malcontent (10-10-2013)
Sanchez is a switch hitter. Broxton had allowed a .219 BAA/.548 OPSA against righties compared to a .294 BAA/.670 OPSA and a .362 OBPA (remember, a walk scores a run in that situation) last year.
Arias has 11 career stolen bases in his 327 career games. Yes, he is a speed burner.
Last edited by malcontent; 10-10-2013 at 04:08 PM.
Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi
Revering4Blue (10-10-2013)
He shouldnt have even considered Leake to start , leake was left off the roster in a meritocratic way
jimbo (10-10-2013)
Well, if walks are what you were worried about, Sanchez walked all of 5 times in 227 PA in 2012. So he walks 2% of the time he comes to the plate. Is this really what Dusty should have worried about? He also struck out 52 times as well, good for 23% of the time he comes to the plate. Is Broxton a strike out pitcher? And Sanchez has a .661 OPS against righties, hardly someone that puts a lot of fear into pitchers.
Sanchez also had yet to come to the plate in the series, so was ice cold. His last PA was a week earlier. Arias got a hit off Champman in Game 1 and already had 1 PA in this game as well.
Arias had a lower OPS against righties than Sanchez, at .625. But half the difference was power, which was completely irrelevant in that situation. Sanchez OBP against RH was .295, while Arias' was .278. In other words, they both made a lot of outs. But Arias struck out only 44 times in 344 plate appearance, or 13% of the time. This is about half the rate of Sanchez.
So to further your argument, you're trying to say Arias isn't fast? You sure about that? Rolen picked up the ball quickly and made the throw. A slower runner is still out. Arias may not steal a lot of bases, but he's a very fast player down the line to first.
So in choosing to pitch to Arias he was facing a guy who strikes out a lot less so puts the ball in play at a much higher rate, is a much faster runner once he does put the ball in play making the margin for error much less for your fielders, and who was already in the game and was 1 for 2 in the series.
In so doing, he was also ensuring that they were going to be facing the best reliever on their roster.... a guy who finished 2012 with a WHIP of 0.849, and who had already thrown 2 innings of perfect baseball in the series.
Had he walked Arias, I'm going to assume Sanchez would have pinch hit. If he had let Romo hit, I think we could all agree would have been the best scenario for the Reds on getting out of the inning. In this scenario, he would have used his last position player he had left. He also would be facing a guy who basically never walks (which is really the most critical part of of your argument), strikes out almost twice as much so you don't have to worry as much about an error, and who is much slower giving your fielders a much greater margin for error, and would have had a force at all bases.
Seems to me the only factor in favor of pitching to Arias is the 18 point difference in OBP against RH. That has to be offset by the difference in speed and the difference in strike outs. Sanchez was much less likely to put the ball in play, and even less likely to beat anything out. I don't know about you, but with a playoff game on the line I'd rather face a cold slow, strike out guy rather than a warmed up fast contact hitter.
Now do you really think letting Arias hit was the higher percentage play for the game?
Last edited by MWM; 10-10-2013 at 05:29 PM.
Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David
malcontent (10-10-2013)
Three guys that have never been in my kitchen?
I loved Dusty the man. Great character, great leader of men, spoke honestly, and all round bonhomme. I'll never say anything bad about the man in Dusty.
But he did make some head-scratcher tactical moves and was well-known for that in all his managerial stops. I think that is what is eventually going to keep him out of the HoF. He could have had 2-3 rings had he managed more sensibly.
She used to wake me up with coffee ever morning
westofyou (10-11-2013)
Interesting to see Scott Rolen brought up, because the man was toast by the end of last year. Clearly playing in pain, and clearly was outplayed by Todd Frazier in 2012.
Todd Frazier, just by virtue of health, doesn't make that error, but there's simply no scenario where Dusty wouldn't have played Scott Rolen.
That's fine in the regular season, to an extent, but you have to do things differently in the postseason. It's another example of Dusty's inflexibility costing the Reds.
And what's also interesting is that it was a repeat of 2010. Scott Rolen was hurting badly by the end of that season as well and made two errors in that NLDS.
Dusty was clearly good at some things, tactical decisions were not among them.
You have someone earlier in this thread lauding him for hitting Jay Bruce instead of Willie Bloomquist, which may be sarcasm, I'm not sure, but if that's one of the best tactical decisions someone can remember Dusty making then that kind of says it all.
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
malcontent (10-11-2013),WMR (10-11-2013)
I remember starting a thread before the 2012 season, worried that Baker would not only stick with Rolen after his dreadful 2011 season (.676 OPS), but bat him cleanup. Sure enough, that's where Rolen started the season.
Rolen started at 3B until May 12, putting up a .542 OPS, when he basically DLed himself. That was when Frazier entered the picture and the Reds started to win.
Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi
WMR (10-11-2013)
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