I don't know. The odds are much better you pin them inside the 20 (fair catch at the 10, maybe even a good bounce inside the 5) then converting a 4th and 22.
As you said, worst case the punt is a touchback and it 's a 15 yard net, but at least you'd still have Pittsburgh backed up in a low scoring/field position type of game. Not getting it on 4th and 22 you give Pittsburgh pretty decent field position.