0 for 28. It's not just his .686 OPS last year or his .638 this year.
It's his number of plate appearances.
Stubbs had 681 plate appearances last season. By far the most on the Reds. This year, he missed time due to injury but still has 238 PA.
That's over 900 plate appearances in a season and a half.
When a hitter is averaging about .670 or thereabouts OPS, and he hits over 900 times in a season and a half, the offense will be hurt.
Maybe if the Reds added another top notch hitter to the lineup, perhaps they could get away with 900 plate appearances at .670 OPS. But as the offense is presently constructed, it's become a problem.
I said in April, and still maintain, that Stubbs' playing time needs to be cut. Unfortunately, Heisey isn't doing well either. But all these Stubbs at bats is intolerable.
Last edited by Kc61; 07-05-2012 at 09:03 AM.
Geez. I wanted to trade Stubbs 2 seasons ago when he still had value and "potential".
The problem with trading Stubbs though ... who plays CF?
Stubbs has certainly been disappointing this year, but Heisey is not an option either.
I just don't see any better CF available on the market, and in the Reds price range at this point.. Maybe someone else knows of one? Typically, good, young, and cheap CF are not traded, so upgrading CF is difficult, especially in midseason.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
This point has been made by KC as well and if the case, then so be it. Upgrade elsewhere, CF is what it is with Heisey or Stubbs, although neither have earned a place at the top of the lineup, nor a lucrative LT contract. Perhaps the market provides an opportunity down the road.
Probably won't be easy to replace him, but I'm more than over watching both Stubbs and Heisey.
Not sure DeJesus can play CF.. He played 68 games there in 2008, and only a handful since then. Given the large contract that Coco Crisp got last offseason, there's clearly a shortage of legit CF out there.. I would think that if DeJesus could play CF, he would've gotten a much bigger contract.
Span would be nice, but why would the Twins trade their CF who is signed longterm (option year at 2015)? Seems like he would command a very steep price. Span has a career 744 OPS. That's better than Stubbs (716), but not exactly a huge upgrade. His LF bat and better OBP would be a better fit, but again.. what price are you willing to pay for just a slight upgrade in CF?
IMO, this response proved my point that upgrading CF would be difficult, especially at midseason.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
DeJesus played center for the Royals when he began and he is/was a fine fielder. But he has gotten older and I doubt he could do better than fill in as an emergency CFer now.
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