BP Reds Top 20

[dougdirt]

Billy Hamilton is incredibly fast. And his plate approach is a little bit better than Yorman's is. With that said, he is also two years older. Projection wise, I don't think its really close in terms of offense. Billy Hamilton isn't going to hit for power. Yorman Rodriguez has above average raw power. Average wise, I don't think Hamilton has an advantage either. Both project to be good defenders.

I have been saying the last two weeks or so since Top 100's have started coming out that the pendulum has swung a little too far towards Billy Hamilton in terms of how good of a prospect that he is. Some people fall in love with speed too much and I think that is what we are seeing here. Speed is a complimentary skill, not a main skill. It can help out your other skills some (turning a few singles into doubles and a few doubles into triples as well as a few outs into singles), but overall bat on ball and plate discipline mean immensely more than speed. Hamilton is solid with the bat, don't get me wrong. But if he doesn't hit some HR's, and there is some concern that he might not be able to hit more than a few, what is his upside at the plate?

[membengal]

There once was a class of player who had immense value even if not a lot of power. If he is delino deshields at his best, or jose reyes, I am more than okay w/ that. The good news is they are both great prospects.

[dougdirt]

There once was a class of player who had immense value even if not a lot of power. If he is delino deshields at his best, or jose reyes, I am more than okay w/ that. The good news is they are both great prospects.

Jose Reyes has power.

[GOYA]

I tend to agree with Doug that Billy is being touted a little stronger than he should. That's no slight to Billy. He could very well be a strong offensive threat but he's going to have to steal a lot of bases to be one. In the Vince Coleman range. If he doesn't, he's still going to be an asset.

[membengal]

Jose Reyes has power.

Yes, Reyes does NOW, but not the kind of power that Y-Rod projects to. And, while we are here, this is the link to Jose Reyes' minor league stats...check out his rookie numbers:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=reyes-005jos

That would be zero homeruns in Reyes rookie ball year...(and a .677 OPS). Just saying. Yes, Reyes was younger at that same level, but let's not pretend that raw power was ever really a part of his scouting report. His prospect star was based on that blinding speed. And truly plus speed has a real value. If that's what Hamilton has, I get why the scouts are interested.

On the larger discussion, I think Doug, you may be under-valuing the speed component a bit, frankly.

[dougdirt]

Yes, Reyes does NOW, but not the kind of power that Y-Rod projects to. And, while we are here, this is the link to Jose Reyes' minor league stats...check out his rookie numbers:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=reyes-005jos

That would be zero homeruns in Reyes rookie ball year...(and a .677 OPS). Just saying. Yes, Reyes was younger at that same level, but let's not pretend that raw power was ever really a part of his scouting report. His prospect star was based on that blinding speed. And truly plus speed has a real value. If that's what Hamilton has, I get why the scouts are interested.

On the larger discussion, I think Doug, you may be under-valuing the speed component a bit, frankly.

I can't say that I was into the prospect scene enough to know the full scouting report on Reyes in rookie ball, but I do know that the reports on Hamilton's power aren't projecting him to be where Reyes has shown to be.

Lets also note that when Jose Reyes was 19, he was in A+/AA and showing solid power already (particularly in the HR department). Billy Hamilton, in two seasons, has 1 HR that went over the fence. That is a bit of a concern IMO.

[Roush's socks]

I can't say that I was into the prospect scene enough to know the full scouting report on Reyes in rookie ball, but I do know that the reports on Hamilton's power aren't projecting him to be where Reyes has shown to be.

Lets also note that when Jose Reyes was 19, he was in A+/AA and showing solid power already (particularly in the HR department). Billy Hamilton, in two seasons, has 1 HR that went over the fence. That is a bit of a concern IMO.

I've always thought that if a SS can OBP at a decent rate, and play GG type defense, that most teams would take that even with little or no power. The key is getting on base at a good rate if you don't have HR power. But those kinds of players, especially when they're fast, can have value for a team's offense.

[dougdirt]

I've always thought that if a SS can OBP at a decent rate, and play GG type defense, that most teams would take that even with little or no power. The key is getting on base at a good rate if you don't have HR power. But those kinds of players, especially when they're fast, can have value for a team's offense.

Certainly. But guys with power that doesn't translate to 10 HR's a season, there are some concerns about how their offense translates. I looked at players from 2000-2009 with 400 at bats in the Majors (in a season, not over that entire time). There were over 1800 players that fit that mold. There were 453 players who had a AB/HR of 50 or higher. There were only 144 of those players with an OBP of .350 or higher, but there were 192 under .330 too.

Of course Hamilton could certainly be among that 144 group, but there is also a good chance he would be in the 192 group as well. Guys without power just have a lot more to do in order to provide acceptable offense. Some guys can, but a majority of them struggle to be merely average hitters.

[bubbachunk]

I don't think anyone actually believes Hamilton is destined for 2B. All that speculation came from the fact that the Reds played him at 2B for the sake of giving him versatility. If Hamilton ends up at second base, it'll almost definitely be because there are better options at SS--not due to any inadequacy of his own.

BP has voiced concerns about his arm playing out at SS. That sticks out to me

[Benihana]

Billy Hamilton is incredibly fast. And his plate approach is a little bit better than Yorman's is. With that said, he is also two years older. Projection wise, I don't think its really close in terms of offense. Billy Hamilton isn't going to hit for power. Yorman Rodriguez has above average raw power. Average wise, I don't think Hamilton has an advantage either. Both project to be good defenders.

