Who is the better CF prospect right now, Heisey or Stubbs?

[fearofpopvol1]

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Their both about the same age. I've not seen either play in person, but it seems like Stubbs has an advantage on the glove side, but Heisey is better with the bat. Heisey has 16 doubles, 8 HRs and he rarely whiffs. His stats are other worldly at the moment.

Both are having pretty fine years, although Stubbs is having his year at AAA while Heisey is having his at AA. Even still, and I know the sample size is small and Heisey will regress some, but Stubbs NEVER put up these kind of numbers at AA.

Both of these guys aren't going to be your CFs of the future. So what do you do here? Do you trade 1 of the 2 now? Both players and their value are at an all time high right now.

I'm really impressed by the progress Stubbs has made, I don't know why...but I just can't fully trust Stubbs (even though I do want him to succeed. I think I would try to move Stubbs and look at Heisey as the CF of the future. Especially since Taveras is signed for another year anyway. Move Stubbs now (or soon) and promote Heisey to AAA and then he'll be on the right timetable for The Show.

[RedEye]

I'm not sure I really understand the hurry to trade one of these guys right away. Decent hitting CF are a pretty rare commodity--and if they can play CF that also means they can cover the other OF positions as well. Why not an OF of Heisey-Stubbs-Bruce in 2011?

[RedEye]

To answer your question though, I pretty much agree with your assessment. Stubbs is a special defender, but Heisey looks to have the better bat right now. Both are looking like legit prospects... so that makes the decision tough. I think I'll go with Stubbs if only because plus defense in CF is so rare. But Heisey is on the come, that's for sure. They are both on the organizational top-5 list at this point, I would guess.

[fearofpopvol1]

To answer your question though, I pretty much agree with your assessment. Stubbs is a special defender, but Heisey looks to have the better bat right now. Both are looking like legit prospects... so that makes the decision tough. I think I'll go with Stubbs if only because plus defense in CF is so rare. But Heisey is on the come, that's for sure. They are both on the organizational top-5 list at this point, I would guess.

I wouldn't say it's hurry so much as it is...both are seeing their value at an all time high right now. I don't know that it will get too much higher, as a prospect. The Reds obviously have some needs. If you could trade 1 of those guys and get maybe not an elite SS prospect, but a good one...wouldn't that be worth it? Especially since you have a surplus at that position? And LF looks like it might be crowded for the Reds soon. If Votto turns out to be okay...he may slide out there to make room for Alonso or Todd Frazier may be the LF too.

[bellhead]

It looks like we a problem, rarely seen in the Reds organization, two plus players at the same position...Should make for a fun spring training next year.

[HokieRed]

Not to get the thread off track, but I think the question could also be posed this way: Is Heisey or Frazier the better prospect, if Frazier is going to have to be a corner outfielder? Heisey's numbers this year are easily good enough to cause us to begin thinking about him as a corner propect, and they're better than Frazier's currently at the same level. IMO, Frazier remains the better prospect, but we may well have both of them and Stubbs in Cinti. lineups in the future, which is one reason I hope that in another month, at least, they get Frazier to Louisville, install him at 3b, and decide whether he's going to be able to play there.

[fearofpopvol1]

Not to get the thread off track, but I think the question could also be posed this way: Is Heisey or Frazier the better prospect, if Frazier is going to have to be a corner outfielder? Heisey's numbers this year are easily good enough to cause us to begin thinking about him as a corner propect, and they're better than Frazier's currently at the same level. IMO, Frazier remains the better prospect, but we may well have both of them and Stubbs in Cinti. lineups in the future, which is one reason I hope that in another month, at least, they get Frazier to Louisville, install him at 3b, and decide whether he's going to be able to play there.

Yes, but the 1 thing you're not addressing (and I realize this is an "if"), but if everything is okay with Votto...he realistically may be moved to LF to make room for Alonso. What happens then? Frazier could at least go over to 3B if LF is not an option. Heisey won't be able to.

[Brutus]

http://louisville.bats.milb.com/milb...pbp&pid=453211

&

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=502317

Their both about the same age. I've not seen either play in person, but it seems like Stubbs has an advantage on the glove side, but Heisey is better with the bat. Heisey has 16 doubles, 8 HRs and he rarely whiffs. His stats are other worldly at the moment.

Both are having pretty fine years, although Stubbs is having his year at AAA while Heisey is having his at AA. Even still, and I know the sample size is small and Heisey will regress some, but Stubbs NEVER put up these kind of numbers at AA.

Both of these guys aren't going to be your CFs of the future. So what do you do here? Do you trade 1 of the 2 now? Both players and their value are at an all time high right now.

I'm really impressed by the progress Stubbs has made, I don't know why...but I just can't fully trust Stubbs (even though I do want him to succeed. I think I would try to move Stubbs and look at Heisey as the CF of the future. Especially since Taveras is signed for another year anyway. Move Stubbs now (or soon) and promote Heisey to AAA and then he'll be on the right timetable for The Show.

At this point, I would have to go with Heisey.

Heisey has a .365 Gross Production Average, while Stubbs is at a very respectable .282. Average GPA for CF a few years ago was .256. So league, park & minor league adjusted, they're both probably better than the average hitting center fielder.

That said, while Stubbs is considered the better defender, that's a pretty significant advantage in run production by Heisey. Even if he regresses slightly, he's looking to be an above average hitter continuing close to this current trend.

I adjusted Heisey's stats based on MLE projections. His adjusted GPA is .352 (70 points higher than Stubbs).

That, based on estimations, means he would have created about 40.6 runs (it's actually probably higher because the shorthand estimation I did does not take into account stolen bases). That's about .196 runs created per plate appearance. Stubbs is about 27.2 runs created or .154 runs created per plate appearance. Over 500 plate appearances at this level, Heisey would create about 21 more runs as an estimate (98/77). Is Stubbs worth 21 more runs saved than Heisey? I wouldn't think so, but I guess that becomes the question.

[SMcGavin]

How good is Heisey defensively?

[fearofpopvol1]

How good is Heisey defensively?

From everything I've read, he's considered above average. Not as good as Stubbs, but definitely above average.

Brutus...great analysis. Thanks for posting that!!

[OnBaseMachine]

How good is Heisey defensively?

From what I've heard and read, Heisey is an above average defender in CF.

[HokieRed]

Yes, but the 1 thing you're not addressing (and I realize this is an "if"), but if everything is okay with Votto...he realistically may be moved to LF to make room for Alonso. What happens then? Frazier could at least go over to 3B if LF is not an option. Heisey won't be able to.

We might get to a situation where we have Stubbs, Heisey, Frazier, Votto, EE, and Alonso to play 4 positions: LF, CF, 3B, 1B. Then we'd be able to move two to get other things.

[Scrap Irony]

Heisey is nearly Gold Glove, if not Gold Glove. Stubbs is just a bit better. (He also has a better arm and slightly better range.)

[Joseph]

Stubbs.

[lollipopcurve]

Put them both at Louisville and you'll have abetter idea.

For the record, from 2008:

At Sarasota
Heisey .287/.381/.438
Stubbs .261/.366/.406

At Chattanooga
Heisey .316/.341/.494
Stubbs .315/.400/.402