Who is Redszone's #17 prospect?

[lollipopcurve]

That is probably true. That doesn't make him a better prospect though, because we can't identify the guys who will flame out vs the guy who is very likely a 4th/5th outfielder.

It does make him a better prospect, in my book. Keep in mind that Phipps has legit tools and plays good enough defense that he could spend time as a regular.

[dougdirt]

It does make him a better prospect, in my book. Keep in mind that Phipps has legit tools and plays good enough defense that he could spend time as a regular.

Eh, Phipps has tools, but his skills right now don't leave me with the confidence that he could hit enough to be a starter right now.

And until you can determine which of the guys ahead of him for sure will be busts, you can't exactly rank him ahead of them.

[lollipopcurve]

Eh, Phipps has tools, but his skills right now don't leave me with the confidence that he could hit enough to be a starter right now.

That's fine. I don't think he's hit his ceiling. Maybe you do.

And until you can determine which of the guys ahead of him for sure will be busts, you can't exactly rank him ahead of them.

Put it this way -- odds are still decidedly against guys like Rosa, Duran and Cingrani ever having big league careers. They have a LONG way to go.

[dougdirt]

That's fine. I don't think he's hit his ceiling. Maybe you do.

I don't think he has hit his ceiling, because as you said, he has tools. I just also think he is very far away from his ceiling still, with his entire value, if he were in the Majors tomorrow, coming from his defense.

Put it this way -- odds are still decidedly against guys like Rosa, Duran and Cingrani ever having big league careers. They have a LONG way to go.

Sure, but I also think its more likely that guys like Rosa or Cingrani become contributors than a guy like Phipps does. Duran, super far away. More potential though.

[lollipopcurve]

I don't think he has hit his ceiling, because as you said, he has tools. I just also think he is very far away from his ceiling still, with his entire value, if he were in the Majors tomorrow, coming from his defense.

I like his bat better than you do.

Sure, but I also think its more likely that guys like Rosa or Cingrani become contributors than a guy like Phipps does. Duran, super far away. More potential though.

I think Phipps has a much better chance than those guys, from where we sit now. Duran -- again, I just don't see him being good enough on defense, and he's looking like an all-or-nothing bat.

[mth123]

If Phipps is getting there purely on defense and tools, how is that different than Drew Stubbs?

[lollipopcurve]

If Phipps is getting there purely on defense and tools, how is that different than Drew Stubbs?

Your point being?

Stubbs is a well established major league CF. Great outcome for any OF on this list.

[mth123]

Your point being?

Stubbs is a well established major league CF. Great outcome for any OF on this list.

My point is, at a similar career point, Stubbs too was all tools and defense but was a top 10 prospect. Phipps is a bit old for his league, but Stubbs wasn't exactly young either at AA and AAA. Why is Phipps being so discounted after a great season in the upper levels? Its actually one more great season than Stubbs had as a minor leaguer. Why was there so much more faith at the time that Stubbs would put it together and very little faith in Phipps now?

I have some others ahead of Phipps, but I agree with you that he shouldn't be written-off so quickly.

[dougdirt]

I think Phipps has a much better chance than those guys, from where we sit now. Duran -- again, I just don't see him being good enough on defense, and he's looking like an all-or-nothing bat.

With Duran, right now, he is a disaster defensively. But, he has the tools to be good out there. He is actually an above average runner. He also has a cannon for an arm. He just needs time to get things together. Offensively, he has a long way to go too. But, the tools are there for it to work. He gets the strikezone and he has power for hours. It is too early for him here.

With Phipps, I think we just don't agree on that bat (like you said) or come close to it. I guess I have to ask, what sells you on his bat?

[dougdirt]

If Phipps is getting there purely on defense and tools, how is that different than Drew Stubbs?

Stubbs has better defense than Phipps, easily. Phipps can play center, but he is more of a good corner guy. Stubbs is an outstanding center fielder.

As for the bat.... I would easily take Stubbs over Phipps. Both guys have contact issues. Stubbs has more power. Stubbs has better plate discipline and strikezone understanding.

Stubbs is not even a year older than Phipps.

So really, the two aren't that comparable.

[lollipopcurve]

I guess I have to ask, what sells you on his bat?

The explosion across AA/AAA last year -- I don't buy that the BABIP was all luck or that the plateauing of the peripherals is a sign of his not having made a significant advancement as a hitter, basically. I think he was out there making solid hard contact all year long. I also like the excellent BB:K posted this winter, a sign that he continues to learn. Combine that with the reports for years that he's got excellent (translation: major league) tools, and you've got a scenario that sounds like the classic "lightbulb going on."

[lollipopcurve]

Stubbs has better defense than Phipps, easily. Phipps can play center, but he is more of a good corner guy. Stubbs is an outstanding center fielder.

I don't buy this. Eric Davis has given Phipps a lot of praise as a CF. And I think Stubbs is overrated defensively.

As for the bat.... I would easily take Stubbs over Phipps. Both guys have contact issues. Stubbs has more power. Stubbs has better plate discipline and strikezone understanding.

Stubbs is not even a year older than Phipps.

So really, the two aren't that comparable.

This is an easy position to take, given the paths these players have taken so far. We'll see if Phipps gets a chance to compete with Stubbs. Low dollar signings from the DR have to earn every inch up the ladder to get on the same rung as 2 million dollar 1st round picks, that's for sure. But I wouldn't be surprised if Phipps gave Stubbs a run for his money, if given the opportunity to compete.

[Kc61]

Keep in mind on Phipps that it matters a lot if he can play major league CF. A corner outfiielder needs a truly superior bat. A CF not so much.

Most guys who play decent minor league CF are really corner outfielders. Heisey is an example. Reasonable center fielder but not the kind of superior CF defender to start every day out there.

Stubbs is a major league starting CF. Is Phipps? Is Heisey? Is Sappelt? Not sure they are.

[lollipopcurve]

Stubbs is a major league starting CF. Is Phipps? Is Heisey? Is Sappelt? Not sure they are.

Is Jon Jay? Andres Torres? (starting CFs for the last 2 World Series champs) Is Josh Hamilton?

I think the notion that you have to have a CF who runs like a deer and has a huge arm may be something of a myth. Especially in GAB, where there's a lot less room to cover. And I'll repeat that I think Stubbs looks like a better defender than he really is.

[dougdirt]

The explosion across AA/AAA last year -- I don't buy that the BABIP was all luck or that the plateauing of the peripherals is a sign of his not having made a significant advancement as a hitter, basically. I think he was out there making solid hard contact all year long. I also like the excellent BB:K posted this winter, a sign that he continues to learn. Combine that with the reports for years that he's got excellent (translation: major league) tools, and you've got a scenario that sounds like the classic "lightbulb going on."

I guess my question is this: If he truly made progress that would explain him barrelling the ball more, why didn't it also show up in his strikeout rate? A guy who all of a sudden can get the barrel on the ball more should also be able to get the bat on the ball more, shouldn't he?

I think Phipps did indeed improve some this year. I just think it was small increments that he got better and was boosted a ton by an insanely high BABIP.