I have been saying the last two weeks or so since Top 100's have started coming out that the pendulum has swung a little too far towards Billy Hamilton in terms of how good of a prospect that he is. Some people fall in love with speed too much and I think that is what we are seeing here. Speed is a complimentary skill, not a main skill. It can help out your other skills some (turning a few singles into doubles and a few doubles into triples as well as a few outs into singles), but overall bat on ball and plate discipline mean immensely more than speed. Hamilton is solid with the bat, don't get me wrong. But if he doesn't hit some HR's, and there is some concern that he might not be able to hit more than a few, what is his upside at the plate?

Agree with this assessment.

We have seen many a Felix Pie and Carlos Gomezes come and go as "top prospects" mainly due to their speed and defense. Once they arrive at the major league level and cannot hit enough to stay in a lineup, they fall by the wasteside (at least compared to where they ranked as prospects.)

I hope the same doesn't hold true for Hamilton, but it should be kept in mind as we see him shoot up the prospect rankings.

[Scrap Irony]

BP has voiced concerns about his arm playing out at SS. That sticks out to me

BP is wrong, simply put. While not a cannon, Hamilton's arm is plenty good enough for SS. Quick, accurate release on a line. It is, IMO, his worst defensive tool, but I believe BP is nitpicking a bit. It's better than Gonzalez's is right now, Hairston's, or Keppinger's, to use three former Reds. It's not better than Janish's or Cozart's.

As to his power, I don't care if he can hit the fence with the ball. If he can hit with enough power to keep opposing pitchers honest (and he's proven so far he can), he's a top prospect. His speed will get him enough doubles and triples to keep his slugging in the 400+ range, and, as he fills out a bit, power might very well come.

Remember, he's only been playing baseball full time for a year or so. He's got all the athletic tools. Those types of players often fill out and develop power (a la Reyes, as mem has rightly pointed out) as they mature in the game of baseball.

[dougdirt]

BP is wrong, simply put. While not a cannon, Hamilton's arm is plenty good enough for SS. Quick, accurate release on a line. It is, IMO, his worst defensive tool, but I believe BP is nitpicking a bit. It's better than Gonzalez's is right now, Hairston's, or Keppinger's, to use three former Reds. It's not better than Janish's or Cozart's.

As to his power, I don't care if he can hit the fence with the ball. If he can hit with enough power to keep opposing pitchers honest (and he's proven so far he can), he's a top prospect. His speed will get him enough doubles and triples to keep his slugging in the 400+ range, and, as he fills out a bit, power might very well come.

Remember, he's only been playing baseball full time for a year or so. He's got all the athletic tools. Those types of players often fill out and develop power (a la Reyes, as mem has rightly pointed out) as they mature in the game of baseball.

Two points.... his power has not really proven anything. A lot of guys hit for some sort of power in the Pioneer League. It is very much a hitters league. It remains to be seen as to how much power he actually has now and how much he will hit for in the future.

The other point is in regards to Reyes. When Reyes was 19, he hit his fair share of HR's in A+ and AA. The comparison for power growth isn't really there. Can Hamilton develop some power? Sure. But pointing to Reyes as an example isn't really there. Reyes his 4 times as many HR's at age 19 (granted in full season compared to short season which is ~60% of the playing time), but he also did it 2-3 leagues higher as well as playing in pitchers leagues as opposed to the hitters league that Hamilton was playing in.

One more point on Hamilton's situation.... what separates him from Dee Gordon of the Dodgers? Gordon showed a little bit of pop in the Pioneer League (granted a little less), but it has all but disappeared since he left. HE has all the tools as well and scouts love him. Size wise, Hamilton has a better chance to fill out IMO, but by how much I don't really know. Still, until Hamilton starts to show some HR pop, he shouldn't be ranked in the Top 50 prospects in baseball. Guys can be valuable without HR power, but they are very few and far between.

[Scrap Irony]

If he OPSes 350 as a good defensive SS, I don't care if he hits one homer over his major league career. He's a Top 50 guy.

And that looks not only possible, at this point, but probable.

There are very few guys who have the hit tool, the speed, and the patience of Hamilton and don't obp 350+. Add in plus tools, developing power (400+ slugging), and a body that history insists is likely to grow out, and he's a very good prospect.

Perhaps, like Gordon, he won't pan out. But that's the reason he a prospect and not a finished product. If given a choice, give me the kid who walks, has all the tools, and is likely to develop more power rather than the guy who only has power. That way lies Samone Peters.

[dougdirt]

If he OPSes 350 as a good defensive SS, I don't care if he hits one homer over his major league career. He's a Top 50 guy.

And that looks not only possible, at this point, but probable.

There are very few guys who have the hit tool, the speed, and the patience of Hamilton and don't obp 350+. Add in plus tools, developing power (400+ slugging), and a body that history insists is likely to grow out, and he's a very good prospect.

Perhaps, like Gordon, he won't pan out. But that's the reason he a prospect and not a finished product. If given a choice, give me the kid who walks, has all the tools, and is likely to develop more power rather than the guy who only has power. That way lies Samone Peters.

I think we are jumping the gun on Hamilton by saying it looks probably that he will OBP .350 in the majors. Big time. Heck, I think we might be jumping the gun by saying he will do in in Dayton this year a little bit.

I simply pointed to Gordon because he has a fairly similar skillset to that of Hamilton. Put the ball in play and run because you are ridiculously fast. I believe Hamilton is the better prospect because his defense is better today and I think he has a little more power potential, though mainly in the doubles/triples department.

Hamilton is a good prospect, but I just can't see ranking a guy who has shown absolutely no true power to speak of in two years of pro baseball as a Top 50 prospect when he has yet to even have a single at bat in full season ball. It simply doesn't make sense to me. I like Hamilton and I am optimistic about his future, but I just can't see him being ranked as highly as he has been by some this offseason so far.

[membengal]

I can see Hamilton is going to be the reverse Stubbs with you, Doug. At least I know what the arguments will be about for the next three years.