Danny Dorn
Matt Fairel
Josh Fellhauer
Mariekson Gregorius
Donnie Joseph
Sam Lecure
Devin Mesoraco
Logan Ondrusek
Miguel Rojas
Enerio Del Rosario
Mark Serrano
Juan Silva
Jordan Smith
Juan Carlos Sulbaran
Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette
Humberto Valor
Pedro Viola
Other - Name him
Sure he walked less, but he was also facing pitchers who can throw strikes when they want to. Silva may have more potential at the plate if we toss out positions (which we shouldn't do), but when we account for positions I don't think Silva has more potential in his bat at all.
It depends on if Silva is a legit CF or not. If he is, then his numbers at the plate as a rookie are impressive. If he's not, then it's not as impressive.
Mesoraco really has yet to prove anything at the plate (unless you consider his .710 OPS at Dayton a huge victory). Silva's numbers in rookie ball were much better than Mes' and he did it at 18 instead of 19 in the same league with approximately the same number of plate appearences. Sure, small sample size...but I like the way Silva projects better.
I don't think I have talked to anyone who see's Silva staying in CF. I don't pay much attention to a guys OPS as much as I pay attention to their rates at which they hit for power, walk and strikeout. Given how BABIP can cause havok on a guys OBP and SLG, its far down my list on things to look at. Mesoraco has had solid peripherals even if the slash stats haven't looked good.
Don't get me wrong, I really like Silva's swing. I think there is some good potential in his bat. I just don't think he is a better prospect than a catcher who has good defense and strong peripherals that is 3 levels higher than him while still being young for his level.
I might agree with you on the SLG part, but I think OBP is certainly important to watch and Mez, at any level, has yet to show that he can consistently get on at a good clip while cutting down on the Ks. I don't think Mez has proven much of anything yet. He needs to put together a solid and consistent season first before I become a believer. He does have age on his side though.
BABIP certainly has something to do with OBP% also.
The way I see it with Mes is he's constantly fighting against the current. He's always being pushed forward to a level at which he is not yet quite ready to be at. Until he sinks (which despite the slash lines he hasn't) or swims his future isn't determined. I know some want to think treading water is sinking but I don't. That said it's not yet swimming either and Silva tossed right into the current seemed to come out swimming from the get go, certainly is something to appreciate. Doug makes a great argument for Mes IMO but bottomline is Mes must reward my faith in him at some point and at least doggey paddle. Until then give me Silva or maybe even better yet Dorn who I feel can hit major league pitching if given the chance.
That said Dorn has little chance to win so I'll go with Silva.
Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 11-29-2009 at 10:50 PM.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
Certainly OBP is important, but BABIP has cost Devin AVG/Hits, thus making his OBP lower. If you gave Mesoraco a .300 BABIP this season he would have posted a .331 OBP this past season. Not anything great of course, but certainly better than what he has been posting. The key thing is how the power develops. If he can be a 15-20 HR guy and keep his K/BB rates and a .290 BABIP he should be a decent hitter for a catcher. I don't know, I just put more into peripherals as a players skillset than slash stats.
I went off the reservation a bit and voted for Donnie Joseph. I'm not sure he's the best prospect remaining, but I think he deserves to be at least in the conversation.
"In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra
This is a bit off topic, but can defensive positioning be accounted for in BABIP? For example, assume a player's hit charts shows that a player is an extreme pull hitter and to account for that the defense shifts accordingly, wouldn't that possibly result in a lower BABIP that doesn't necessary reflect bad luck?
Last edited by Orenda; 11-30-2009 at 11:13 AM.
Your right that's probably more of a MLB question. But I was also wondering about the validity of reported statistics in the minor leagues. For example I know I've seen you post line drive% and other supporting peripherals in your analysis of minor league players which help to paint a more complete picture of a prospect. But who collects? and how is that information collected? For example, line drive percentage could be pretty subjective depending on who was collecting the data. Do the scouts and minor league staff of the Reds collect all of that, or is it available from independent sources.
There are stringers at each game who input the data for MLB/Milb.com for the 'GameDay' application. While they don't offer it on the page for lower minor leagues (currently only in AA and AAA), if you know the code you can get the lower level games. The guys are obviously going to have a differing opinion for home/road games, but at the end of the day it generally evens itself out. Every now and again you will see a few outliers to that data, but it isn't very often.
Mesoraco, and it seems to me the next couple are still going to be fairly clear. After that, I'd like to have some information on the injuries to Lotzkar and Hildenbrandt, as I still think that, if they are completely recovered, they've got enough upside to make them credible picks in our 20's. Anybody have any information on those guys' condition? Thanks.
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